by Owzat » Sun Feb 01, 2009 10:24 am
Carra and Gerrard are STILL among our best 3, 4 or 5 players (depends on your viewpoint), he signed some of the solid members a long time ago like Reina and Alonso, so he's merely been adding one or two top players for every half dozen or more he signs - and not on the cheap most of the time either.
Already here - Gerrard, Hyypia, Carragher
Signed 04/05 - Alonso
Signed 05/06 - Reina, Agger
Signed 07/08 - Torres (£21m), Skrtel, Mascherano (£18.6m)
Signed 08/09 - Riera
VERY SLOW in adding quality, plenty will make cases that Keane and players like that should be in there, but still for FIVE years of adding players we don't have a strong squad and some positions in the team are far from 'filled' adequately. Yet we seem to be only a little bit closer to the title. I read Rafa said we're eight points better off this season than last - that is true, by virtue mainly of our silly losses at Reading at West Ham and our much improved start with less draws. However, if you compare like for like or corresponding fixtures, it's not looking so good. Including only the games we've played this season that we played last season :-
Corresponding Fixtures 08/09 vs 07/08
Sunderland (a) W vs W
Middlesbro (h) W vs W
A Villa (a) D vs W
Man Utd (h) W vs L
Everton (a) W vs W
Man City (a) W vs D
Wigan (h) W vs D
Chelsea (a) W vs D
Portsmouth (a) W vs D
So far in favour of 08/09 (25 points vs 20), but.........
Tottenham (a) L vs W
Bolton (a) W vs W
Fulham (h) D vs W
West Ham (h) D vs W
Blackburn (a) W vs D
Arsenal (a) D vs D
Bolton (h) W vs W
Newcastle (a) W vs W
Everton (h) D vs W
Wigan (a) D vs W
Draws start creeping in, while we may be eight points better off after 22 games, we still have games to come that we dropped points in bigtime last season - Man Utd (AL), Chelsea (HD), Arsenal (HD), West Ham (AL), Tottenham (HD).........
2008/09 : P19 W12 D6 L1 PTS 42
2007/08 : P19 W13 W5 L1 PTS 44
Last season we picked up 36 points from the last 15 games, just one defeat and three draws. We might manage to lost just one game in our last 15 this season, but I fear we not get just three draws nor will 36 points be enough to win the title. We made a better start this season, but we need to make a better finish to be in with a shout. We finished ELEVEN points adrift of the champions least season, it isn't just about bettering our own points tally but bettering everyone's. The mancs have won seven in a row, they have been as far as seven points behind us, but since then ten games have passed and we've picked up 16 points while they've picked up 28.
And they are a mere one point worse off this season at the same stage as last season. In the same spell of ten games they won eight last season so this is one of their strong periods. BOTH seasons they had more wins at this stage than we have now. (17 last season, 16 this) If we draw this afternoon then I think serious rethinks about 'loyalty' to the manager should be widespread, he's shown nothing to suggest he'd come good and fergie is one of only two managers I could find going back to the early eighties who'd taken more than four seasons to win the league.
1st League Titles
Jose Mourinho : Chelsea 2004/05 (1st season)
Arsene Wenger : Arsenal 1997/98 (2nd season, manager in Sep 1996)
Kenny Dalglish : Blackburn 1994/95 (4th season, manager in Oct 1991)
Alex Ferguson : Man Utd 1992/93 (7th season, manager in Nov 1986)
Howard Wilkinson : Leeds Utd 1991/92 (4th season, manager in Oct 1988)
George Graham : Arsenal 1988/89 (3rd season , manager in May 1986)
Kenny Dalglish : Liverpool 1985/86 (1st season double, player-manager)
Howard Kendall : Everton 1984/85 (4th season , player-manager in May 1981)
Ron Saunders : Aston Villa 1980/81 (7th season, manager in 1974)
Brian Clough : Nottingham Forest 1977/78 (3rd season, manager in Jan 1975)
Dave McKay : Derby County 1974/75 (2nd season, manager in Oct 1973)
So only two of the last ELEVEN managers to win the league have taken more than four seasons to do so, that's over 30+ years. None have taken that long since fergie became manager in the mid-80s, maybe four or five seasons is more than par for survival for a manager these days, but that's a fairly exclusive list bearing in mind managers have been at clubs four seasons or more and not done it. Note Evans didn't do it, Houllier didn't, Rafa hasn't yet - and it's not getting any easier. It's no coincidence that teams haven't won the league having been promoted the previous season since Clough did it with Forest. And no side has won the Premiership having finished 4th or lower the previous season. Why? Probably because cash has ruled the roost and it's rare indeed for a club to have a sugar daddy arrive and the previous manager survive long enough to take as long as fergie to do it. Otherwise a manager isn't likely to discover a 'magic formula' in his 5th, 6th, 7th etc season that he didn't in his first four.
I'd like to think Rafa can win the league, however he is making a right meal of management and maybe our league position is somewhat flattering and his (lack of) ability as a manager is what's causing our rapid decline. TEN games to go from seven points ahead of the mancs to five behind - a manager capable of winning the league would be the one reversing a gap.
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