Liverpool FC Forum

[Boocity]

I did the results predictor on the BBC Sport site and with my predictions we still finished 4th only 5 points behind scum who finished third and Arsenal won the title 1 point ahead of Chelsea, The best bit though was the bitters finished in 7th behind Portsmouth and Villa    

Ok so i will never the pools with my predictions but its worth it if scum fail.

[Owzat]

Well we SHOULD be looking to make Arsenal nervous, they are eight points clear of us but have to play the mancs which could make it five and then the bitters could grab a point so that's a chance at more catching up. Given their form of late, which is a lot of draws, they could well drop other points including a not so easy visit to SOL. In terms of keeping the bitters at bay I reckon we need seven points minimum, the bitters have two very loseable games so that may be enough, but we should be winning both home games and probably Fulham away and who knows with the other two games.

Current Form - Last ten games

Arsenal 71 - DWLDDDDWWW = 17/30

Liverpool 63 - DWLWWWWWDW = 23/30

Bitters 60 - WLDLWWWWDD = 17/30

Easy run-ins? The comparison of tougher/comparable fixtures

Pos. Arsenal---------Liverpool---------Bitters

01. Man Utd (a)---------------------------------------
02. ---------------------------------------Chelsea (h)
03. ---------------------------------------Arsenal (a)
04. -------------------------------------------------------
05. Bitters (h)----------------------------------------
06. -------------------------------------------------------
07. --------------------------------------Aston Villa (h)
08. -------------------Blackburn (h)--------------------
09. -------------------Man City (h)--------------------
10. --------------------------------------------------------
11. -------------------Tottenham (a)------------------
12. --------------------------------------Newcastle (h)
13. Sunderland (a)-------------------------------------
14. -------------------------------------------------------
15. -------------------------------------------------------
16. Reading (h)----------------------------------------
17. ------------------------Brum (a)--------Brum (a)
18. -------------------------------------------------------
19. --------------------Fulham (a)--------------------
20. Derby (a)-----------------------------------------

Our two hardest games are at home, the bitters have to play three of the top seven and Arsenal two of the top five. In THEORY our toughest game is Tottenham which may not be given their end of season has begun already, if we outclass the two in relegation strife as we should then there's no reason we can't get five out of five.

BUT we are the only team left in Europe of the three............

[Owzat]

Man Utd (a) L0-3
Everton (h) W1-0
Arsenal (a) D1-1
Blackburn (h) W3-1

Fulham (a)
Birmingham (a)
Man City (h)
Tottenham (a)

So we've picked up seven points out of twelve which means nineteen are STILL possible and we're now FIVE points better off than we were in the same four games last season. In theory we could win all four, although the Champions league might prove a distraction and we've not won at Brum in the league under Rafa.

Can we catch Arsenal? In theory they should be ok with three games against bottom half sides and a five point cushion, but if the bitters can take a point off them which won't be too damaging to us, and Sunderland can take all three, then it could come down to GD and they are just one better off than us although they do play Derby and have scored more goals (believe it or not)

And on the matter of improvement, we are now two points worse off than last season with four games left, so there has been improvement. Unfortunately it would not be improved on our best season under Rafa and not a title challenge, but 78 points would not be a terrible season. 29 points in our last 11 league games is title form, in fact it is record title form as you'd get 100 points if you kept it up. Just a shame we drew too many games early on and lost one or two silly games along the way. The difference between us and the mancs is we've drawn seven games more games than them, we've lost as many/few as them. Only Chelsea and Arsenal have lost fewer

[Owzat]

Man Utd (a) L0-3
Everton (h) W1-0
Arsenal (a) D1-1
Blackburn (h) W3-1
Fulham (a) W2-0

Birmingham (a)
Man City (h)
Tottenham (a)

Well we're up to 10 points out of 15 so far with 19 the maximum. Looks like Arsenal have all but sewn up third and we've pretty much done likewise with fourth. 10 points is a massive improvement on the two we picked up in the same fixtures last season, perhaps a reflection of what we should have got last season more than a massive improvement in the team overall. To not win any of those games including Blackburn and the bitters at home and Fulham away is pretty bad, Fulham did come so close to the end of the season that we put out a weakened side ahead of the Champions League final.

