Liverpool FC Forum

[Leonmc0708]

Just for the hard of thinking, al ittle example of the reason why football is the number one sport in the World and how it can change over the space of a couple of weeks.

EXAMPLE

Team A starts our little example with 10 points

Team M starts our little example with 9 points

Team C starts our little example with 4 points

Team L starts our little example with 0 points but has one game to play over teams A, M and C.

Week 1
Team A draws (11 points)
Team L wins (3 points)
Team M draws (10 points)
Team C draws (5 points)

Team L makes up 2 points on ALL its rivals

Week 2
All the teams win - so its all the same (+3 points each)

Week 3
Team C draws (11 points)
Team A loses (14 points)
Team M wins (17 points)
Team L wins (9 points)

Team L is now 8 points off M and 5 points off A and 2 points off C with a game in hand on all three of the other teams.

Week 4
All the teams win - so its all the same (+3 points each)

The example is pretty clearly the big four and the games are over the Christmas period. The games are listed bewlo so you can make your own mind up.

My question is will we still "be definitely out of it" if we are 5 points off the Mancs, 2 points off Arsenal and 1 point ahead of Chelsea (assuming we win our game in hand) come Wednesday 3rd January ?

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Week 1
Saturday, 22 December 2007
Arsenal v Tottenham, 12:45
Aston Villa v Man City, 15:00
Bolton v Birmingham, 15:00
Fulham v Wigan, 15:00
Liverpool v Portsmouth, 15:00
Middlesbrough v West Ham, 15:00
Reading v Sunderland, 15:00

Sunday, 23 December 2007
Blackburn v Chelsea, 16:10
Man Utd v Everton, 12:00
Newcastle v Derby, 14:00

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Week 2
Wednesday, 26 December 2007
Birmingham v Middlesbrough, 15:00
Chelsea v Aston Villa, 13:00
Derby v Liverpool, 15:00
Everton v Bolton, 15:00
Portsmouth v Arsenal, 19:45
Sunderland v Man Utd, 15:00
Tottenham v Fulham, 13:00
West Ham v Reading, 13:00
Wigan v Newcastle, 15:00

Thursday, 27 December 2007
Man City v Blackburn, 19:45

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Week 3
Saturday, 29 December 2007
Birmingham v Fulham, 15:00
Chelsea v Newcastle, 15:00
Everton v Arsenal, 17:15
Portsmouth v Middlesbrough, 15:00
Sunderland v Bolton, 15:00
Tottenham v Reading, 15:00
West Ham v Man Utd, 15:00
Wigan v Aston Villa, 15:00

Sunday, 30 December 2007
Derby v Blackburn, 13:30
Man City v Liverpool, 16:00

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Week 4
Tuesday, 01 January 2008
Arsenal v West Ham, 15:00
Aston Villa v Tottenham, 17:20
Fulham v Chelsea, 12:45
Man Utd v Birmingham, 15:00
Middlesbrough v Everton, 15:00
Reading v Portsmouth, 15:00

Wednesday, 02 January 2008
Blackburn v Sunderland, 20:00
Bolton v Derby, 20:00
Liverpoolv Wigan, 20:00
Newcastle v Man City, 19:45

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For the record I am not saying that we will win our game in hand or that we will definitely see the resuplts above, HOWEVER the point is it does not look un realistic that these things could happen.

Factor in then that the other three all play each other (and us) before the end of the season, and we have another chance to make up four points on each of our rivals (again assuming they draw against each other and we win the games we play at that same time.

[murphy0151]

You have got far to much spare time.

[bigmick]

It's possible Leon, along with all the other possibilities

In one of the other threads (or it might be this one feck knows I'm off to bed in a minute) I reckoned that around 85 points or so would win it (it might actually be two or three more than that in truth). This is based on Arsenal and the Mancs being about half way there (40 points for Arsenal, 39 for man Utd) after playing one shy of half their games (not that scientific I'll grant you but stats never have been my thing TBH).

We're on 30 points after sixteen games so would need around 55 points or more from our last 22 matches. If we win them all we'd obviously amass 66 points plus the 30 we've already got and fairly obviously barring a miracle we'd be champions. Cl;early though we don't have to win them all. We could lose three (maybe the big three away games), win the rest and we'd go very close to actually winning it. Perhaps we could win one and draw two of the big away games, by my reckoning as long as we didn't lose more then a couple of the remaining nineteen, winning the other seventeen might be good enough. So yes it's possible, as anything is possible but it's not being defeatist to say it's unlikely surely?

Whatever anyway, whoever is going to be proven right or wrong isn't important in itself. I would like us to have as good a go at it as possible, and to do so we are going to need to stay in the mix until the run in. Even with our treacherous finishing stretch, if we are within touching distance by then who Knows? We'll see.

