Liverpool FC Forum

[greenred]

Honestly,to win the league we probably need 28 points out of 30.

We need to take the Chelsea match as a starting point and try to win every match,something we haven't always done recently.

[aCe']

probably 20-22... thats 6 wins 2 draws and a loss against the mancs and Fulham.. Agree wit mick where he says that after the 10 games we'll probably be outta the title race... shame really because the january transfer window couldnt have come at a better time for us and with a coupla good additions we could have reignited our title challenge but instead we got out and... yea well..

[Owzat]

I´d like to say 30 but thats daft. Instead I dont think we´ll lose in the next 10 games, we just wont win them:

The mancs may not need to beat us and be happy to settle for a draw. That could either work in our favour as they look to disrupt our game, or work against us as they are less attacking than usual.

I'd be tempted to leave Torres and Gerrard out, give the manc manager a problem with tactics - usually to mark those two out of the game. Worked for us at Anfield.

I think we'll probably pick up low 20s points, we need to win high 20s. We're putting zero pressure on the mancs with draws, they can make up three of our draws with just ONE win. However if we keep winning then they have to win to stay the pace, that's why they've gone to the top because noone put any pressure on them with a run of wins.

Now Keane has gone I fear we may struggle to compete with just one striker and in three competitions. The resumption of the Champions League may prove pivotal, I'd happily go out to Real Madrid if the mancs then found their run to the semis arduous. No point trying to run before we can walk, focus on the league and when we've cracked that THEN try to do a double or treble

[Reg]

The problem is you cant leave Gerrard or Torres out, they have to play EVERY game hereon in - league, CL, FA Cup the whole shebang.

Torres is coming back from injury, he´s not fully fit, its a very tall order.

Does anyone know how Voronin is doing in Germany, is he scoring, can we call him back to cover Torres?

[Owzat]

Does anyone know how Voronin is doing in Germany, is he scoring, can we call him back to cover Torres?

Was doing ok in Germany, nothing prolific

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andriy_Voronin

→ Hertha Berlin (loan) 13 apps, 3 goals

Domestic league only, last updated 22/12/08. He never has been prolific, only 1 in 3 most of the time which is about what Crouch managed for us (noone need start on how Crouch didn't start every game etc cause neither did Voronin for us) At the moment a goal every third game on the bench would be prolific compared to the rest of the bench!

[stmichael]

i'd expect us to win all of those games, with the possible exception of united away. there's certainly nothing there to worry about although we always play absolutely sh#te away against boro.

[Effes]

I voted 23-25 points - just think it's more realistic.

[mkingdom]

I said 26-28.  I can't see us winning at Utd to be honest, and I'd take a point now.

With that in mind we have to win the other games, with Villa looking (on paper) the only other tricky game.

But having dropped points against teams like Stoke and Fulham, anything could happen.

Looking at UTD's next 10, with no Arsenal or Chelsea, they are likely to return in the high 20's, with us and Villa being the best chance of them dropping points.


West Ham
Fulham
Blackburn
Spurs
Newcastle
Liverpool
Fulham (again?)
Villa
Sunderland
Wigan (usual Steve Bruce gift of 3 points)


With Inter Milan ties in the middle.

[Owzat]

I voted 23-25 points - just think it's more realistic.

Rafa Record (points per game)

04/05 1.53
05/06 2.16
06/07 1.79
07/08 2.00
08/09 2.13

2008/09 split

Games 01-06 : 2.33 points/game
Games 07-12 : 2.50 points/game
Games 13-18 : 1.67 points/game
Games 19-24 : 2.00 points/game

Best sustained spell of 10 games in terms of points was our start - 26 points from 10 games (2.60 points/game) Our last 10 games have brought just 18 points (1.80 points/game) I reckon a fair estimate would be somewhere in the middle given there are some games we could easily drop points in. I reckon we need to pick up 23-25 minimum to stay in the race, even that may not be enough if the mancs don't drop any. We have to aim at winning eight games I reckon, nine or all 10 and I think there will be a serious race on - 10 for sure since the mancs would lose to us and therefore could only pick up 27 points themselves at very most

[Owzat]

Haven't updated this, but now could be as 'good' a time as any

Next 10 league games (corresponding 07/08 results in brackets)