[RedBlood]

i said at the start of this thread we would get between 15 and 19 points and finnish within 10points of the champions and im sticking to that

[Owzat]

Unfortunately that covers TWO voting options.

[Seano Kop]

I reckon:

Blackburn (h) W 3-1
Fulham (a) W 2-0
Birmingham (a) W 3-0
Man City (h) W 4-0
Tottenham (a) W 3-1

There is 15 points from 15 in our remaining matches

So far so good!!

[Owzat]

I did the results predictor on the BBC Sport site and with my predictions we still finished 4th only 5 points behind scum who finished third and Arsenal won the title 1 point ahead of Chelsea, The best bit though was the bitters finished in 7th behind Portsmouth and Villa    

Ok so i will never the pools with my predictions but its worth it if scum fail.

The bitters needed to start looking over their shoulders a lot sooner, they could easily lose their last three games - at home against unpredictable villa who are second top scorers, away to Arsenal who are difficult to beat at the Emirates and at home to new found form Newcastle. I think we'll probably deny citeh from catching the bitters, but villa and pompey must be hoping to catch them.

I just wish the bitters had got relegated when they continually struggled and got away with it

[Owzat]

Man Utd (a) L0-3
Everton (h) W1-0
Arsenal (a) D1-1
Blackburn (h) W3-1
Fulham (a) W2-0
Birmingham (a) D2-2

Man City (h)
Tottenham (a)

11 out of 18 so far means we'd need to win both remaining games for the people who voted 76-79 points to be right. It's not been too bad considering it's been mainly our reserves for the last four games who are unbeaten and picked up 8 out of 12 points. In fact this is our FOURTH run of seven or more unbeaten in a row this season, perhaps the most impressive despite not being the longest as we've played Chelsea and Arsenal (away) in this run.

Liverpool have now drawn EIGHT games 2-2 under Rafa, I had a look at the results next game for any omens :-

HOME NEXT GAME

D0-0 vs Chelsea (Champions League)
W5-2 vs Havant & W (FA Cup)

AWAY NEXT GAME

W5-3 vs Luton (FA Cup)
W2-1 vs bitters (Premiership)
W1-0 vs Deportivo (Champions League)
W2-1 vs Portsmouth (Premiership)

NEUTRAL NEXT GAME

L1-2 vs AC Milan (Champions League Final)

So if you want an omen, Liverpool have won every away game under Rafa which followed a 2-2 draw.

[Owzat]

Man Utd (a) L0-3
Everton (h) W1-0
Arsenal (a) D1-1
Blackburn (h) W3-1
Fulham (a) W2-0
Birmingham (a) D2-2
Man City (h) W1-0

Tottenham (a)

14 out of 21, it now all hinges on the spudz away game. We're having a better season in terms of points than last season, last season was a huge disappointment in the league.

For the 54.39% majority (as stands) to be right we need all three points from WHL. For those who think 73-76 points is an improvement, consider the number of points needed to win the league :-

2007/08 : 84-87
2006/07 : 89
2005/06 : 91
2004/05 : 95
2003/04 : 90
2002/03 : 83
2001/02 : 87
2000/01 : 80
1999/00 : 91
1998/99 : 79

So asssuming the mancs win their last game away at Wigan, the average number of points to win the Premiership in the past ten seasons will be 87 - still five points more than Rafa has managed in his best effort. And in the last five seasons it would be 90, the standard has gone up. So somehow we need to find another 10 points a season or more to be in title contention, not drawing many at home would be a good start but then we'll probably compensate by poor away form.

