Liverpool FC Forum

[Owzat]

You hear pundits and fans alike talking about teams who "can afford to lose only two or three games" if they want to win the Premiership. It is of course like approaching a horse from behind, so I decided to check it out for any relevance. I compiled this ahead of yesterday's game, seems like a good time to lift spirits after our first defeat of the season.

Most wins in each Premiership season

92/93 Man Utd (1st) 24, Aston Villa (2nd) 21, Norwich City (3rd) 21
93/94 Man Utd (1st) 27, Blackburn (2nd) 25
94/95 Blackburn (1st) 27, Man Utd (2nd) 26
95/96 Man Utd (1st) 25, Newcastle (2nd) 24
96/97 Man Utd (1st) 21, Newcastle (2nd) 19, Arsenal (3rd) 19, Liverpool (4th) 19
97/98 Arsenal (1st) 23, Man Utd (2nd) 23, Chelsea (4th) 20
98/99 Man Utd (1st) 22, Arsenal (2nd) 22
99/00 Man Utd (1st) 28, Arsenal (2nd) 22
00/01 Man Utd (1st) 24, Arsenal (2nd) 20, Liverpool (3rd) 20, Leeds Utd (4th) 20, Ipswich (5th) 20
01/02 Arsenal (1st) 26, Liverpool (2nd) 24, Man Utd (3rd) 24
02/03 Man Utd (1st) 23, Arsenal (2nd) 21
03/04 Arsenal (1st) 26, Chelsea (2nd) 24
04/05 Chelsea (1st) 29, Arsenal (2nd) 25
05/06 Chelsea (1st) 29, Man Utd (2nd) 25, Liverpool (3rd) 25
06/07 Man Utd (1st) 28, Chelsea (2nd) 24
07/08 Man Utd (1st) 27, Chelsea (2nd) 25

So the Champions of the Premiership win the most games, the runners-up are either clear second or joint second in terms of wins. Do the Champions always lose the least games? Pundits certainly love to talk about the number of games teams “can afford to lose” more than how many they need to win, maybe because they’re dealing with smaller numbers that are easier to identify – even if they’re just as likely to be wrong and winning is more important than not losing, as last season clearly showed.

Least defeats in each Premiership season

92/93 Man Utd (1st) 6, Aston Villa (2nd) 10
93/94 Man Utd (1st) 4, Arsenal (4th) 7
94/95 Man Utd (2nd) 6, Blackburn (1st) 7
95/96 Man Utd (1st) 6, Liverpool (3rd) 7
96/97 Man Utd (1st) 5, Newcastle (2nd) 8, Arsenal (3rd) 8, Liverpool (4th) 8
97/98 Arsenal (1st) 6, Man Utd (2nd) 7
98/99 Man Utd (1st) 3, Chelsea (3rd) 3
99/00 Man Utd (1st) 3, Arsenal (2nd) 9, Liverpool (4th) 9, Chelsea (5th) 9
00/01 Man Utd (1st) 6, Arsenal (2nd) 8
01/02 Arsenal (1st) 3, Liverpool (2nd) 6
02/03 Man Utd (1st) 5, Arsenal (2nd) 6
03/04 Arsenal (1st) 0, Chelsea (2nd) 7
04/05 Chelsea (1st) 1, Arsenal (2nd) 5, Man Utd (3rd) 5
05/06 Chelsea (1st) 5, Man Utd (2nd) 5
06/07 Chelsea (2nd) 3, Man Utd (1st) 5
07/08 Chelsea (2nd) 3, Arsenal (3rd) 3, Liverpool (4th) 4, Man Utd (1st) 5

While the Champions have always won the most games, even if only a joint accolade, lower placed teams have lost fewer games on three occaisions and lost joint fewest alongside the Champions on two other occaisions. Last season the Champions lost more games than the rest of the top four, so the talk of losing X games to win the league is largely pointless. Champions often lose few games but as much due winning most games and therefore they are likely to lose less.

