Reality check for next season

Liverpool Football Club - General Discussion

Postby DrPepe » Thu May 14, 2009 9:06 am

We are improving.

By that I mean the quality of the squad, and also (i hope) mental toughness (the realisation that 3 points is 3 points at whatever stage of the season).

This means we're almost all hugely optimistic about next season, and a lot of people who were very doubtful about Rafa have started to show confidence in his long term project.

But what happens if we finsh 2nd/3rd again ... in 2009/10 and 2010/11? do we blame/ship out the manager?

Looking at our owners & the situation with the new ground etc it's going to be really hard to compete financially from such an inferior starting point.

Premier League - Most expensive players
1. Robinho 32.5m Man City
2. Berbatov 30.75m Man United
3. Tevez 31m (not confirmed) Man United
4. Shevchenko 30m Chelsea
5. Ferdinand 29.1m Man United
6. Veron 28m Man United
7. Rooney 25m Man United
8. Essien 24.4m Chelsea
9. Drogba 24m Chelsea
10. Wright-Phillips 21m Chelsea
11. Torres 20m Liverpool
12. Carvalho 19.8m Chelsea
13. Van Nistelrooy 19m Man United
14. Keane 19m Liverpool
15. Mascherano 18m Liverpool
16. Hargreaves 18m Man United
17. Ferdinand 18m Leeds
18. Carrick 17m Man United
19. Anderson 18m Man Utd
20. Nani 18m Man Utd

Premier League - Squad gross
1. Chelsea 207m
2. Man Utd 206m
3. Spurs 187m
4. Man City 140m
5. Liverpool 126m

Premier League - Wage bills (06/7)
out of date but I couldn't find more recent numbers
05/6 wages in brackets
Chelsea - £132.8m (£114m)
Manchester Utd - £92.3m (£85.4m)
Arsenal - £89.7m (£82.9m)
Liverpool - £77.6m (£68.9m)
Newcastle Utd - £62.4m (£52.2m)
(source:Deloitte)

If these numbers were assets, cashflow etc for competing businesses in the real world, it would be extremely difficult f or us to compete (unless we go for the "niche market" by concentrating on the CL  :bowdown ).

Given the obvious disparity in resources, how does everyone feel the next 2 or 3 years will realistically pan out ?
"If I put a player in another position, suddenly 20 experts are going on about it. Experts of what, though? I don't know." - Rafa
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Postby bigmick » Thu May 14, 2009 9:52 am

I don't really buy into the premise that we are massively outgunned, I never have. It really depends upon whose figures you chose to belive, but whichever way you look at it we have spent hugely in the transfer market and far more than most of the clubs we have slipped up against this season. Equally, we have one of the best players in the World in our team effectively for free as far as transfer spend is concerned, so the figures are kind of insignificant I think. If Man Utd sell Ronaldo for a huge fee their "gross" figure will change hugely, so no I don't pay too much heed to such doom and gloom scenarios.

We've proven this season that if we by and large select our strongest team, and by and large play players in their best positions, we can pretty much compete with anybody. That's not been majorly surprising, because we've by and large used this method in the Champions League before and we've pretty much been able to compete with anybody there in the past. We've had a good enough team to challenge for the title in at least the last two seasons, and the realisation of what is required both in terms of selection and ambition has enabled us to do so this time around, despite being without our best striker for much of the season. Goodness only knows what we could have achieved last season while Torres was banging in thirty goals had we have known then what we know now, but that's all in the past I suppose, and besides Arsenal and Chelsea were both stronger then so it was marginally harder.

Next season I think we'll go well again, but unless we strengthen the team I don't think we'll win the title if I'm totally honest. I know that will have people going into a bit of a rage, and if it makes anyone feel better I'll lie and say I think we are certainties.

If though I stick with my gut feeling for a second, i might as well explain why. As I've said many times, my suspicion is that both Arsenal and Chelsea will be significantly stronger, even the Mancs may well strengthen, and as such I think the chances of us taking 14 points out of 18 off of the big four are somewhere close to nil. We really have had a golden set of results (richly deserved BTW) in the big four match ups this season, but it was probably a once in a lifetime occurance. Now despite beating them both Home and Away, we are in all likelyhood going to finish six points or so behind them. Had we not won at Old Trafford and they had built on their 1-0 lead, we'd be 12 points behind them. I'm not being overly doom and gloomy here, I'm merely suggesting that the gap is actually a bit bigger than it looks in my view.

