Transfer fees - Do they matter

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Postby Bad Bob » Tue Aug 30, 2011 1:02 pm

aCe' wrote:
Bad Bob wrote:
ConnO'var wrote:It does matter..... no matter how you slice the numbers on the Carroll deal and saying that we got 2 players for the price of one does not mean squat. Granted, Suarez was a wonderful deal but we paid 35 million for the big fella.... we may have the money but that's 35 million expectations on the shoulders of a player I do rate..... That 35 million quid is probably playing on the mind of Andy and he's struggling to live up to the expectations at the mo. It's not the fee itself that bothers me.... but I think Comoli would have better served the club if he had made the fee "undisclosed". That way, the  big man could have just gotten on with the job instead of worrying about living up to the price tag.

Not everyone has the reputation already earned to make the price immaterial.

This is the only time I really worry about the impact of the transfer fee.  If it weighs on the shoulders of the player we bought and hinders his performance than it obviously matters.  Otherwise, I'm more in line with the Good Yank: we've got new owners who are prepared to splash a little cash and not worry too much about a slavish sell before you buy scenario.  As such, I worry much less about the costs of players or the opportunity costs of going for player A rather than player B.

As for the supporters, I wish people could step back from the price tags a bit when evaluating a player's performance.  I got some stick for sticking up for big Andy last week (hi Bam :D ) but, recall that I was reacting to a post that said his performance was "not good enough for a 35 million pound striker."  Which to me is a ridiculous statement.  What's the sliding scale?  Scoring a goal is only good enough if the striker cost 20 million pounds or less?  :D  It's this kind of thing that crops up too often in fan discussions IMO.

But Bob, surely certain price brackets (20mill+ or 30mill+) at least on paper should imply a certain caliber of player when it comes to transfer fees. How else would clubs come to a valuation of players to buy ? 
End of the day, if we pay 20mill for a player we expect the quality of the player (and hence his performances) to reflect that amount. The debate of potential quality is a different one, and one I assume many wouldnt want to get into it at this point. All I have to say about it is that imo we're not yet at a level that allows (or explains) us spending huge chunks of our budgets on players who are not yet the ready article.

On a different note, the fact that a club doesnt want to sell someone and as such came up with an overinflated valuation for them doesnt mean that the other side was 'forced' to pay that amount like some seem to be suggesting. It just means that the other club agrees with their valuation and as such decided to pay it.

aCe' I think there are all kinds of factors that figure into the price in lesser or greater measure.  One certainly is the calibre of player but timing, needs, length of time remaining in the contract, wishes of the player, etc. all come into play.  For instance, I don't for one minute think we would have come anywhere close to paying 35 million for Andy Carroll at another time in another context (nor do I think Newcastle would have asked for that amount).  I think the club decided that they needed to replace Torres immediately (probably true, with only Ngog and Kuyt to back up Suarez, who was brand new to the league) and that massively inflated his price.  Does that mean we should seriously consider Andy Carroll to be in the 35 million pound valuation bracket just because, under very unique circumstances, that's what we decided to pay for him?  I don't think so.  At least not in the simplistic sense of deciding that his performances should be those of a 35 million pound striker or we slag him off.  To me, there's a lot of factors beyond the relative calibre of a player that factors into any transfer fee and so we can't just say "we paid X and therefore expect Y" in a straightforward way.
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Postby Octsky » Tue Aug 30, 2011 1:30 pm

imagine transfer fee if use wrongly is like throwing yourself down a tall building, instant death.
ie) if we did not sign Johnson instead signing a back up for judas, if we did not sign aquaman as a replacement for Alonso, best, if we did not try to sign Barry, will Alonso still be here ?

signing wrong players at the wrong price can set us back a few yrs or down a few leagues (leeds),
as transfer fee represent (lost) opportunity cost.

High wages are like slow poison as it will kill you slowly, AW complains that he cant sign Mata or Nasri become of wage cap, but this will not be the case if he did not give fringe players high wages (Alumnia, Bendtner, Daiby are all on 50k/wk).
how much is Joe Cole worth per wk? 100k? it tied up our resources for him warming the bench.
what if a club has 3 or 4 Joe Cole in its books ?

bring the argument back to Carroll, what happens in the future nobody knows. He may become the future Ibra or the white version of Heskey. nobody can know for sure.
but looking at present fact we sign him for 35m on the last min (literally) when we sold judas away, and we signed him injured. so Carroll didnt really contribute (noting his 2 goals against ManC) to our late assault of the table.
did we really need to sign him then ? we probably can sign him now for less than 30m. i can guarantee that.
but with 35m now we can probably sign Forlan (10m) plus Chelskit's Studridge (15m) plus Kevin Doyle (10m). which is more valued for money ?
ok lets go crazy. we can sign Kaka or Benzama or even Aguero (baring in mind ManC overpaid)
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Postby RedAnt » Tue Aug 30, 2011 1:48 pm

Octsky wrote:imagine transfer fee if use wrongly is like throwing yourself down a tall building, instant death.
ie) if we did not sign Johnson instead signing a back up for judas, if we did not sign aquaman as a replacement for Alonso, best, if we did not try to sign Barry, will Alonso still be here ?

signing wrong players at the wrong price can set us back a few yrs or down a few leagues (leeds),
as transfer fee represent (lost) opportunity cost.

