Liverpool FC Forum

by **Owzat** » Sun Nov 04, 2007 11:26 am

We're unbeaten in the league and six points off the top, how many points do you reckon we should be aiming at after 19 games?

Next Eight Premiership Games

10/11 Fulham (h) - WON 2-0
24/11 Newcastle (a) WON 3-0
01/12 Bolton (h) WON 4-0
08/12 Reading (a)
16/12 Man Utd (h)
22/12 Portsmouth (h)
26/12 Derby (a)
30/12 Man City (a)

Bear in mind if we are to mount a serious title challenge that we have the four games below to come in the run in, in virtually the same order and within the same period of weeks as last season that contributed to our bad start

09/02 Chelsea (a)
01/03 Bolton (a)
22/03 Man Utd (a)
05/04 Arsenal (a)

With Everton (h) sandwiched between the last two, and who says there's no fix in fixtures?

2006/7 Man Utd P19 W15 D2 L2 PTS 47 F41 A10
2006/7 Liverpool P19 W10 D4 L5 PTS 34 F28 A15
2007/8 Liverpool P11 W5 D6 L0 PTS 21 F17 A6

So to better last season we only need 14 points from 8 games, but what do we need to mount a serious title challenge? To match the manc's 1st half of last season, including a run of seven consecutive wins, we'd need 26 from the next 8 games which is impossible! They slowed to 42 points from the last 19 which we could manage by winning 7 out of 8.

2006/7 Man Utd WWWWLDWWWWWWWDWWWLW
2006/7 Liverpool DWLLWWLDLWWLDWDWWWW

I notice they exited the Carling Cup early this season (Coventry) and last (Southend) and of course haven't had the CL qualifiers. Arsenal have to catch up on away games which has traditionally been their achilles heel. The mancs have played six home, six away so even our game in hand will leave us a win in arrears despite us being unbeaten.

by **66-1112520797** » Sun Nov 04, 2007 11:34 am

19 points at least, for my. On current form it probably be like 9

by **bigmick** » Sun Nov 04, 2007 11:37 am

I don't know mate, if we were firing we could win nearly all of those games. Fulham, Bolton, Reading and Derby should be absolute givens even in our current form. You'd want to be winning two from three from Newcastle, Pompey and Citeh, while hopefully we can do to man Utd at home what we didn't manage to pull off against Arsenal and Chelsea. I think it's possible we could win six out of eight, drawing the other two. That would give us forty one points and would likely have us about as close we are now, if not a tad closer.

It's the fact that in that first half though we've had easily the kindest run of fixtures and haven't capitalised which will cost us in the end. We should have gone all out to get a lead and put the rest under pressure. No resting, rotating and twisting in first couple of months, just get the points on the board, get some belief and get some momentum. We didn't do that though, and we are where we are.

by **account deleted by request** » Sun Nov 04, 2007 4:17 pm

bigmick wrote:I don't know mate, if we were firing we could win nearly all of those games. Fulham, Bolton, Reading and Derby should be absolute givens even in our current form. You'd want to be winning two from three from Newcastle, Pompey and Citeh, while hopefully we can do to man Utd at home what we didn't manage to pull off against Arsenal and Chelsea. I think it's possible we could win six out of eight, drawing the other two. That would give us forty one points and would likely have us about as close we are now, if not a tad closer.

It's the fact that in that first half though we've had easily the kindest run of fixtures and haven't capitalised which will cost us in the end. We should have gone all out to get a lead and put the rest under pressure. No resting, rotating and twisting in first couple of months, just get the points on the board, get some belief and get some momentum. We didn't do that though, and we are where we are.

Nothing to add........ good post, got it just about right mate.

by **yckatbjywtbiastkamb** » Sun Nov 04, 2007 9:10 pm

i dont think there`s a points tally set in stone, i just think you have to be within 6 points or so of the leaders.
wether come christmas time we are still in touch remains to be seen,but hand on heart, as much as it pains me to say it, i doubt it.
draws against arsenal and blackburn away arent bad results by any means but i feel if we are actually going to win the title you need to find a way to win those tight games.

by **LFC2007** » Mon Nov 05, 2007 4:04 am

This season appears as if it's going to be closer, teams will hopefully take more points of each other than in the previous three seasons.