We've got the hang of rotating less, and we've got the hang of going for the wins. Unfortunatley for us though, everyone else has now got the hang of us being serious contenders. We can win it next season, and I hope we do. My guess is though that 9 points out of 18 in big four matches is probably more realistic, and as such we are going to have to find five points there, plus seven or eight elsewhere. Can we improve by 13-14 points in the non big four games? I don't think we can no. I think we have now built our base camp, we are now going to need to get up by the summit somewhere, ready for an assault the following season.
Last edited by bigmick on Thu May 14, 2009 9:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby GYBS » Thu May 14, 2009 9:57 am

i think we can improve by the required points to win it - in the games against the lower opposition at home but to do this we need to add a bit mroe creativity - ie a tevez or a silva to help unlock those tight defences - to play that little clever killer ball for torres or gerrard to run onto . Add that extra dimension to us on top of our work ethic and solidness . We wont go all out every game cause we would leave ourselves open against the better teams and you cant go all out attack against teams that park the bus - all we did this year is try and power our way through those 11 men behind the ball and it doesnt work - you need an extra little edge of cleverness and hopefully we can get a player that can provide that .
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Postby DrPepe » Thu May 14, 2009 10:54 am

I don't really buy into the premise that we are massively outgunned, I never have. It really depends upon whose figures you chose to belive, but whichever way you look at it we have spent hugely in the transfer market


the numbers are there for all to see BM - the numbers we have spent are huge compared to clubs down the league , but are not huge/sufficient compared to the clubs we are trying to compete with.

and far more than most of the clubs we have slipped up against this season.

I agree that we have slipped up too often against these smaller teams. But when our first 11 play rubbish (like united v wigan last night)  in the 1st half, who do we have to fall back on? any 30m strikers or midfielders hiding on our bench? nope.

Equally, we have one of the best players in the World in our team effectively for free as far as transfer spend is concerned, so the figures are kind of insignificant I think. If Man Utd sell Ronaldo for a huge fee their "gross" figure will change hugely, so no I don't pay too much heed to such doom and gloom scenarios.


The figures are "kind of insignificant"! :D

we have  gerrard, united have had 2 or 3 of the country/worlds best players  "for free" (scholes, giggs, beckham, arguably neville@RB) for the last 12 years+

We've proven this season that if we by and large select our strongest team, and by and large play players in their best positions, we can pretty much compete with anybody.


but can that "strongest team" do it for the whole season? of course they can't. that's where having the huge squad of quality fits in

We've got the hang of rotating less, and we've got the hang of going for the wins.


ORN has got the hang of rotating more, and they seem to be doing pretty well  - comes back to that squad thing eh?
"If I put a player in another position, suddenly 20 experts are going on about it. Experts of what, though? I don't know." - Rafa
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Postby Bad Bob » Thu May 14, 2009 11:17 am

bigmick wrote:I don't really buy into the premise that we are massively outgunned, I never have. It really depends upon whose figures you chose to belive, but whichever way you look at it we have spent hugely in the transfer market and far more than most of the clubs we have slipped up against this season.
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My guess is though that 9 points out of 18 in big four matches is probably more realistic, and as such we are going to have to find five points there, plus seven or eight elsewhere. Can we improve by 13-14 points in the non big four games? I don't think we can no. I think we have now built our base camp, we are now going to need to get up by the summit somewhere, ready for an assault the following season.

Sorry about the selective quoting Mick, but something you said at the beginning of your post doesn't quite synch up with the point you're making at the end, IMO.  If money's not that big an issue, given that we can comfortably outspend most of the teams we end up dropping points against, what's the basis for your pessimism when it comes to the idea of us significantly improving our record against the league's lesser lights?  Surely we've learned a valuable lesson this season about going hammer and tongs for wins against these sides rather than draws?  Armed with that knowledge and given the fact that we'll have a superior squad to those opponents regardless of how far behind the Mancs and Chelsea we are in our spending (your initial point, I think) I should think we might expect a much better record against the clubs well below us.

The alternative, of course, is that money does matter somewhat.  As Dr. Pepe's suggesting, the Mancs have the ability to sit some genuine quality on their bench each match...game changing quality.  That requires dosh that we really haven't had.  Of course, we've also wasted a lot of money in the transfer market as well, so there's no question that it's not just about money but also about how we spend it.  But, I do think that money comes into it just a little when we start to recognize that, whether we like rotation or not, it's become a squad game these days given the length of the season and the number of competitions we're involved in.

Personally, I think there's a middle ground.  We could stand to have a bit more cash to ensure top quality signings each summer.  We could hope that Rafa does better with that money than he has in the past in many cases (Dossena, Keane, etc.).  And, yet, I think we can also expect a better record against the 'small clubs' next season because we got burnt on that front this time around and will have learned a valuable lesson in the process.  When taken in combination, I think that our prospects for winning a title in the next couple of seasons are higher than they've been in a long time, even if our competitors strengthen.
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Postby stmichael » Thu May 14, 2009 11:48 am

Last night put it into perspective again.

Utd have 5 world class attacking players whom Fergie is willing to play together and to :censored: with the opposition's thoughts and tactics.