High wages are like slow poison as it will kill you slowly, AW complains that he cant sign Mata or Nasri become of wage cap, but this will not be the case if he did not give fringe players high wages (Alumnia, Bendtner, Daiby are all on 50k/wk).
how much is Joe Cole worth per wk? 100k? it tied up our resources for him warming the bench.
what if a club has 3 or 4 Joe Cole in its books ?

bring the argument back to Carroll, what happens in the future nobody knows. He may become the future Ibra or the white version of Heskey. nobody can know for sure.
but looking at present fact we sign him for 35m on the last min (literally) when we sold judas away, and we signed him injured. so Carroll didnt really contribute (noting his 2 goals against ManC) to our late assault of the table.
did we really need to sign him then ? we probably can sign him now for less than 30m. i can guarantee that.
but with 35m now we can probably sign Forlan (10m) plus Chelskit's Studridge (15m) plus Kevin Doyle (10m). which is more valued for money ?
ok lets go crazy. we can sign Kaka or Benzama or even Aguero (baring in mind ManC overpaid)

A good point. But the bit at the end about those alternatives to Andy Carroll neglects the fact that their combined wages would be far in excess of Andy Carrolls wages. It's also 3 players that should they flop need moving on..the benchwarmers that drain the resources. In Andy Carroll we have just one player on relatively low wages and it's much easier to move on one player than it is to move on three should he or they fail to make the grade. Carroll has good sell on value and there'd be no shortage of takers i'm sure. Forlan is getting old now. I'd not pay £10m for him.

Overall i'd say Carroll was the better value. He won't fail though. I can't wait for him to get up to speed with the Liverpool way. If we finish in the top four and Andy bags some goals and assists and things, the transfer fee will matter less and less due to the huge financial gains of the CL.
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Postby Kenny Kan » Tue Aug 30, 2011 2:02 pm

I got some stick for sticking up for big Andy last week (hi Bam  ) but, recall that I was reacting to a post that said his performance was  I got some stick for sticking up for big Andy last week (hi Bam  ) but, recall that I was reacting to a post that said his performance was "not good enough for a 35 million pound striker


Hang about bogey Frankfurt Bob. I don't recall saying  "not good enough for a 35 million pound striker" correct me if I'm wrong though (though its not often I am :D ). I said his performance 'wasn't good enough' and the fact of the matter it wasn't, irrelative of the price we paid for him. You said, that because he scored a goal, his all round performance was fine, so long as he stuck the ball in the back of the net once. Coming from the academic side of life Bob, you should surely know that there is more to a players performance than scoring a goal. I was 'deconstructing' :laugh: his overall game mate. tis all.
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Postby Bad Bob » Tue Aug 30, 2011 2:05 pm

Octsky wrote:but looking at present fact we sign him for 35m on the last min (literally) when we sold judas away, and we signed him injured. so Carroll didnt really contribute (noting his 2 goals against ManC) to our late assault of the table.
did we really need to sign him then ?


It's so easy to say in hindsight, isn't it?  Of course, had Suarez not settled so quickly or proven to be the quality player he is (who honestly expected him to be this good when he arrived last January?) we would have had David Ngog as our main striker.  Hardly the recipe for a march up the table.  The brilliance of Suarez has coloured our impressions of the Carroll transfer heavily, IMO.

we probably can sign him now for less than 30m. i can guarantee that.
but with 35m now we can probably sign Forlan (10m) plus Chelskit's Studridge (15m) plus Kevin Doyle (10m). which is more valued for money ?
ok lets go crazy. we can sign Kaka or Benzama or even Aguero (baring in mind ManC overpaid)


Every time I read "we could have signed player X for that" I have to laugh.  We have no idea what's possible on the transfer market and at what price.  Maybe Chelsea would sell us Sturridge for 15 million or maybe they'd slap a 25 million price tag on him.  Maybe Aguero had his heart set on City and only City, given their squad, place in the Champions League and the massive wages they could offer.  Supporters can fantasize all they like about what ifs but we really have a limited grasp on what's truly possible behind closed doors.
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Postby Kenny Kan » Tue Aug 30, 2011 2:07 pm

Bad Bob wrote:
aCe' wrote:
Bad Bob wrote:
ConnO'var wrote:It does matter..... no matter how you slice the numbers on the Carroll deal and saying that we got 2 players for the price of one does not mean squat. Granted, Suarez was a wonderful deal but we paid 35 million for the big fella.... we may have the money but that's 35 million expectations on the shoulders of a player I do rate..... That 35 million quid is probably playing on the mind of Andy and he's struggling to live up to the expectations at the mo. It's not the fee itself that bothers me.... but I think Comoli would have better served the club if he had made the fee "undisclosed". That way, the  big man could have just gotten on with the job instead of worrying about living up to the price tag.

