Liverpool FC Forum

[Fauxy]

This thread is basically about what people think the premiership will look like in the years to come.. what teams will stay up there? what teams will go down?

At the top is man united. They are winning things, they have a reasonably young squad with talent and have a lot of depth. But the grass isnt entirely green for them. They have a few key players that are soon to retire. Giggs, Scholes, Van der Sar.. and Ferdinand is loosing his legs. Ferguson is also getting old and once he retires its gonna hit them hard. Their Debt is the second highest in the premier league. Around £720 Million and they are planning on buying players like David Villa ? My prediction is that they will carry on winning things for a few more seasons but once Fergie retires they will struggle and money WILL soon become an inevatable issue.

Chelsea have an old squad and they face a transfer ban for two years. The average age of their squad at the moment is 27.3 and at the end of their transfer Ban they will have 13 players from their squad at the age of 30 or over. To name a few: Drogba, Terry, Lampard, Ballack, Malouda, Beletti, Anelka. They will also have 5 players between the age of 27-30. On top of this they have the biggest premier league debt, owing around £730 Million to Abramovic. I think Chelsea will win something big this season but the transfer ban is going to hurt them. They will loose their strength in depth and wont have enough money to replace the players they are going to loose all in one go. I cant see a way out for them, I think in 3 or 4 years time they will struggle to stay amongst the top teams.

Anyways they are the two teams I think are going to decline most in the coming years.

[Reg]

Success breeds success so the top 7 will remain unchanged with the exception of maybe one in, one out, depends how much new money comes in.
The medium sized wannabees will remain wannabees, small clubs will come and go and the Bitters will remain very Bitter.

[tubby]

Those who have money will be sucessfull. Those who don't will not. Where we will be is anyones guess but if things stay the same I can only imagine we will drift into mid table.

[Reg]

Cheer up Bav mate, its nearly the weekend....... 

[JoeTerp]

I would imagine if you asked the same question 8 or 9 years ago, there would have been a lot of people saying that Leeds would probably always be in the top 7.

Who knows what clubs are going to be bought and sold to who, or any rule changes that could happen in the future?

[Reg]

Leeds mis-spent and overspent hence went down for the same reasons we mentioned - they ran out of money.

[Owzat]

Perhaps the truth is we'll never know which owners have long term plans, which just want something new to play with and which clubs are neck deep in by their own standards. Many would tip Liverpool and Man Utd to go down the pan first due to size of debt, but there are clubs with smaller debts and less income to pay those debts.

I remember a few years ago one or two Hull fans saying "Premiership here we come", they were right. I wonder how many were thinking "then Championship here we come" and bankruptcy to follow. It could happen, it might not. A lot of people blame the owners, regardless of club, but it's the banks that let those who have no money borrow it and the existing owners don't have to sell. Risdale left Lids in sh 1te and fe cked off to Cardiff to wield his magic wand there. I bet Bates didn't lose out when the creditors made the deals, I bet he could have afforded more than the 8p in the pound or whatever it was Lids got away with.

I think those at most risk are the ones who try to spend big but don't have a long background of (recent)success. Lids' plan was awful, based on qualifying for the CL how many seasons in a row to pay off £60m? Worse still some idiot gave that money to O'LEARY who went out and spent £7m on Seth Johnson and really didn't do the club any favours. Newcastle too had lofty ambitions, they spent money like there's no tomorrow and look at them now. Players like Boumsong for £8m, Luque for £9.5m, £6m for Alan Smith and Barton for £5.8m. Leeds had some success in the Premiership, Newcastle haven't won squat in years.

Even a few of the better managed clubs struggled, if you choose not to spend to survive then you go down and lose the Premiership pot of gold, if you do spend then you have to make sure you don't go bust and stay up. Lids aren't the first ex-Premiership side to drop into League One, Southampton, Norwich and Charlton were in the top flight not so many seasons ago.

[Owzat]

Leeds mis-spent and overspent hence went down for the same reasons we mentioned - they ran out of money.

MAJOR DAVID O'LEARY BUYS (LEEDS)

£18m Ferdinand
£12m Keane (Robbie)
£11m Fowler
£7.2m Dacourt
£7m Johnson (Seth)
£6m Viduka
£5m Bridges
£4.5m Duberry
£4.5m Matteo
£4.4m Batty
£4m Huckerby
£4m Mills (Danny)
£3m Wilcox

A lot of money for what he got, especially bearing in mind this was over six years ago. I'd expect that to be maybe top six, not up to CL standard with any consistency though. Certainly had the elements of a decent side with Rio at the back, Fowler and Keane 'the two Robbies' up front, but midfield and the rest were fairly lacking. I quite liked Matteo, but was surprised we got anything like £4m for him. Viduka looks a relative bargain in among a lot of those strikers.

I guess it is somewhat ironic Lids mugged Man Utd for £7m when selling them Alan Smith, less surprising Newcastle walked into a mugging for the same kind of fee

[LFC2007]

It depends. A lot can change in a fairly short space of time, as Chelsea proved and now City are proving.

