I've been racking my brains about this for a day or two now. I think it's vital when you approach such subjects that you disregard any notions that the manager is an idiot, because he isn't. Equally, if he is gradually easing Xabi towards the exit door, it won't be a decision which he's taken lightly or without good reason. So why is it? Speaking as someone who has many times been told that a dildo seller by definition has no clue, I accept that I don't know the inner workings of Rafa's mind, but a little specuation wouldn't hurt. If nothing else it'll pass the time and might even allow me to better understand a decision and a move which seems at first pretty baffling.
Firstly, a couple of cards on the table. I think Xabi needed to step out of the pocket more often, and he's done that this season to great effect. "The pocket" is that little area in front of the centre halves but behind where a normal midfielder would go. It's a fairly comfortable place to play as the opposition are by and large fairly happy to let you play there without closing you down. The problems with playing there if like Xabi you don't have any pace, is that the oposition centre forward can squeeze you towards their midfielders, and you can find yourself trying to operate within a box which has ever diminishing sides. Anyway without going into too much, I think he needed to advance 20 or 30 yards up the pitch from time to time in order to make himself more effective. He's done it and I think he was the best midfielder in the Premiership (central that is) in the season just gone.
So again, why would Rafa be considering accepting offers then for a player who by all accounts doesn't want to leave?
What has the manager seen that we haven't, what does he know that we don't, and what are his plans for the future which seemingly don't include our best central midfielder now Gerrard doesn't play there anymore?
Here's my guess:
I think that Rafa is looking at our number of draws over the last couple fo seasons, and realises as we all do that it is a huge problem. I think it's fair to say that if we again draw 10 or 11 matches or whatever it was, we'll never be Champions in England. The problem is that teams like the Mancs and Chelsea are just too efficient at rolling over the smaller teams. Everton finished fifth and Villa sixth, and it's already at the stage where if you are playing either of them even Away, you really are looking to win the game. So obviously he knows the draws are a problem, and I think replacing Alonso is part of the solution in his eyes.
I think Rafa thinks he could do with a double figure goalscorer from central midfield, and it obviously ain't going to be Masherano unless we are talking career goals. I think he is looking back to Baracka or whatever he was called at Valencia (top player too) and considering that if we had someone similar (a Scholes in his prime perhaps) then we would really be onto something.
As for Xabi, he has moved out of the pocket with great effect. If I was playing against us, such has been his improvement that I'd man mark him. So far, nobody is doing that from what I've seen as they concentrate on Gerrard, but I'd man mark Alonso for sure. I'd sit my midfielders in and around him, diminish his influence, snap at his heels, decrese his availability for the pass from the centre halves. Why? Because everything we do currently comes through Xabi, he's the conductor of the orchestra.
And if they do that, what happens? Well my guess is that Xabi would be easier to squeeze than a Gerrard. We don't move the ball quickly or fluently enough to be able to pass it around barriers Barcelona style, and nor does Alonso posess the necessary gears to be able to get out of the line of fire like a Gerrard. Xabi would probably find himself coming deeper and deeper to get posession, back into the pocket, back next to Masherano, and back into being squeezed by the centre forward.
So perhaps that's it. Perhaps Rafa is thinking ahead, guaging that although Xabi has been excellent this season, perhaps opposition teams will be as effective at curtailing that as they were the last time he had an excellent period. Perhaps he thinks that selling now is absolutely maximising his resale value. Maybe that ten goal a season central midfielder is the missing piece of the jigsaw, who knows.
For me, I wouldn't look where he's looking for the hole in the dyke. I'd look at a really top class centre half, which would free Xabi up to go even further forward, would release Masherano to go on even more mad dog rampages, and would mean that on more occasions we'd only need to score once rather than twice. A really good centre half might even score four or five goals himself.
I think though the moemory of Barracka is in Rafa's mind, and neither of his current central midfielders fit the mould.