LFC #1 wrote:JBG wrote:4. China will eventually try to reclaim Tawain. Tawain is after all, Chinese, having been taken from the Chinese by Japan in the 19th century and then occupied by the defeated Nationalist army after 1949. Cold War geopolitics saw the US extend its nuclear umbrella to cover Tawain. The Chinese are chomping at the bit to invade the island, and as soon as they see a weakness in America, they will. Nothing is more certain, its simply a matter of time.
Taiwan is a little worrying.
As you say China wants Taiwan reclaimed, because of the "One China Policy". However the Taiwanese president has hinted he would actually like to see Taiwan become independent from China. If this were to happen China would invade it, and this is where the problem is as the US has said an attack on Taiwan woudl be regarded as an attack on the Us, and China and the US would be at war.
I doubt it'll happen though ,as their is so much trade and investment between China and the US now it wouldn't help their economies at all.
Yes, there is a lot of mutual interest between the US and China, but I think the Chinese might risk war over Taiwan when the time is right. I don't think the US would risk a large scale war over Tawain, although they would probably defend the island.
China is currently overhauling its aging armed forces, particularly its airforces and this is largely seen as a build up for an invasion of Tawain. However, my own feeling is that China will wait for a moment of weakness among Western democracies before invading: similar to Hitler's invasion of Czechoslovakia.