After 11 games we have 21 points, in the 02/03 season the Mancs had amounted 19 points after the same number of matches and went on to win the league. Although, towards the end they went on a fantastic run (14 wins and 3 draws in their final 17 games), and it's difficult to see us go on a similar one. Although, hopefully, by then we'll be functioning with full effect and our key players will be available. Still though, we'd probably need to see at least one of Arsenal, the Mancs or Chelsea have a poor spell of between 4 or 5 games. Since it's highly unlikely that they will lose two on the bounce, we'd probably need one or more of them to get stuck in a rut of draws (a bit like us atm) with two or three defeats sandwiched in between a series of 10 games or so.

I reckon we'll need to take an absolute minimum of 19 points from the next 8 games if we're going to be in with any kind of shot at the title. That would leave us on 40 points, and from then on, we'd probably need to go on a very, very good run. In order to convert the draws into wins, we need Torres fit, and probably Alonso and Agger too. But above all else we need Torres fit if we are going to have any chance of winning the title. I just don't see us going on this very good run if he isn't fit.

After 11/19 games the ultimate champions had the following points totals (for the past 8 seasons):

After 11 games 19 games

Season
2006/2007: 28 (Top) 47
2005/2006: 31 (Top) 51
2004/2005: 26 (Joint top) 46
2003/2004: 27 (Top) 45
2002/2003: 19 (8 pts off top) 35
2001/2002: 19 (4pts off top) 36
2000/2001: 24 (Top) 43
1999/2000: 24 (1pt/top Leeds were top :laugh:

) 43

Avg/pts: 24.5 43.25

Given that we are on 21 points, 40 points after 19 games would leave us within reach, then we would have to come up with a run of wins like we did in 2005/2006.

Basically, it's still very possible (9/1 with the bookies), but in order to win the league it's likely that we're going to have to go on one hell of a run towards the end winning some tough games, and our rivals are going to have stutter for a four or five game period.

by **112-1077774096** » Mon Nov 05, 2007 5:34 am

it doesn't matter any more what we do, we are relying on others now. already we have to hope arsenal lose 2 games just to get us level. we all saw on saturday that they do not just roll over and get beaten, we saw it agaisnt us also. in both games they were behind and in both games they came storming back.

it's not in our hands now, and i know its early to say that but its a fact

by **bigmick** » Mon Nov 05, 2007 6:11 am

The telling stat in LFC's analysis is unfortunately the number of points which the teams which have won it have had, after nineteen games. Even if we were to win all eight of our league games upto that point (including a win against the Mancs), we would still be shy of any of those totals in the last three seasons. Then we would be looking forward to a second half of the season which included trips to Old Trafford, The Emirates and Stamford Bridge.

No for me it's probably over in all honesty for us this term in terms of us winning the Premiership. People can go on about us being unbeaten and all that, but we are currently seventh and struggling for form while all our main rivals are playing out of their skins. It's worth considering that in our last three league games, we've had the extremely fortunate non-penalty for everton in the dying seconds, Arsenal absolutely rattling the frame of the goal twice and missing two open goals from the rebounds, while even Blackburn managed to hit our post and bar once apiece. It's not being overly dramatic by any means to say our predicament could be a whole lot worse than it currently is. Many will think I'm being overly pessimistic, probably just as many will think I'm disloyal for "losing belief" etc etc, but that's how I see it all the same.

At least it's not like last season where we were out of it after only a few weeks. This time, we are still kind of still in it, and given our easy run of matches coming up we may even be able to get a touch closer than we currently are but it'll be very tough. Ultimately though, if we ended the season being about as close as we are now it would be a fantastic effort in my view. We've been unlucky with injuries and all that it's fair to say (though Arsenal apart everybody has had their share, and even they have Van Persie sidelined at the moment) but I can't help thinking that when we started with all that verve we were a little bit too quick to change things. Our title challenge got derailed last season in the very first game at Bramhall Lane, this season in my view the faults can be traced back to Fratten Park. I don't suppose for a second that a lot of people will necessarily agree with me, but that's my view anyhow.

by **crazyhorse** » Mon Nov 05, 2007 6:37 am

I dont think we are ready to win the PL yet anyway, its not like we have been banging on the door for the last few seasons is it?