Not everyone has the reputation already earned to make the price immaterial.

This is the only time I really worry about the impact of the transfer fee.  If it weighs on the shoulders of the player we bought and hinders his performance than it obviously matters.  Otherwise, I'm more in line with the Good Yank: we've got new owners who are prepared to splash a little cash and not worry too much about a slavish sell before you buy scenario.  As such, I worry much less about the costs of players or the opportunity costs of going for player A rather than player B.

As for the supporters, I wish people could step back from the price tags a bit when evaluating a player's performance.  I got some stick for sticking up for big Andy last week (hi Bam :D ) but, recall that I was reacting to a post that said his performance was "not good enough for a 35 million pound striker."  Which to me is a ridiculous statement.  What's the sliding scale?  Scoring a goal is only good enough if the striker cost 20 million pounds or less?  :D  It's this kind of thing that crops up too often in fan discussions IMO.

But Bob, surely certain price brackets (20mill+ or 30mill+) at least on paper should imply a certain caliber of player when it comes to transfer fees. How else would clubs come to a valuation of players to buy ? 
End of the day, if we pay 20mill for a player we expect the quality of the player (and hence his performances) to reflect that amount. The debate of potential quality is a different one, and one I assume many wouldnt want to get into it at this point. All I have to say about it is that imo we're not yet at a level that allows (or explains) us spending huge chunks of our budgets on players who are not yet the ready article.

On a different note, the fact that a club doesnt want to sell someone and as such came up with an overinflated valuation for them doesnt mean that the other side was 'forced' to pay that amount like some seem to be suggesting. It just means that the other club agrees with their valuation and as such decided to pay it.

aCe' I think there are all kinds of factors that figure into the price in lesser or greater measure.  One certainly is the calibre of player but timing, needs, length of time remaining in the contract, wishes of the player, etc. all come into play.  For instance, I don't for one minute think we would have come anywhere close to paying 35 million for Andy Carroll at another time in another context (nor do I think Newcastle would have asked for that amount).  I think the club decided that they needed to replace Torres immediately (probably true, with only Ngog and Kuyt to back up Suarez, who was brand new to the league) and that massively inflated his price.  Does that mean we should seriously consider Andy Carroll to be in the 35 million pound valuation bracket just because, under very unique circumstances, that's what we decided to pay for him?  I don't think so.  At least not in the simplistic sense of deciding that his performances should be those of a 35 million pound striker or we slag him off.  To me, there's a lot of factors beyond the relative calibre of a player that factors into any transfer fee and so we can't just say "we paid X and therefore expect Y" in a straightforward way.

So how much would YOU value him in this context now: Summer signing, with same years of contract left at Newcastle as he did when he joined us.

I'd go for 12 million myself.
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Postby Bad Bob » Tue Aug 30, 2011 2:10 pm

Kenny Kan wrote:
I got some stick for sticking up for big Andy last week (hi Bam  ) but, recall that I was reacting to a post that said his performance was  I got some stick for sticking up for big Andy last week (hi Bam  ) but, recall that I was reacting to a post that said his performance was "not good enough for a 35 million pound striker


Hang about bogey Frankfurt Bob. I don't recall saying  "not good enough for a 35 million pound striker" correct me if I'm wrong though (though its not often I am :D ). I said his performance 'wasn't good enough' and the fact of the matter it wasn't, irrelative of the price we paid for him. You said, that because he scored a goal, his all round performance was fine, so long as he stuck the ball in the back of the net once. Coming from the academic side of life Bob, you should surely know that there is more to a players performance than scoring a goal. I was 'deconstructing' :laugh: his overall game mate. tis all.

:D

I never said you said it, Bam (it was that damjan fella).  He said it, I disagreed, you came on later and stuck your oar in and away we went.  For the record, I was arguing that scoring a goal is a pretty important part of any striker's brief and that the fact that Carroll did so should at least get him out of the "not good enough" category for one farkin' match.  We won comfortably, advanced to the next round of the cup and he stuck a good goal away...now call me happy clappy but I don't see the need to criticize in that context.  It just feels petty, you know?  ???
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Postby Bad Bob » Tue Aug 30, 2011 2:12 pm

Kenny Kan wrote:So how much would YOU value him in this context now: Summer signing, with same years of contract left at Newcastle as he did when he joined us.