[alxy]

Actually, simplifying the analysis, all we need to do is just to improve our record against the big boys. Imagine if we had won both games against ManU. We would now be on 79pts while ManU would be on 78pts. We'd be in front of them! Add a win over Arsenal and Chelsea, and that's be another 4 pts extra.

So current league table would look like this:

1. Liverpool: 83pts
2. Chelsea: 80pts
3. Arsenal: 79pts
4. ManU: 78pts

Of course, those are BIG IFs.... but entirely possible.

[Owzat]

Actually, simplifying the analysis, all we need to do is just to improve our record against the big boys. Imagine if we had won both games against ManU. We would now be on 79pts while ManU would be on 78pts. We'd be in front of them! Add a win over Arsenal and Chelsea, and that's be another 4 pts extra.

So current league table would look like this:

1. Liverpool: 83pts
2. Chelsea: 80pts
3. Arsenal: 79pts
4. ManU: 78pts

Of course, those are BIG IFs.... but entirely possible.

Funny you should mention our record against the big boys. I was intrigued as to how crucial the games vs the big boys were to winning the league. Firstly here's our record since 2000/01 against Chelsea, Man Utd and Arsenal*

00/01 P6 W3 D1 L2 PTS 10
01/02 P6 W3 D1 L2 PTS 10
02/03 P6 W1 D2 L3 PTS 5
03/04 P6 W2 D0 L4 PTS 6
-------------------------
04/05 P6 W1 D0 L5 PTS 3
05/06 P6 W1 D1 L4 PTS 4
06/07 P6 W2 D0 L4 PTS 6
07/08 P6 W0 D4 L2 PTS 4

*I know it hasn't been that big four all those seasons, but Chelsea have still been as difficult to beat as any other one off top four finisher. We didn't beat them at SB for many a year until recently

So Houllier in his last four seasons managed 31 against the other big sides and Rafa has managed just 17 in four seasons.



One telling table for those eight seasons is the comparitive head to heads for all the sides.

Man Utd P48 W20 D12 L16 F63 A50 PTS 72
Chelsea P48 W18 D17 L13 F64 A50 PTS 71
Arsenal P48 W17 D18 L13 F63 A67 PTS 69
Liverpool P48 W13 D9 L26 F46 A69 PTS 48

So we've lost over half our games in that mini-table, despite the all-conquering mancs' reputation they haven't outscored Chelsea! And the others account for every single league title.


And the most interesting stat, if not significant, is that of whether the team that wins the title tops the head to head table, the points vs the rest or both. We topped the head to head table only once and, believe it or not, the points vs the rest in 2005/06 (but we were 11 points off the pace in the head to head).

Most head to head wins league : 5/7
Most points vs other wins league : 5/7
Both of the above wins league : 3/7

What we don't need to be doing is lagging way behind in BOTH ! If you take away the points from head to heads Chelsea would have won the league already and we'd have a shot at finishing second.

[Owzat]

Man Utd (a) L0-3
Everton (h) W1-0
Arsenal (a) D1-1
Blackburn (h) W3-1
Fulham (a) W2-0
Birmingham (a) D2-2
Man City (h) W1-0
Tottenham (a) W2-0

So 17 out of 24 just sneaks us into the second bracket. An improvement in terms of points, and our fewest defeats in the league under Rafa, but a dropped place and waaaaaaayyyyyyyy too many draws.

Rafa's next domestic win will be his 100th in domestic competitions. And maybe a couple of final stats that tell a story

- Rafa is still SEVENTEEN wins away from his 100th in the Premiership and that's after four seasons.
- Despite a much improved squad, we only won four more games this season than in Rafa's first in charge - and seven less than Rafa's second season in which we played only three games more

[The Manhattan Project]

DRAW vs Man Utd
WIN vs Everton
DRAW vs Arsenal
WIN vs Blackburn
WIN vs Fulham
WIN vs Birmingham
WIN vs Man City
WIN vs Spurs


20 points.

Damn.

Two results prevented Manhattan from being a prophet like that bloke Nostradamianus.

[Torres25]

Owzats a