We are not totally out of it, but will have to rely on the other three dropping points among themselves and against other sides - and lets face it the prospect of all of them doing that is nil.

by **Owzat** » Thu Dec 06, 2007 8:49 am

Nine points out of nine so far, winning 2-0, 3-0 and then 4-0. Maybe we'll win 5-0 at Reading and then 6-0 against the mancs! :laugh:

Arsenal would be top if theymatch last seasons results in their next four games (DDDW), they would be :-

Projected Arsenal P19 W12 D7 L0 F37 A14 PTS 43

The mancs could not pick up 13 points from 4 games, they could be 1 point behind though if they won their next four games. We'd need to pick up four wins and a draw to be level which we didn't manage last season from the corresponding fixtures, clearly the mancs can't win all four AND us pick up 13 points (would have to go unbeaten).

And a return to the fix in fixture - notice we have a 5.15pm ko on Saturday before a crucial Champions League match on Tuesday. I see sultana and s*y have more say than sense has in fixtures. That gives us around 72 hours to prepare for an AWAY game in France, we should have asked that it be played last night even if they said no.

by **Roger Red Hat** » Thu Dec 06, 2007 10:32 am

reality is if we win our game in hand we'll be 2nd, 4 points behind the leaders - I'd have taken that before the season started :cool:

by **Leonmc0708** » Thu Dec 06, 2007 10:40 am

Lee J wrote:reality is if we win our game in hand we'll be 2nd, 4 points behind the leaders - I'd have taken that before the season started

Some people with egg on their faces in this thread thats for sure.

If we beat Reading, then United and Chelsea beat Arsenal (week Sunday) then we will be 2nd with a game in hand and one point off top spot.

Even if we only get a draw against United and Chelsea overturn Arsenal its still going to be only 3 points with a game in hand.

But anyway this is all in spite of Rafa's rotation policy, he is just a fat spanish waiter . . . . . . . . . . .

by **bigmick** » Thu Dec 06, 2007 10:58 am

Leonmc0708 wrote:
Lee J wrote:reality is if we win our game in hand we'll be 2nd, 4 points behind the leaders - I'd have taken that before the season started

Some people with egg on their faces in this thread thats for sure.

If we beat Reading, then United and Chelsea beat Arsenal (week Sunday) then we will be 2nd with a game in hand and one point off top spot.

Even if we only get a draw against United and Chelsea overturn Arsenal its still going to be only 3 points with a game in hand.

But anyway this is all in spite of Rafa's rotation policy, he is just a fat spanish waiter . . . . . . . . . . .

I don't know if the egg is actually on MY face yet, but hopefully it's coming my way. I actually wish the rose tinted spectacle brigade would save their gloating till the nd of the season to be perfectly honest. It's not that it bothers me overly, it's just that I still firmly believe that one bad result could dramatically change things and I think this premature gloating is tempting fate somewhat.

I did actually say that Fulham, Bolton, Reading and Derby should be "absolute givens", they should be and thankfully have been so far. I also said we ought to be winning "two from three against Pompey, Newcastle and Citeh". Thankfully we are one from one so far. I even said we could "nearly win all of those games" which of course we could, but would that be enough? Hopefully, we will continue our upsurge and do what we haven't managed to do so far, namely get positive results Away from home against the other big four teams. If we do that, then the whole omellette could
yet be landing on Micky's mush.

All in all though, I can't help feeling (and sorry for being repetitive here) that over rotation at the start of the season caused us to drop too many points during our "blip", and if we do really well from here on in, we will be able to say that those dodgy few weeks cost us the title.