Portsmouth (a) D0-0 : 08/09 W3-2
Man City (h) W1-0 : 08/09 D1-1
Middlesboro (a) D1-1 : 08/09 L0-2
Sunderland (h) W3-0
MAN UTD (a) L0-3
Aston Villa (h) D2-2
Fulham (a) W2-0
Blackburn (h) W3-1
Hull (a) n/a
Newcastle (h) W3-0

07/08 P9 W5 D3 L1 PTS 18 (out of 27)

08/09 P3 W1 D1 L1 PTS 4 (out of 9)

So five points dropped already, title challenge all but gone (barring miracles) Even those 16 (35.56%) predicting 23-25 points should be worried as defeat at old trafford would mean we couldn't get more than 22 points. Already 20 optimists have been proven wrong in their prediction (44.44% or 4/9 of voters), one more defeat and 36 out of 45 will be wrong which is 4/5 or 80%.

It is still our best ever 'start' or 'season so far', but just one point better than 05/06 after 27 games. Rafa's bold statement about being "eight points better off than last season" is now shaking as we are only five points better off and we only managed 76 points last season anyway.

We're well on course to have as disappointing run as we did last season, probably worse given we've already lost one game and have a trip to old trafford. I haven't heard it myself, but I did hear through the grapevine that Rafa is talking up a win at old trafford. That might sum up our season, winning at old trafford, the Bernie Inn and Stamford Bridge, but losing to Boro, drawing with Hull, Stoke, Wigan, Fulham, West Ham etc.

[supersub]

I'm sure maximum points will do us well

[Owzat]

I'm sure maximum points will do us well

Wouldn't it always?

Our record number of draws in the Premiership is 13, set last season. Could be on course to beat it.

Supposedly we're making "progress" under Rafa, in the Premiership we've drawn 167 games out of 647 which is 25.81% - under Rafa we've drawn 45 games out of 179 which is 25.14%. Some improvement!

[Owzat]

Next 10 league games (corresponding 07/08 results in brackets)

Portsmouth (a) D0-0 : 08/09 W3-2
Man City (h) W1-0 : 08/09 D1-1
Middlesboro (a) D1-1 : 08/09 L0-2
Sunderland (h) W3-0 : 08/09 W2-0
MAN UTD (a) L0-3
Aston Villa (h) D2-2
Fulham (a) W2-0
Blackburn (h) W3-1
Hull (a) n/a
Newcastle (h) W3-0

After 4 games :-

07/08  P4 W2 D2 L0 F5 A1 PTS 8 (out of 12)
08/09 P4 W2 D1 L1 F6 A5 PTS 7 (out of 12)

Most points we've picked up in the last 10 games of a Premiership season is 27 (01/02 & 05/06) That would put us on 85 points. We did win our last nine games of 05/06, lost away to Arsenal in the 29th game ie before that run.

We have played Man Utd in the 29th game of a season twice before, neither game away

31/03/01 Liverpool 2-0 Man Utd
03/03/07 Liverpool 0-1 Man Utd

[Owzat]

Next 10 league games (corresponding 07/08 results in brackets)

Portsmouth (a) D0-0 : 08/09 W3-2
Man City (h) W1-0 : 08/09 D1-1
Middlesboro (a) D1-1 : 08/09 L0-2
Sunderland (h) W3-0 : 08/09 W2-0
MAN UTD (a) L0-3 : 08/09 W4-1
Aston Villa (h) D2-2
Fulham (a) W2-0
Blackburn (h) W3-1
Hull (a) n/a
Newcastle (h) W3-0

After 5 games :-

07/08  P5 W2 D2 L1 F5 A4 PTS 8 (out of 15)
08/09 P5 W3 D1 L1 F10 A6 PTS 10 (out of 15)

Mirrors the corresponding fixtures comparison overall, two points better off in the last five games and in all corresponding fixtures from last season. But we need a big improvement on 76 points from last season if we want to somehow steal the title from the mancs, we can up our game and beat them but how many other sides can/do?

[redbeergoggles]

It simply has to be 30, ok maybe its in the realms of fantasy ,but every player seems to be hitting form right now ,so im going to side with my heart not my head on this one  Y.N.W.A