Liverpool FC Forum

[Bad Bob]

With all that said, I still find it strange Mick that you seem a little pessimistic about our chances of improving on this season next year.  Indeed, we've had a lot of the rub of the green but we've also had some bad luck along the way.  More importantly, we've had the experience of a challenge and we've learned some important lessons.  With that reality in mind and with the expectation that we'll improve our transfer record this summer over last, I can't see any reason why we shouldn't be optimistic going into next year.  You seem intent on seeing this season as our best chance blown rather than as a vital stepping stone to future glory and I can't quite fathom why that needs be so?

Bob I can't help the pessimism mate, I think it's more realsim. I think we'll be right up there again for sure provided Rafa continues on his curve, but I think it's a big ask.

Look, if we win our last couple of matches (which I think we will) and the Mancs win theirs (ditto) we are going to finsih six points back. It's been a brilliant effort and all that, but we'd be six points back once all the shouting had finished.

Now, that's six points back when we beat them Home and Away. If they'd beat us Home and Away, we'd be EIGHTEEN points back. Even if one of the game had been a draw, we'd be NINE points back. Now in the Home game it was 1-1 and we got the goal, in the away game it was 1-1 and we got the goal. We were behind in BOTH matches. BOTH matches could have gone either way, and I think if anyone denies that they are delusional. I think it's reasonable to assume we might not win against them Home and Away next season, which gives us a mountain to climb in terms of making up ground, particularly if Chelsea and Arsenal manage to improve (which as I've said many times I think they will). 

It might be worth considering how we've gone in the last couple of seasons in big four match ups in the Champions League, our supposed trump card. We've met big four teams three times, we've avoided the most formidable out of them and yet we've still lost two ties and won just the one. Tight matches yes, but we've gone out two out of three all the same. It would be a mistake IMHo to assume 14 points out of 18 is anything like normal against other big four teams.

If it seems like I am obsessive about the view that we have just had an absolutely golden, gilt edged chance to win the league, a gift in many ways, it's probably because I am absolutely convinced that this is the case. It will IMHO be MUCH harder to win the league next season assuming more normal big four match up results and improvement to Chelsea and Arsenal that it was this.

Like I say, if Rafa can keep us up there and keep building, I hope people have a bit of patience now. I would like to win A trophy though sometime soon though. Or get to a final or something, or a semi.

i agree with bigmick on this one - we 're unlikely to be half as good as we have been this season against the big4

in fact when you take away those results , we've actually been unusually bad this season against the lower teams (worse than last season...)

so on balance i think we'll improve against the dross (possibly we'll have better players and we'll defo have to have a better attitude to beating those teams), but probably not do as well against the top4

After all the margin for improvement is greater and easier against the lower teams - therefore i think we'll overall do better next season

Spot on and I too agree with Mick on this one.  We're definitely unlikely to repeat our amazing run of results against the other members of the Big Four anytime soon.  We're just all too evenly matched for that and its more likely that we'll share the spoils in those head to heads a lot more next time out.  But, I do think we can and will do much better against the other 16 teams in the league...so much so that we'll have as great a chance to win it next year as we had this.  Why will we do better?  Because the lads and Rafa will have learned a harsh lesson this year: that drawing too many games in the first 2/3 of the season can leave you agonizingly short of the holy grail no matter how well you play during the run in.  I have complete faith that the lads and the manager will have learned that lesson well and will not make the same mistakes next season...and that can make all the difference.

[taff]

Bigmick your points against the Mancs argument 6 then 18 sounded like a Tomkins argument be it a pessimistic one.

Rafa has quietly built a good squad who now seem to finally have the belief that they are good enough.  I have been very impressed by the way we have kept on fighting till the end and hopefully this spirit will remain in the important games next year, i.e. the ones we should get three points in.  The fact we beat the Mancs twice is great but I would swap them for maximum points in the draws we had.  The Mancs should win the league and will they care about losing to us twice. 