The game against manchester United is absolutely make or break. Unfortunately, it's make or break for US. We had the chance to ensure that they went to Anfield needing to win the game to stay with us, under massive pressure. That we didn't take that chance when we had it will ultimately cost us I feel. Whatever the result, in the second half of the season they won't have to go to Anfield or the Emirates, whereas we will have to visit all the other big teams. Whether or not the pro's will admit the reasoning come the end of the season will be up to them, but I remain fairly sure that we will fall short. Not through lack of quality, but because we didn't give ourselves the best chance at the start of the season. We'll soon know one way or the other.

by **Leonmc0708** » Thu Dec 06, 2007 11:30 am

bigmick wrote:
Leonmc0708 wrote:
Lee J wrote:reality is if we win our game in hand we'll be 2nd, 4 points behind the leaders - I'd have taken that before the season started

Some people with egg on their faces in this thread thats for sure.

If we beat Reading, then United and Chelsea beat Arsenal (week Sunday) then we will be 2nd with a game in hand and one point off top spot.

Even if we only get a draw against United and Chelsea overturn Arsenal its still going to be only 3 points with a game in hand.

But anyway this is all in spite of Rafa's rotation policy, he is just a fat spanish waiter . . . . . . . . . . .

I don't know if the egg is actually on MY face yet, but hopefully it's coming my way. I actually wish the rose tinted spectacle brigade would save their gloating till the nd of the season to be perfectly honest. It's not that it bothers me overly, it's just that I still firmly believe that one bad result could dramatically change things and I think this premature gloating is tempting fate somewhat.

I did actually say that Fulham, Bolton, Reading and Derby should be "absolute givens", they should be and thankfully have been so far. I also said we ought to be winning "two from three against Pompey, Newcastle and Citeh". Thankfully we are one from one so far. I even said we could "nearly win all of those games" which of course we could, but would that be enough? Hopefully, we will continue our upsurge and do what we haven't managed to do so far, namely get positive results Away from home against the other big four teams. If we do that, then the whole omellette could
yet be landing on Micky's mush.

All in all though, I can't help feeling (and sorry for being repetitive here) that over rotation at the start of the season caused us to drop too many points during our "blip", and if we do really well from here on in, we will be able to say that those dodgy few weeks cost us the title.

The game against manchester United is absolutely make or break. Unfortunately, it's make or break for US. We had the chance to ensure that they went to Anfield needing to win the game to stay with us, under massive pressure. That we didn't take that chance when we had it will ultimately cost us I feel. Whatever the result, in the second half of the season they won't have to go to Anfield or the Emirates, whereas we will have to visit all the other big teams. Whether or not the pro's will admit the reasoning come the end of the season will be up to them, but I remain fairly sure that we will fall short. Not through lack of quality, but because we didn't give ourselves the best chance at the start of the season. We'll soon know one way or the other.

I never meant you, but if the cap fits, then wear it.

For the record I am not a rose tinted glasses wearer, I am a realist. I didnt think that a few draws would mean we where suddenly sh.ite and Rafa had to go, nor did I think a coupld of dodgy results in the Champions LEague and us bening against it would mean it was curtains there. I mean for fuc.ks sake even the glory hunters who joined in the wake of 2005 should at least remeber when it was "Game well and truly over" as Crespo chipped Dudek for Milans third.

I still think we will fall short this season, but I still think we have as good a chance as anyone else in the mixer right now.

by **bigmick** » Thu Dec 06, 2007 11:50 am

Leonmc0708 wrote:I never meant you, but if the cap fits, then wear it.

Didn't actually think you dd Leon, hence the capitals for ME. Obviously, Bamaga's tongue in cheek prediction of nine points from the games in question is looking a bit skinny now

The cap does fit in my particular case though, because the thrust of my posts around this time (not necessarily on this thread but around this period anyhow) were that we were out of the title race, finished, Kaputt. Now although like yourself I still think we'll come up short, events since have proved my "I know it's early" read of the situation to be total and utter b0ll0cks. Whether or not we win the title from here is by the by in terms of my pronouncements, we are most definately involved in the title race upto this point, we are not out of it, and in saying that, the manager and the team have proven me 100% wrong to say otherwise.

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