Like Reg, though, over the next three or four years I would expect the top 6 or 7 sides to stay more or less the same; Liverpool, Man U, Chelsea, Arsenal, City, Spurs and Villa/Everton. I think only the first five will be capable of challenging for the top honours, with the other two/three making a foray into the top four at some point. Outside of that, I can see Sunderland, Fulham and West Ham continuing as the staple mid-table sides for a while and for the rest it'll generally be a fight to stay in the division.

Against that you have a lot of uncertainty brought about by the ownership situations at each of the top clubs as well as the effects of a general economic downturn. Certainly for us a lot will depend on whether there is new investment, and if not, our ability to manage on a restricted budget. For the Manc's, a similar sort of situation may apply, though on a larger scale, while Chelsea's future will be depend directly on Abramovich; will he continue to bankroll the club, and if not, how will they replace an ageing squad on a limited budget without losing too much quality? On the face of it, with the infrastructure already in place and a manager capable of working very efficiently, Arsenal appear best positioned in the long-run.

A possible bearing here is UEFA's proposed regulations for financial fair play which although I've yet to see in detail, are bound to have an effect on the top clubs.

[loopyliverpool]

I hate to start any point on 'it depends' (no offence LFC2007) but it does and in particular, as LFC2007 suggests, the regulations being considered by UEFA. I know its been debated on here from time to time and it does seem to cause quite a polemic but, I for one would definitely like to see 'x' amount of home grown players playing in their respective nations' teams. I think in the great scheme of things it would be good for the game. With regard to Platini's ideas about teams 'breaking even' on revenue and transfer dealings I think that would play right into the hands of the biggest clubs and leave far too many with little chance of achieving anything but mid-table mediocrity. Imposing a cap of some description on transfers seems like a good idea but how this is brought about is going to be difficult. People often refer to the American draft system in 'Gridiron' when considering this but that would need to be rehashed to work in Europe. I think some change would make the Premier League a little more competitive and that would surely be good thing....

[RedSi35]

I think in 8 years time the premiership will be made up of the teams that dont make the top 4 ( liverpool, man utd, chelsea, arsenal ).
I'm sure we will be participating in some sort of european super league, afterall its where the money is. 20 or so super teams will contest it ( no idea how they would sort relegation out ) think Champions league but 38 games worth

[LFC2007]

With regard to Platini's ideas about teams 'breaking even' on revenue and transfer dealings I think that would play right into the hands of the biggest clubs and leave far too many with little chance of achieving anything but mid-table mediocrity.

It would only apply to clubs in UEFA competition.

[Reg]

Debt to Equity ratio limits are the only realistic answer.  I have spoken.

[bigmick]

Over the next five seasons, Arsenal will surely win the Premiership at least once, in all probability so will Man City. The Mancs will depend very much on who replaces Ferguson (I actually think he should have left after they won the Premiership last season, I think he's left the squad too weak this time around). Chelsea remain strong but do have some aging players. That said, they (Chelsea) do look like men against boys in the Premiership this season and I expect them to win it comfortably having seen what we've seen so far. The other clubs will have a fair bit of catching up to do next season and it maybe beyond them. A lot depends also upon who Mourinho manages when he comes back to the Premiership. If he takes over at Man Utd or Man City I'd expect him to improve either by quite a bit. For us, as things stand with the current owners and the current manager, I don't think we'll win it over the next five seasons if I'm honest. With new owners and/or a new manager, who's to say.

Anyway this is how I see it over the next five seasons.

Chelsea: Comfortable winners of the Premiership this season, probably winners next season as well. Beyond that, much will depend on the transfer ban. If UEFA can enforce it, they won't get a hat-trick. While Abrhamovic stays interested though, they will remain right up there.

Man Utd: I think they'll be third this season as of now, and a mile back. They aren't a good team, and I suspect this will be Fergusons final season. Much will depend on who replaces him.

Arsenal: I think they'll be second this season but a long way behind Chelsea. I do though think they will be a major force over the next five seasons, winning the league at least once.

Liverpool: We are in a dogfight for fourth this season IMHO with Man City. It'll be too close to call but obviously we desperately need to get in (much more than they do in truth). I don't think we will win the Prem in the period mentioned unless either the owners or the manager or both change. Rafa could win it with a huge influx of cash I suppose, but the owners aren't going to give him it so we are a bit stymied. Finishing top four is going to become very hard given the people in power both from an ownership and management point of view IMHO. If we miss it for a season or two, it could be gone for good.

Man City: Like I said, in a dogfight for fourth with us this season. If they can continue to spend like they have though, they will go past us and challenge for the title very soon. It's hard to imagine them not being permanently up there if they continue to get the financial backing. Hughes is doing well but I think another manager could possibly do even better.

Villa: Punching just about as high as they can IMHO.

Spurs: Potential competitors for the big four. Now they've got a good manager and are talking about a new stadium, they could possibly get there in five seasons.




I also think that very soon (probably within five seasons) Celtic and Rangers will be in the Premiership. They will both struggle to stay up.

[LFC2007]

Debt to Equity ratio limits are the only realistic answer.  I have spoken.

That would be a start but for as long as the EPL is as competitive as it is I just can't see it happening.

RE. BigMick's post, I think you need to include more caveats.