I'd go for 12 million myself.

Without factoring in the ridiculous "buy English" mark up, right? :D  In realistic terms, he'd probably cost around 20 million in today's market based on his nationality and potential alone.  Not that it matters...
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Postby stmichael » Tue Aug 30, 2011 2:15 pm

i'd value carroll at about 15m. i think we could realistically got him for £15m or so had we not had £50m burning our pockets on deadline day and being desperate to bring in another striker. newcastle knew they could bump the price up to whatever they wanted because we'd pay it. on the same day the likes of rossi, forlan etc were linked with ludicrous £30m+ moves to the likes of spurs aswell. the whole transfer market went completely bonkers.

i was hearing another interesting discussion the other day about how english players tend to get more stick than their foreign counterparts from fans. henderson played well at exeter and was involved in two goals yet was still getting criticised. carroll didn't have his best game but still scored 9the sign of any good striker). walcott at arsenal always gets slagged off despite the fact he's scored in his last two games.
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Postby RedAnt » Tue Aug 30, 2011 2:17 pm

Bad Bob wrote:
Kenny Kan wrote:So how much would YOU value him in this context now: Summer signing, with same years of contract left at Newcastle as he did when he joined us.

I'd go for 12 million myself.

Without factoring in the ridiculous "buy English" mark up, right? :D  In realistic terms, he'd probably cost around 20 million in today's market based on his nationality and potential alone.  Not that it matters...

When Shearer went to the Toon for £15m, wasn't that the English record for a transfer fee? Considering that was years ago, and Carroll is younger, also taking into account the fact that Carroll isn't as good as Shearer...i'd say certainly £20m too. Throw in the unique circumstances Bob's underlined...£35m seems about right really.
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Postby Kenny Kan » Tue Aug 30, 2011 2:22 pm

Bad Bob wrote:
Kenny Kan wrote:
I got some stick for sticking up for big Andy last week (hi Bam  ) but, recall that I was reacting to a post that said his performance was  I got some stick for sticking up for big Andy last week (hi Bam  ) but, recall that I was reacting to a post that said his performance was "not good enough for a 35 million pound striker


Hang about bogey Frankfurt Bob. I don't recall saying  "not good enough for a 35 million pound striker" correct me if I'm wrong though (though its not often I am :D ). I said his performance 'wasn't good enough' and the fact of the matter it wasn't, irrelative of the price we paid for him. You said, that because he scored a goal, his all round performance was fine, so long as he stuck the ball in the back of the net once. Coming from the academic side of life Bob, you should surely know that there is more to a players performance than scoring a goal. I was 'deconstructing' :laugh: his overall game mate. tis all.

:D

I never said you said it, Bam (it was that damjan fella).  He said it, I disagreed, you came on later and stuck your oar in and away we went.  For the record, I was arguing that scoring a goal is a pretty important part of any striker's brief and that the fact that Carroll did so should at least get him out of the "not good enough" category for one farkin' match.  We won comfortably, advanced to the next round of the cup and he stuck a good goal away...now call me happy clappy but I don't see the need to criticize in that context.  It just feels petty, you know?  ???

Not really Bob, I used the Frankfurt Marxist theorem to critise  the 'norm' and 'tradition' of what you thought was 'good enough'.
Petty it wasn't, critical it was.  :;):
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Postby Bad Bob » Tue Aug 30, 2011 2:29 pm

Kenny Kan wrote:Not really Bob, I used the Frankfurt Marxist theorem to critise  the 'norm' and 'tradition' of what you thought was 'good enough'.
Petty it wasn't, critical it was.  :;):

:laugh:

Excellent work, then.  How very Po-Mo of you.  :buttrock
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Postby maypaxvobiscum » Tue Aug 30, 2011 2:40 pm

i don't care. as long as we win.
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Postby zarababe » Tue Aug 30, 2011 6:34 pm

Why won't we spend 100mill again..?  the club's revenue's vs debt burden is such that this will be possible again, if need be .. and again and again.. this is not down to some 'sugar' daddy 'free for al'l. our revenues permit this, as do Manc Utd's who, despite being debtridden, are able to sustain such expenditure annually or at least £50 mill+ because of there commercial and on-field success.

We wil be spending large amonuts in the future again .. on a model the Fenways have employed elsewhere.

If Chelsea can sustain the flop that is 'Torres'.. than we can sustain any that come our way.. if only becasue we thought they would work. So lets not worry about the fees before we have given people a chance...
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Postby Kharhaz » Tue Aug 30, 2011 8:11 pm

The reason for the overpriced players is simple. Its because they are british. English players especially, when you look at what they can do, which is the basics expected of a footballer, the price of that player rockets. Is Carrol worth £35m? Is Phil Jones worth £17m? Is Henderson worth £20m? No of course not, but because they are british, the fee shoots up.
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