by woof woof ! » Wed Oct 27, 2010 8:03 am
Liverpool to stay clear of big-money signings in January transfer window
Roy Hodgson will not target any marquee signings in the January transfer window as Liverpool's new owner, New England Sports Ventures, looks to put a stop to the profligate spending which it believes has hampered the club's progress in recent years.
NESV is believed to have been concerned by the millions of pounds haemorrhaged on transfer fees and wages by the club in recent years as it examined Liverpool's finances as part of the due diligence process carried out before the £300 million purchase of the Anfield side was completed.
Under Rafael Benítez, Liverpool spent more than £230 million in six years on fees alone – though much of that was recouped in sales – while the purchases of the likes of Raul Meireles, Christian Poulsen, Brad Jones and Paul Konchesky totalled £25 million in Hodgson's first summer at the club.
Though NESV's takeover freed up £36 million a year of revenue that had previously been used to service Liverpool's £282 million debts to be reinvested into the club, and though its offer did make provision for an immediate injection of funds into the playing staff, the American consortium has made it clear it expects value for money, both from fees and salaries.
"We have to be smart," John W Henry, NESV's principal backer, who will assume a place on Liverpool's board, said after the deal was completed.
"We have to be more efficient. When we spend a dollar it has to be wisely. We cannot afford player contracts that do not make long-term sense. We have to be smart, bold, aggressive. It's a great challenge."
Henry will take an active role in football matters at Anfield, assessing both Hodgson's suggested transfer targets and setting budgets for contract renegotiations of players already at the club.
The 61 year-old has already expressed his concern at the wages earned by older players on long-term, high-value contracts.
NESV's approach – applied with great success at the Boston Red Sox – is likely to rule Liverpool out of the glamour signings which many fans hoped would follow the eviction of previous owners Tom Hicks and George Gillett.
Instead, the club's recent scouting activity suggests they intend to follow the Arsenal model – for which NESV has been keen to stress its admiration – or, perhaps more pertinently, institute on an informal basis the transfer policy employed at Manchester United, where premium fees are only paid for younger players with resale potential.
"At the Boston Red Sox, we invested a lot in management and the scouting system," said NESV chairman Tom Werner.
"We believe the foundation of any good sports club has to be the experience, valuation and understanding of scouting, so we will invest in that as well."
Those players assessed by Hodgson and his scouting team in recent weeks include Steven Defour, the Standard Liège captain and a long-term target for the Liverpool manager.
At 22, and around £12 million, Defour represents minimum risk for maximum reward.
Likewise Ibrahim Afellay, the PSV Eindhoven winger Liverpool whom have assessed on several occasions.
Already a Dutch international at 24 and heralded for several years as one of the brightest prospects in Europe, Afellay would fall within Liverpool's budget, while his wage demands would remain comparatively modest.
More expensive would be Eden Hazard, Defour's Belgian international team-mate, currently with Lille.
The 19 year-old has attracted interest from Barcelona, Real Madrid, Arsenal, Chelsea and United, and could cost as much as £18 million.
However, Liverpool believe they can tempt the player – who is likely to be advised by his agent to seek a move to a club where he will play regular first-team football – and Kenny Dalglish was watching when the French side played Levski Sofia in the Europa League last Thursday.
Hodgson will not be allowed to add any players, though, without first trimming the squad. Liverpool boast the fourth-highest wage bill in the Premier League – standing at £107 million in 2009, according to football finance analysts Deloitte – but find themselves marooned in 18th place in the table, having finished seventh in Benítez's last campaign.
NESV does not blame Hodgson for that poor performance so far this season, but rather interprets it as evidence that many of the squad do not warrant either their reputations or their earnings.
Henry's experience as a futures trader, as well as his noted obsession with both sporting and financial statistics, put him in a perfect position to analyse such information.
He is acutely aware that figures suggest that, with almost unerring accuracy, a club's league position is defined by their wage bill. That Liverpool's key statistics are so discordant suggests the money is not being spent wisely.
He is also a devotee of Sabermetrics, the statistical analysis of the value of baseball players, pioneered by Bill James and which led Henry to appoint Theo Epstein as a general manager of the Boston Red Sox in 2002 at the age of 28.
Epstein applied James's principles – which are designed to help poorer teams identify value-for-money acquisitions – to lead the franchise to two World Series with a squad largely composed of bargain purchases.
Initial impressions of his time at Liverpool suggest he retains his faith in the method.
Six deals that would not have happened under NESV regime
Fernando Morientes
The Spanish international, signed for £6.3 million as a 28 year-old in January 2005, failed miserably at Anfield, scoring just 12 goals in 61 appearances. NESV’s belief in signing young players would have precluded the deal.
Robbie Keane
Signed as a 28 year-old for £20.3 million in 2008, the Irish international would also have been judged by NESV to be too old to warrant such a premium fee.
Alberto Aquilani
Though the Italian international’s age (26) and pedigree would have still made him a legitimate target, concerns over his injury record would have ruled out a £17 million move for the Roma player, now on loan at Juventus.
Jamie Carragher
John W Henry may have been concerned by the sight of a 32 year-old being handed a lucrative two-year contract just before NESV completed its takeover.
Maxi Rodríguez
The Argentine international, age 29, came on a free transfer from Atlético Madrid boasting a fine pedigree, but his wages, believed to be around £70,000 a week until June 2013, may have discouraged NESV from such a long contract.
Paul Konchesky
A four-year contract for a 29 year-old – as well as a £5 million fee – does not match the profile of deal NESV believes can help Liverpool develop in the long-term.
source Rory Smith the Telegraph
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