DrPepe wrote:Good analysis from owzat!
I agree Consistency is the key. But I disagree about the relative importance of big4 games, as these are "6 pointers" in my view and should be concentrated on (our big4 form this season supplemented by a very marginal improvement against the rest would see us top now, whereas a worse record vs the big4 would have required a unrealistic improvement against the dross)
Coulda, woulda, shoulda. The fact is the mancs know you can pick up NINETY-SIX points against the rest of the Premiership compared to just EIGHTEEN against the 'big four'. We definitely needed to pick up more points against the 'big four', but you can't guarantee it and it doesn't necessarily make any difference. Maybe not losing major ground in those six games is important, but we've gained plenty on the mancs and are still behind. Nice "six pointer" quote, we took six points off the mancs and could end up six points behind. I think Reading have an excellent set of results against Brum, Wolves and Sheff Utd, but they finished fourth - because they couldn't win against sides like Forest, Charlton and Southampton. "Six pointers" is an age old theory, the bottom line is you can win those all you like, but the law of averages dictates that you'll play more games that aren't "six pointers" than are.
It's a fine balancing act, but it is easier to beat "the dross" than Chelsea, Arsenal and Man Utd. Bottom line is we need to win 27+ games in a season and the mancs have already notched up 25 wins this season against sides outside the 'big four'. Of course I'm sure the mancs and fergie will bow to your say so on how best to go about winning the league

Champions vs Runners-Up
08/09 : Lost home, lost away*
07/08 : Won home, lost away
06/07 : Drew home, drew away
05/06 : Won home, lost away
04/05 : Drew home, drew away
03/04 : Won home, won away
02/03 : Won home, drew away
01/02 : Drew home, won away
*assuming the top two stay the same
Only once in the past eight seasons including this have the side top of the table done the double over the side second - and that was the season Arsenal went unbeaten and finished ELEVEN points clear of second. This season will be the first in six seasons that hasn't ended in the top two getting equal points from the head to heads - the mancs took four points to Chelsea's one, we took six to the mancs zero and vice versa.
The media love "six pointers", it makes a game sound vitally important when often it isn't. "Biggest game of the season" is another the media love, many are taken in by it. Of course "six pointers" can sometimes decide the title when two teams are close on points, but equally if we'd won four of our home draws we'd be top so ground can be gained anywhere that points have been dropped. The biggest difference is there are more points to be gained or dropped against the 16 other teams, we've dropped just four points against the 'big four' and a whopping 24 against the rest of the Premiership.