[112-1077774096]

and aliens might land blah blah blah, its all what ifs, lets just focus on the fact that we have dropped many points this season, lets deal in facts

[Simari]

The questionable bits in that *dream*:

1. Arsenal will beat Spurs in a slug-fest at Emirates. Spurs don't have a defense to speak off. They will leak goals, but score a couple in the process. For the record, this is one game I would NOT bet any money on to predict the final score!

2. Chelsea will most probably beat Newcastle at Stamford Bridge - although this doesn't materially impact our *dream*, just that the blues will be closer to A and M.

3. Man City are 9-0 at home, and haven't looked like being beaten there all season. (Liverpool's week 3 at Man C)

Other than that, we can, and always should hope

[kazza]

I do not think our season is lost by any stretch. We played better than Utd and I think we are better than last year. If we can sort out the consistancy (which again is better than last year) there is no team better than us so why not. Chelsea play the "big three" at Stanford Bridge so someone will drop points.

We should not have lost to Reading but we did so lets move on. These things happen in football (you know teams lose). We still have the best manager.

[Emerald Red]

To narrow it all down to those that just don't want to think about this for more than 10 seconds, we have to win every game from now until May, and have the teams above us either draw or lose a few times. Yeah, and pigs have to grow wings and fly too.

[Emerald Red]

Chelsea play the "big three" at Stanford Bridge so someone will drop points.

Yeah, including us, and when was the last time we won there again?

[Leonmc0708]

The questionable bits in that *dream*:

1. Arsenal will beat Spurs in a slug-fest at Emirates. Spurs don't have a defense to speak off. They will leak goals, but score a couple in the process. For the record, this is one game I would NOT bet any money on to predict the final score!

2. Chelsea will most probably beat Newcastle at Stamford Bridge - although this doesn't materially impact our *dream*, just that the blues will be closer to A and M.

3. Man City are 9-0 at home, and haven't looked like being beaten there all season. (Liverpool's week 3 at Man C)

Other than that, we can, and always should hope

I will give you the first two, but against Bolton it was never in the bag, in fact it was very much Bolton that looked like winnign the game.

The "if's" relate to simple points like:

What if Reading beat Liverpool (21 goals in 5 games going into it)

What if Boro beat Arsenal (the greatest thing since sliced bread and un beaten)

What if Bolton beat United (Bolton relegation fodder and the MAncs 6 straight wins going into it)

[burjennio]

2004 - Cheryou 1-0

[Leonmc0708]

To narrow it all down to those that just don't want to think about this for more than 10 seconds, we have to win every game from now until May, and have the teams above us either draw or lose a few times. Yeah, and pigs have to grow wings and fly too.

No we dont.

If we win and someone draws we gain 2 points.

[kunilson]

im all for being positive.

if ifs and buts were candy and nuts.....we'd all be fat .

[Leonmc0708]

im all for being positive.

if ifs and buts were candy and nuts.....we'd all be fat .

I already am mate.

[Owzat]

Chelsea play the "big three" at Stanford Bridge so someone will drop points.

Yeah, including us, and when was the last time we won there again?

Nine league games played under Rafa at Old Trafford, Stamford Bridge and at Emirates/Highbury and we've amassed a pitiful nil pwa

Knowing that even villa and Reading have got draws at one or more of these grounds I'd be interested to know how many sides have failed to win or gain a single point at any of the three grounds in the past three seasons.

Last league point(s) gained away to Arsenal, Man Utd or Chelsea*

10/12/06 Chelsea 1-1 Arsenal
30/09/06 Chelsea 1-1 Aston Villa
09/04/05 Chelsea 1-1 Birmingham
15/09/07 Chelsea 0-0 Blackburn
28/04/07 Chelsea 2-2 Bolton
06/05/07 Arsenal 1-1 Chelsea
11/11/07 Chelsea 1-1 Everton
29/09/07 Chelsea 0-0 Fulham
10/09/05 Man Utd 1-1 Man City
03/11/07 Arsenal 2-2 Man Utd
21/04/07 Man Utd 1-1 Middlesboro
18/11/06 Arsenal 1-1 Newcastle
16/12/06 Arsenal 2-2 Portsmouth
12/08/07 Man Utd 0-0 Reading
14/04/06 Man Utd 0-0 Sunderland
22/04/06 Arsenal 1-1 Tottenham
13/05/07 Man Utd 0-1 West Ham

Wigan, Derby and Liverpool are the only sides not to have picked up a point or more away to Arsenal, Man Utd or Chelsea in the three and a bit seasons Rafa has been in charge*. This is Derby's first season in the top flight in that period

*includes only current Premiership teams

[SouthCoastShankly]

I reason I personally think the title is out of reach is that unfortunately I cannot see Utd dropping many more points this season, whereas we will especially against the likes of Chelsea, Arsenal and Man Utd. Ferguson was right when he said that the team with the best top 4 head to head stats wins the league. And quite frankly our top 4 record is pathetic.