Their respective game away to Stoke put it in a nutshell; the same game as our trip to that stinking griefpit - an hour's toil then he brought on Tevez, Rooney, Berbatov and got the goal.

Last night they had Rooney, Ronaldo, Tevez, Berbatov and Giggs playing in that last half hour.
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Postby DrPepe » Thu May 14, 2009 12:05 pm

stmichael wrote:an hour's toil then he brought on Tevez, Rooney, Berbatov and got the goal.

football is a simple game, really*  :D






*if you have 100m+ to spend on forwards, and a 100m+ to spend on midfielders
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Postby GYBS » Thu May 14, 2009 12:19 pm

Thats where Man Utd are ahead - the ability to bring on that 30 mil pound forward as opposed to bringing on the 1 million pound forward as well as very expeirenced very good players like giggs and scholes. nani and anderson etc may not be worth what they were paid for but they both have the ability to change things for man utd and have done in the past and are a step up from players like babel and reira and bar his last couple of months yossi.
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Postby Sabre » Thu May 14, 2009 12:23 pm

Yes, we are improving, and unless you really have lost total perspective of reality you have to admit our squad is significantly stronger than 5 years ago, and that's why we have challenged. You can even do a valiant attempt on tinging and "but"ing to try to deny this reality, commenting that the other teams were weaker, but I think the big picture is pretty clear.

Anyway that would be coming back to a discussion that has been discussed for too long and all angles have been perfectly explained. That is whatever our position is, if we're not convinced already no further discussions will.

The thread is interesting though, because it comes across as something like "And now what" or "What next next season".

I think that this year most people's demands mentioned a title challenge. And we have achieved that.

And for next season what? the target can't be to challenge again. The target must be to be first in the league. And with no tinging, and with no "but they'll be stronger next season", and with no Parry blaming this time.

The only unexcusable target must be the league the next season. Because we have improved, because we had time to build what we have now, and because in a massive club  like this titles are a must.
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Postby GYBS » Thu May 14, 2009 12:24 pm

Target for next season - Challenge and win the title , if no title then get some silverware .
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Postby bigmick » Thu May 14, 2009 12:27 pm

When I say "the figures" are kind of insignificant, I don't mean to pretend that it's not significant whether or not a team spends money. Bolton obviously cannot win the Premiership, it is a physical impossibility based on their budget. What I mean when the figures are insignificant is that we are in a select group of clubs who have a chance of winning it based on our transfer outlay and financial muscle. Now whether Ferguson is correct and we've spent more than Man U, or Rafa is correct and we haven't, or whether the transfer.net figures are correct or whether these figues are correct is IMHO insignificant. By pointing out that we have Gerrard for free, and that if Man Utd sell Ronaldo for a ridiculous fee it would skew the numbers I'm simply making the point that the numbers aren't the be all and end all. We spend enough to have an opportunity to win it, it is as simple as that in my view. Over the last couple of seasons, in my judgement we have spent probably heavier than anybody, although no doubt somebody will quote me figures which suggest otherwise. Whether or not we have spent the most by 10 million, or the Mancs have by 10 million matters not a jot though, we have shown we are capable of a challenge with our squad.

My pessimism on the chances of us improving significantly against the leagues lesser lights isn't because I'm saying spend is irrelevent either. I think it's quite likely we can beat Fulham at Home next season, as no doubt we will do our best to beat whoever replaces Hull in the Premiership once they're relegated, or we'll do our best not to lose away at another relegated club like Middlesboro. I think we can achieve that. My pessimism is based more around the feeling that things have kind of gone for us this year in many matches. We've pulled victory from the jaws of defeat on many occasions, we've had the bounce of the ball by and large through the season. Now I know for certain when I say that that someone will say we've hit the post 26 times, or we've missed lots of chances and been denied a host of clear cut penalties, which is all well and good but we'll have to differ. I think this season at many a crucial moment things have fallen for us, we've had a good run of things. With a different bounce of the ball for instance we could easily have lost a few games at the start of the season, and I just think if we sail as close to the wind next time we'll get burned.

Leaving that aside for a second, I note that the rotation debate is begining to go down a familiar path. Aplogies to those who are veterens of the rotation thread, but I feel I must just define my position on it once more. Nobody is saying you should/can/would like to play the same team in every single game. When I say "by and large" we have played our stromgest available team, I mean we have "by and large" done so. Of course there has been some rotation as the season has dragged on, and of course other teams employ it as well. Teams always have changed the team fromk time to time. They used to call it resting players, and before that dropping them. Nobody to the best of my knowledge has a problem with it. The problem comes when you adjust the players, the positions they play in and the formation to such an extent that the whole thing gets dizzy. On the forum the phenomenon became known as "Rafa style", whereby we were changing five and six players and positions per match. That is the issue, and it makes little or no difference if you have stronger players to make dizzy, footballers once dizzy run the risk of not winning as many football matches as they should.