If we have a good summer of purchases and retain the team spirit that seems to be gushing out of Anfield at the moment then I can confidently predict a title challenge.  What Im really happy about is while we have been maintaing the pressure on the mancs we have been beating teams without a seconds thought as if its normal for us to wander down to West Ham and beat them three nil.  Its this attitude that I hope gets taken into next season

[burjennio]

Big Mick: Leaving that aside for a second, I note that the rotation debate is begining to go down a familiar path. Aplogies to those who are veterens of the rotation thread, but I feel I must just define my position on it once more. Nobody is saying you should/can/would like to play the same team in every single game. When I say "by and large" we have played our stromgest available team, I mean we have "by and large" done so. Of course there has been some rotation as the season has dragged on, and of course other teams employ it as well. Teams always have changed the team fromk time to time. They used to call it resting players, and before that dropping them. Nobody to the best of my knowledge has a problem with it. The problem comes when you adjust the players, the positions they play in and the formation to such an extent that the whole thing gets dizzy. On the forum the phenomenon became known as "Rafa style", whereby we were changing five and six players and positions per match. That is the issue, and it makes little or no difference if you have stronger players to make dizzy, footballers once dizzy run the risk of not winning as many football matches as they should.

Sorry to cut up posts but I've seen rotation blamed for not mounting a serious challenge in the past but after seeing a stat on the telly the other night that said Man Utd have rotated on average more than any other club per match over the last 5 years I think this one needs put to bed once and for all. In reality rotation works just dandy if you have a squad full of world class players who can slip right into a system if one player is injured or rested, if you don't have the quality to replace your best players thats when rotation becomes damaging to your side. Being able to swap a Rooney for a Tevez is clearly not going to cause you any problems but replacing a Torres with a N'Gog is just nuts. Thats where the Mancs have the advantage over every other side, and when Chelsea had their most successful period they had the same ethos, Jose Mourinho even stated himself that all he needed was a squad of 23 players - providing every player was quality in his position.

[Scottbot]

I just wanna be in the race again next season, and again the season after, and so on.....If we manage that often enough our chances of actually bringing the thing become far more likely.

[metalhead]

I just wanna be in the race again next season, and again the season after, and so on.....If we manage that often enough our chances of actually bringing the thing become far more likely.

Thats true,

However, your one of the patient ones, others won't have the same patience.

[kalos]

I think that a lot of people are missing the point re the big 3 - previosuly we never llooked like beating any of them |(or very rarely). This year we looked and were the better sides every game.The 4-4 with Arsenal was a freak - it should have been 16 pts out of 18.

Rafa, I believe, has learned how to play against them. So much so that he did it without his 2 best players on the pitch together on most occassions. Also those same 3 will be bricking it playing against us next season simply because they know we are mentally tougher than ever before under Rafa.

I am positive that we can spank them again next year - I expect a minimim of 12 out of 18 pts assuming that G & T will have fewer injury problems.

Also regaridng "expectation" - if it's the expectation born of belief due to the progress made then great - if it's expectation simply because we are Liverpool then it's delusional.

The thing that is worrying me is that at least half a dozen of our players have spoken of the run in and winning it this season and possibly next if we don't . I would prefer that they put a collective sock in it and go out and win the thing next year by CONTINUING to play the same way they have recently.

[Scottbot]

I just wanna be in the race again next season, and again the season after, and so on.....If we manage that often enough our chances of actually bringing the thing become far more likely.

Thats true,

However, your one of the patient ones, others won't have the same patience.

Yeah I know mate, it seems it's win or bust for quite a few next season. I just loving being in the race, it's been so bloody long! It might be hell listening/watching the mancs turn it around against the likes of Villa, Spurs and Wigan but at least we've had a reason to watch. for the last 15 years it's been just to hope they f...u...c.k it up but not this time around. I don't to two of the popular theories knocking around here at the moment A) "we're gonna win it next season, no problem" and B) The mancs are shi....t...ting it and Fergie is rattled" Are they fu...c...k, every year someone steps up and challenges them and more often than not they still pull through to win it. It's gonna be a battle next season, we just have to be in it once more. Make a bad start (as Arsenal did this season) and it's all over.

