by laza » Wed Jun 11, 2014 6:41 am
Oz News com article for all stats freaks
NATE Silver’s powers of prediction are unparalleled.
As the brain behind statistical analysis blog FiveThirtyEight, Silver has been forecasting results in political elections and sporting contests for years. During the last US presidential election, he correctly predicted the winner in all 50 states.
Now, Silver has turned his attention to the World Cup.
He has developed a predictive model called the Soccer Power Index (SPI), which harnesses reams of data to rate every team’s chances on a match-by-match basis.
“Technically speaking, SPI is two ratings systems rolled into one,” Silver says. “One based solely on a national team’s play, and one that reflects a composite of player ratings for what SPI projects to be a team’s top line-up.”
GROUP A: Brazil, Cameroon, Croatia, Mexico
The SPI gives Brazil a 99.4 per cent chance of progressing, and a 94.8 per cent chance of topping the group.
“Brazil would really have to blow it to not pass through the group stage with relative ease,” Silver says.
Mexico (39.7 per cent) is a slight favourite over Croatia (36.6 per cent) to join the host nation in the knockout phase.
GROUP B: Australia, Chile, Holland, Spain
According to Silver’s model, the Socceroos are practically guaranteed to crash out (92.2 per cent). Their best chance to grab a win (15 per cent) is against the Netherlands.
“This group — not the one the United States is in — is the “Group of Death”, with three teams ranked in the SPI top 10,” Silver writes.
“That’s unfortunate for Australia, which is the odd team out and has less chance than any other squad of advancing to the knockout stage.
“Instead the questions are, first, whether the Netherlands or Chile is superior, and second, whether both might be strong enough to deny Spain a place in the knockout stage.”
Holland made it to the final of the last World Cup, but the SPI predicts an early finish for the Dutch this time, with Chile progressing.
GROUP C: Colombia, Greece, Ivory Coast, Japan
No one is particularly excited about this group. According to Silver, Colombia should finish in first position (51.4 per cent), with the Ivory Coast in second.
“This is one of the weaker groups and sets up nicely for Colombia,” he says. “It’s a flawed group of opponents, although Colombia has sometimes lost or drawn against flawed opponents.”
GROUP D: Costa Rica, England, Italy, Uruguay
Uruguay, led by striker Luis Suarez, is the most likely to progress (64.1 per cent). The SPI also expects England to make it through, leaving 2006 world champion Italy languishing in third with a 53.4 per cent chance of getting knocked out.
“England, Italy and Uruguay are the sort of teams that might be able to entertain championship dreams in a World Cup with more parity, but not in one where they would have to overcome Brazil, Argentina, Germany or Spain at some point,” Silver says.
GROUP E: Ecuador, France, Honduras, Switzerland
According to FIFA’s official rankings, Switzerland is the world’s sixth best team, but Silver’s model gives Ecuador (55.4 per cent) a better chance of making it to the knockout phase.
In any case, the French should dominate this group ... assuming they actually show up.
“France has arguably as much player talent as any team but Brazil, Germany, Spain or Argentina, but its national team results have been inconsistent for a long while,” Silver writes.
GROUP F: Argentina, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Iran, Nigeria
Essentially, Lionel Messi has been given three warm up games to help him hit his stride. Argentina (92.5 per cent) will progress, and Bosnia-Herzegovina should join it in the top two (58.1 per cent).
“It would be a major upset if Argentina failed to advance to the knockout stage,” Silver says. “Still, Bosnia-Herzegovina, playing in its first World Cup under that flag, is the 13th best team in the world according to SPI.”
GROUP G: Germany, Ghana, Portugal, United States
Germany and Ronaldo — sorry, Portugal — are clearly the better teams, but this could turn into an interesting group anyway. The Germans have an 88.9 per cent chance of making it through, while the US (34.5 per cent) is Portugal’s biggest threat.
“Germany? Well, they’re really good. But as an offence-minded squad, the team might be ever so slightly prone towards letting in a soft goal and drawing (although probably not losing) a game that it shouldn’t,” Silver says.
GROUP H: Algeria, Belgium, Russia, South Korea
An uninspiring quartet fills the final group. Belgium (77.3 per cent) and Russia (64.8 per cent) should progress without much trouble.
“This is the weakest group in the field by some margin just about any way you slice and dice it,” Silver says. “It has both the worst best team (Belgium) and the worst worst team (Algeria).
SO, WHO WILL WIN THE WORLD CUP?
“Argentina, Germany and Spain, like Brazil, are wonderful soccer teams. You could perhaps debate which of the four would be favoured if the World Cup were played on a hastily constructed soccer pitch somewhere in the middle of the desert,” Silver writes.
“But this World Cup is being played in Brazil. No country has beaten Brazil on its home turf in almost 12 years.”
That loss, in a friendly against Paraguay back in 2002, barely counts. Brazil didn’t take the game seriously, and substituted most of its star players well before full-time. According to Silver, Brazil’s last home defeat in a match that actually mattered was in 1975.
With home ground advantage factored in, alongside all the other data, Silver’s Soccer Power Index gives Brazil a 45.2 per cent chance of winning the World Cup, ahead of Argentina (12.8 per cent), Germany (10.9 per cent), Spain (7.6 per cent) and Chile (4.2 per cent).
Forever Red in this life and the next
good performance from oscar who threw in a few tackles i thought wasnt in him.