Now once a team has a juggernaught rolling, like us or the Mancs unfortunately at the moment, you can make changes and it kind of seems to work. When though you are chopping and changing willy nilly and the team has no rhythm, no cohesion, no fluency nor any pattern, you simply stumble from one inept performance to the next. Anyway, the debates been done to death and the proof of the pudding really has been in the eating so there seems little point in going over it all now. I suppose there are still one or two people left who think we didn't used to overdo it at least a bit, but they seem to keep their thoughts to themselves these days.

I am always slightly baffled by the view that we simply didn't have good enough players to allow it to work. I don't necessarily disagree with that, but I'm bound to ask then if we didn't/don't have the players to allow uber-styling to work, why do it then? It seems akin to knocking high ball after high ball upto a five foot striker all season then afterwards saying "ah well, it would've worked if we had Crouch". Maybe it would, but if you haven't got Crouch don't pretend that you have surely? If you haven't got adequate cover to make 75 changes to the first team in the first 15 games of the season, then my answer would be not to do it then.

It's also worth noting that as many people are alluding to the number of changes Man Utd are making to their team, they are in a slightly different situation to us. They have played many more matches than us have already won the Carling Cup, went around the World to compete in that World thing, and have a Champions League final to take into account. We on the other hand had absolutely no need for any delayed gazelle thinking earlier in the season, as we've had only sporadic games for quite a bit now.

All in all it's an interesting debate which has and will always rumble on. The thing which this season IMHO has been proven beyond any shadow a doubt where we are concerned, is that consistency of selection breeds consistency of performance. Whoever would have thought it.
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Postby Toffeehater » Thu May 14, 2009 12:29 pm

GYBS wrote:Target for next season - Challenge and win the title , if no title then get some silverware .

realistically we should win the title next season if we get 1 or 2 more top quality players , we just need to cut out the draws which have hurt us so badly this season
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Postby GYBS » Thu May 14, 2009 12:37 pm

And what happens when someone brings up a stat that says we have made just as many changes to the team this season as both chelsea and Man utd . Many have them have been forced upon us by injury to players - Torres,Gerrard,Xabi,,Masher,Skrtel,Agger,Aurelio,Arbeloa,Reira have all had to be replaced throughout the season and at regular times . But it hasnt effected us becuase the standard of players being brought in while not as good as man utds are still better than what we have had previously .

And i dont understand the whole playing players out of position ? Has it really happened that often and on a regular basis ?
We had crouch moved out to the left during one game when it was obvious that it wasnt working when torres was out there against arsenal in the CL last season but that was for about 20 odd mins . We had masher and skrtel at right back - but other than that ?? what other ones is there that have been bad choices ?

And surely earlier on in the season we were still in the CL and FA cup so we still had to think ahead to a fixture congestion.
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Postby bigmick » Thu May 14, 2009 12:38 pm

Toffeehater wrote:
GYBS wrote:Target for next season - Challenge and win the title , if no title then get some silverware .

realistically we should win the title next season if we get 1 or 2 more top quality players , we just need to cut out the draws which have hurt us so badly this season

See this is kind of where I disagree with most people. We have made massive strides this season, to the point where we are now serious challengers. At the begining of next season, we are in a select group of two or possibly three clubs who can possibly win the title (I don't think Arsenal can even though I expect them to improve).

All that said, just because we are now up there doesn't mean we should expect to win it. I'll tell you this here and now and I say it a fully paid up member of the anti club, Rafa gotr us up there and provided he keeps us there and doesn't revert back to the old habits, there'll be no dissent from me if we finish third next season but right in touch. It's going to be extremely hard for us to win it, yes we should aim to win it of course, but it would IMHo be a huge mistake to be massively disappointed if we don't quite get there next term.

I'll finish with a positive. No team has ever won the Premiership four times on the bounce, nor the football league or at least not in modern times. If hitory repeats itself (which it often does in football) and the Mancs don't win it, then obviously we've got an absolutely huge chance then, even I'm optimistic about that.
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Postby stmichael » Thu May 14, 2009 12:39 pm

This season we beat Real Madrid away without a fit Torres, and if my memory serves me correctly, without Gerrard as well. We also beat Utd at home without Gerrard + Torres and Chelsea Away without Torres.

The biggest thing for me next season, is how we will react when Gerrard or Torres are unavailable for games. If we revert to Lucas and Mascherano in the middle with Kuyt alone up front then that will show that mistakes have not been learnt from, for example.

I'll be looking for clear signs that Rafa has moved on from the strange decisions (N'Gog ahead of Keane and Babel, Skrtel at right back, Lucas etc). If he approaches games the way he has since March, then we'll be laughing.
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