[metalhead]

Scott, we should build on for next season, I'm sure Rafa will not make the same mistakes he did after the 2005/2006 season when we went 82 points and then just dropped the season after that. Hopefully, we get the right players in the market and not lose any of our key players, for example Alonso. If Rafa identifies our weaknesses in the summer, get the right quality, then we are in business next season.

I'm also one of the patient ones, we will win it soon ofcourse, but its a matter of time and patience

[bigmick]

No one is saying its a formality or anything like that .But lets not down play our chances too much nor down play the results we have had against them this year - it should give the guys confidence and belief i.

This right here GYBS is for me an example of one of your most strange and occasionally irritating traits. All this "lets not play down our chances too much", "nor play down the results" etc etc. It's in the same bracket as "lets believe, lets get behind the lads, lets have faith in the manager". It's all utter b0ll0cks if you don't mind me saying so, (and even if you do it is).

You seem to have it in your head that what we all waffle on about on here makes an iota of differnce to someone somewhere. You're wrong. Nobody cares what I think about anything, nobody cares what any of the people on the forum think about anything. Whether or not I "play down" our chances makes no difference, and even it it did this role you take upon yourself as some sort of cheerleader trying to whip up positivity is just wierd.

The topic starter asked what our chances were realistically next season in peoples eyes. Now I have a view, which I've gone into in quite some detail and done my best to explain why I've come to the conclusions I have.Most people don't agree, which is cool, and have explained why they hold their view. It's all good though, because whether or not I think we will win the title next season makes no difference. Come this time next season, we'll have a pretty good idea who was calling it right. based on current form, if we don't win it, if we don't beat the Mancs Home and Away and if Chelsea and Arsenal improve out of all recognition, leaving us joint third and 12 points behind the winners, I'll be accused of being totally wrong opn all counts, but that's OK I'm used to it .

But "have faith", "believe FFS", "lets not play down our chances" etc etc are nonsense statements. I can't make myself believe a scenario which is in my view a 4/1 chance is actually an even money one. Equally, I can't have faith that something will happen next season when I think the balance of probability indicates otherwise. And lastly, it's not playing down our chances to give an opinion, it's just an opinion.

It's a little bit like when we had our draw bliiiiiiiiips this season and some of us said we have probably given the title away there. Or when we settled for a draw at the Emirates when their best player was carried off and their best striker sent off. Or when we took off both of our strikers when Wigan equalised with ten minutes to go. Some of us said those things would cost us, and we got the "have some faith FFS" "beleive believe beleive  " and all that nonsense then. You can believe believe believe all you like on here, it makes no differene to anyone or anything.

So in short, I reserve the right to answer the topic starter with my own opinion. If that involves me "playing down our chances" then that's just a bit of a shame.

[GYBS]

Ok going through the essay Mick the point i was making was you seem to be playing down how well we did to get those wins against chelsea and man utd and talking them down - f.uck all to do with faith or any of that other waffle you are going on about , so i have no idea why they hell your going down that road .

As i said no one is saying it will be a formality next season but some dont want to write off chances - no mention about about faith or believe or anything else you have a bee in the bonnet about

[bigmick]

As i said no one is saying it will be a formality next season but some dont want to write off chances - no mention about about faith or believe or anything else you have a bee in the bonnet about

So if you don't want to write off our chances, then don't. It's as simpe as that really.

I aren't writing our chances off either. As I've said a couple of times (not that anybody bothers reading it of course) we are in a group of two definates and three possibles IMHO of teams who can win the league next season. I think Chelsea have the possibility to improve enough to win it but I'd have them as the outsiders of three, I'd have the Mancs as favourites, and us in between. I don't FWIW think Arsenal can improve enough from where they are to win it, but I do think they'll significantly improve.

So there you go.That's my opinion, not that shocking really and I absolutely gaurantee that if you look up any prices with the bookies, they'll reflect similar thoughts.

My point in the "essay" was simply to point out that I don't need people on a forum telling me "lets not do this" or "lets not do that". Particularly when as I say I've been told such nonsense all season long, indeed for four long years and events have proven the people who were doing all the telling were actually talking b0ll0cks.

I make a statement that the games against the Mancs could have gone either way, and even that stuirs it up. Even though we went behind in both games, we were always certainties I suppose .

