
(1) Our Winning Form
Some--not just Peewee--have suggested that we have started to see results once Rafa knocked the "over rotation" on the head and also when he started playing Gerrard through the middle. In order to discuss these points, however, we need to establish when our winning form kicked in--an issue that is not cut and dried. A few might point to the Aston Villa game back in October as a turning point: it was an emphatic win against a (then) in-form side in the wake of a tough loss at Old Trafford.
But, after dispatching Reading the following week, we got thumped by Arsenal at Emirates, then drew away to Boro before squeaking by Man City and drawing with Portsmouth both at home...not exactly a phenomenal run.
So, I suggest that our truly winning form didn't come until the start of December, when we recorded our first away win at Wigan (4-0!) and used that as a platform for wins over Fulham (H), Charlton (A) and Watford (H). After a blip at Blackburn, normal service was resumed with wins over Spurs (A), Bolton (H), Watford (A) and Chelsea (H). In these 9 matches we are 8-0-1 with a goal differential of +21 and 8 clean sheets. Of course, add in the results against Boro, Man City and Portsmouth and we are 9-2-1 with a goal differential of +22 and 11 clean sheets.
So, perhaps it is fair to say that we've come on in the 12 matches since losing away to Arsenal on November 12th, with the most impressive run starting with the away win at Wigan on December 2nd.
(2) Over Rotation?
So, we've played 24 games in the league so far but our good form has really only come on in the last 10 or 12 games. Is this down to a shift in Rafa's rotation policy? Not really. Prior to the draw at Boro, Rafa averaged 2.8 changes to his starting 11 from one Premiership game to the next (not factoring in intervening cup games, admittedly). Since the Boro match, Rafa has averaged 2.5 personnel changes per game. And, while some of Rafa's biggest personnel changes came early in the season (6 changes between the Sheffield United away draw and the home win against the Hammers; 5 changes between the Everton loss and the Chelsea loss) Rafa routinely changed 3 and, in the case of Bolton match, 4 starters from match to match during the last few weeks--due, naturally, to the jammed fixture list during the festive period.
So, with apologies to Peewee, the facts don't lie: Rafa is rotating just as much now--when we're the form team in the league--as he did at the beginning of the season. To me this indicates that "over rotation," in and of itself, can't solely account for our poor start to the season. For me it's a perception issue: like zonal marking, people only notice it and take issue with it when we're struggling. When everything's ticking, Rafa's rotation policy doesn't seem to bother people nearly as much.
(3) Our Midfield
While I don't think that over rotation is the reason for our struggling form, a look into the various team selections Rafa has made this season does point up the issue: selecting our best midfield. Now, I've lost count of the number of times people have urged Rafa to just play his "Best 11" but I don't think that's exactly what people mean. After all, in every department of the pitch save keeper (as Dudek underscored so spectacularly against Arsenal), we've tolerated--even embraced--some manner of rotation this season.
In defense, Rafa has been rotating Hyypia and Agger all season, to good effect. Indeed, a number of people are in favour of Agger being outright first choice to partner Carragher. To a lesser extent, the LB position has seen some rotation, although injuries to Aurelio and Warnock have limited this (and perhaps made JAR a little too complacent). Eleven clean sheets in our last 12 matches tells its own story: rotation in defence seems to be working, against all conventional wisdom about not tinkering with the back line.
In attack, Kuyt is clearly Rafa's first choice and will play most matches barring injury or the odd rest. Who partners Kuyt, though? Bellamy seems to be the choice, with 15 starts but Crouch has 12 starts himself (Robbie's obviously a squad player at this point, sadly). Given that all three have been scoring, making goals for others and contributing to our winning form, there's good arguments for rotation up top. Indeed, these boards have been filled with it.
So I don't think criticisms about rotation are aimed at either the defence or our strikers since both departments have seemed to take rotation in stride while maintaining a high level of performance. This leaves midfield as the problem department on the pitch.
The one constant in midfield, in terms of getting a game in a consistent position is Alonso. When fit, Xabi's been selected (the debacle at Sheffield United, aside). Gerrard's played every league match as well but, of course, he's done so in one of 3 different positions. Sissoko played 8 out of 11 matches until his injury, suggesting that he, too, was central (pun intended

This leaves the real problem areas--the wide positions. At RM, we've seen Gerrard 7 times, Pennant 12 times, Garcia 3 times (not counting the games we played 3-5-2, with Finnan in the wing-back role). I'll get back to the Gerrard on the right debate in a minute but, suffice to say, that had Pennant played to his potential from the off, I think we would have seen much less rotation at RM, given that Jermaine's been fit and available for virtually every game.
At LM the problem is even more pronounced, primarily because we don't have a Steven Gerrard to fill in there too (save his cameos wide left at Chelsea and Bolton). Gonzales and Garcia have staked the largest claims for the role, with 7 starts each. But, Riise has filled in 3 times and Aurelio twice (not counting wingback roles for either), suggesting that Rafa is still not entirely happy with Gonzo or Garcia in the LM role.
When you look at rotation carefully, then, it's clear that it's the wide positions that have caused the greatest disruption to the team sheet and the greatest angst to fans. Agger for Hyypia or Crouch for Bellamy does not seem to rock the boat too much, but Rafa's tinkering with the midfield has been disruptive. The question, of course, is: did he have a choice?
(4) Where to Play Gerrard
A major consequence of both Pennant's indifferent form and Sissoko's good form (one of our few quality players in the first 2 months, if you'll recall) was keeping Stevie at RM for much of the start of the season. Given his award-winning performances last season this hardly seemed a problem but his body language and form suggested different. He did not look a happy lad out wide and many a game seemed to pass him by. Then came Momo's injury and Gerrard's return to the middle. For those that plump for Stevie in the middle, the numbers look good: he played his last match on the right, I believe, against Arsenal--just days after Momo's injury at Birmingham (Rafa opted for a Zenden/Alonso CM partnership against Arsenal). Since then, he, and the team, have not looked back. Stevie's looked happier and hungrier in the middle, his form's improved, he's chipped in with a few goals and the team's winning again. Some see this as the reason for our resurgence and I'll certainly agree that it's been a major factor, alongside a run of games against poor teams that have allowed us to build confidence and momentum. The key for me is that the skipper seems happier and that makes him play much, much better.
But, does this mean that Rafa erred in playing him out wide rather than Pennant when Sissoko was fit? At the time, Jermaine often looked out of his depth while Momo was on form. Couple this with the problems occuring at LM and I can understand Rafa's decision to opt for 3/4 of the midfield that played such a huge part in our success last season. Of course, hindsight being what it is, perhaps it's easy to say that Rafa should have just gritted his teeth, stuck with Pennant on the right, and moved Gerrard into the middle ahead of Momo (or even a struggling Alonso, for some).
I don't have an answer to that one but it's a point worth debating. Less worthy of debate, for me, is this "over rotation" canard since the facts don't bear it out. To conclude (phew!!!) Rafa's still rotating much like he has all season but the results are much better. And, his most persistent rotations--Agger/Hyypia and Bellamy/Crouch--make sense and are working a treat. So, what say you, rotation-haters?
