by LFC2007 » Fri May 07, 2010 2:47 am
This is just fascinating. The exit polls gave the Tories 307 seats (or a 5.5% swing) from Labour - leaving them 21 seats short of an overall majority (a Hung Parliament). To achieve that target they need a 7.5% swing. The average swing of all the results declared so far (c.125) comes very close to that target but you see it ranging from 3%-11% to the Tories depending on the region with key indicators going either way. Meanwhile, the lib dem's are on course to make little or no progress on 2005 despite their dramatic improvement in the polls during the campaign.
Looks likely the Tories will fall just short at this stage BUT there have been some very large swings to the Tories and still there are 100+ marginals to go.