Anyways look, like I say this time next season hopefully you'll be able to tell me how wrong I was. I think we'll be right up there and we'll challenge, but I think it'll be much harder for us that it has been this season. Wev didn't win it this season, and I don't think we'll quite improve by enough to win it next.

[Effes]

As i said no one is saying it will be a formality next season but some dont want to write off chances - no mention about about faith or believe or anything else you have a bee in the bonnet about

So if you don't want to write off our chances, then don't. It's as simpe as that really.

I aren't writing our chances off either. As I've said a couple of times (not that anybody bothers reading it of course) we are in a group of two definates and three possibles IMHO of teams who can win the league next season. I think Chelsea have the possibility to improve enough to win it but I'd have them as the outsiders of three, I'd have the Mancs as favourites, and us in between. I don't FWIW think Arsenal can improve enough from where they are to win it, but I do think they'll significantly improve.

Tend to agree with that Mick, but there a few caveats for each team.

Man U - if they lose Ronaldo it will be VERY interesting to see how they cope.

Us - I think this Summer is as pivotal as the Summer of 2002.
      I'd like to see who we buy and see how they "settle" into life in the Premiership.

Chelsea - They need to get the manager situation sorted, signings will be important of course,
but the manager situation is critical. (Im stating the obvious there).

Arsenal - Signings again, a good holding midfielder, and maybe someone to solidify the defence.
I wouldn't be too concerned if I was a gooner and Adebayor left for decent money - he's not of the calibre to win a Title.

This Summer will be very interesting.

[SupitsJonF]

If we sell Alonso, I don't think I can ever think Rafa thought about the team first instead of some stupid personal reason.

If Alonso stays during the summer then it's been a good transfer window imo.

[bigmick]

If we sell Alonso in the Summer, I think it's serious for our chances of challenging. That's for two reasons, one becuase Xabi is obviously a top player when he's somewhere near the top of his game like he is now, and secondly I think if Rafa sells Xabi I think he is being forced into doing so because I simply cannot accept that he would do it out of choice.

Managers who are forced into situations where they have to sell their best players don't win league titles. It's one thing not being able to sign who you absolutely would like to in an ideal world, but it's an entirely different situation if you have to sell your best players. I usually pour scorn on the various excuses people dream up, but if we are forced into a situation where we HAVE to sell Alonso, we shouldn't be thinking seriously about winning the Premiership IMHO.

[GYBS]

As i said no one is saying it will be a formality next season but some dont want to write off chances - no mention about about faith or believe or anything else you have a bee in the bonnet about

So if you don't want to write off our chances, then don't. It's as simpe as that really.

I aren't writing our chances off either. As I've said a couple of times (not that anybody bothers reading it of course) we are in a group of two definates and three possibles IMHO of teams who can win the league next season. I think Chelsea have the possibility to improve enough to win it but I'd have them as the outsiders of three, I'd have the Mancs as favourites, and us in between. I don't FWIW think Arsenal can improve enough from where they are to win it, but I do think they'll significantly improve.

So there you go.That's my opinion, not that shocking really and I absolutely gaurantee that if you look up any prices with the bookies, they'll reflect similar thoughts.

My point in the "essay" was simply to point out that I don't need people on a forum telling me "lets not do this" or "lets not do that". Particularly when as I say I've been told such nonsense all season long, indeed for four long years and events have proven the people who were doing all the telling were actually talking b0ll0cks.

I make a statement that the games against the Mancs could have gone either way, and even that stuirs it up. Even though we went behind in both games, we were always certainties I suppose .

Anyways look, like I say this time next season hopefully you'll be able to tell me how wrong I was. I think we'll be right up there and we'll challenge, but I think it'll be much harder for us that it has been this season. Wev didn't win it this season, and I don't think we'll quite improve by enough to win it next.

No one is telling you to do this or that mick - people just giving an opinion . But sometimes you dont need to let go of little bones you grab hold off then mention for the next good couple of months of maybe even years - they always make some sort of appearance in your posts - wether is rafa style (whatever that is ) or "Faith" " Believe" etc etc and the world and here are not against you mate so you dont have to post in the siege mentality .