Frequency of most wins and least defeats for Premiership Champions*

WINS

29 wins : 2 (04/05 & 05/06, both Chelsea)
28 wins : 2 (99/00 & 06/07, both Man Utd)
27 wins : 3 (94/94, 94/98 & 07/08)
26 wins : 2 (01/02 & 03/04, both Arsenal)
25 wins : 1 (95/96)
24 wins : 2 (92/93 & 00/01, both Man Utd)
23 wins : 2 (97/98 & 02/03)
22 wins : 1 (98/99)
21 wins : 1 (96/97)

*92/93, 93/94 & 94/95 were all seasons with 42 games

The average number of wins to be Champions has increased, the average over the past five years is 28 wins with Chelsea winning 29 wins in each of their two title seasons. This is much higher than the overall average of 25.5 wins for the 16 Premiership seasons – even if you ignore the Champions having FOUR more games in each of the first three seasons of the Premiership.

I have stated we should aim at 27 wins to be title contenders, this season looks like Chelsea could quite easily win 28, 29 or even more

DEFEATS

0 defeats : 1 (03/04, Arsenal)
1 defeat : 1 (04/05, Chelsea)
2 defeats : 0
3 defeats : 3 (98/99, 99/00 & 01/02)
4 defeats : 1 (93/94, Man Utd)
5 defeats : 5 (96/97, 02/03, 04/05, 06/07 & 07/08)
6 defeats : 4 (92/93, 95/96, 97/98 & 00/01)
7 defeats : 1 (94/95, Blackburn)

So the Champions losing two or three games is in fact not that common, happening only three times in 16 seasons - and I can't find a season where they've lost exactly two. The past three seasons have seen the Champions lose five games, so much for only being able to “afford to lose two or three games”. The average for the past five seasons is three defeats, the overall average is 4.5 defeats for the Champions - again remembering that they played four extra games in 92/93, 93/94 and 94/95, and in those seasons the Champions lost six, four and seven games respectively (average  of six) The average number of defeats suffered by Champions in the 13 seasons with only 38 games is almost exactly four.

Unbeaten was ever so unlikely, despite our start being better than Arsenal's in their unbeaten season. Even one defeat is a rarity, we're losing about one every eleven games so three or four overall would not be disastrous.


Anyway, no team wins more games than the team that wins the Premiership, while teams have been known to lose less games and not win the Premiership. What is also significant is the Champions have always been in the top two scoring sides in the Premiership, unfortunately Liverpool have only been in that position three times and are way behind in goalscoring this season despite having £40m+ worth of strikers - £50m+ if you count Kuyt. The Champions aren't always top scorers, but have been on 10 occaisions out of 16 seasons - and the last three seasons in a row.

[tonyeh]

Nah....just kiddin' Mr Mainwaring 

[Woollyback]

'kin ell stato

[burjennio]

this thread made me so dizzy I threw up a little

[Effes]

I was gonna post a similar thread before the game yesterday.

Its the wins which win you the league.

To get 27 we are gonna have to win some harder games than last night's.

But the performance last night has me believing we can win those games.

[lakes10]

we still have it all in our hands, and i feel we can still win the Prem.
It was just a very bad time to meet Spurs.

[RUSHIE#9]

we still have it all in our hands, and i feel we can still win the Prem.
It was just a very bad time to meet Spurs.

Exactly Lakes, I said in the match thread on Friday that I felt meeting Spurs now was gonna be harder than a 10 days ago because of the change in Manager.

It's one game and as long as we take 30 out of the next 36 points I'll be convinced we can take the title.
That might sound like a tough ask, but when you look at the league fixtures over that period then we should be achieving that total without batting an eyelid.

The first defeat of the season is always hard to swallow, especially off the back of last weeks top result but it's only one game.

If anyone is panicking then all I've got to say is:

YOU STUPID BOY!!! 

[LFC2007]

How many draws can we afford?

[heimdall]

How many draws can we afford?

Well it's simple maths really isn't it, we can only afford to NOT win 11 times in a season, and of those 11 times we should not loose more than max 5 times, i,e we should be aiming for better than 27 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats.

[LFC2007]

How many draws can we afford?

Well it's simple maths really isn't it, we can only afford to NOT win 11 times in a season, and of those 11 times we should not loose more than max 5 times, i,e we should be aiming for better than 27 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats.

I was looking for an Owzat statistical explanation.

[heimdall]

How many draws can we afford?

Well it's simple maths really isn't it, we can only afford to NOT win 11 times in a season, and of those 11 times we should not loose more than max 5 times, i,e we should be aiming for better than 27 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats.

I was looking for an Owzat statistical explanation.

Sorry but I always try and help dumb animals 

[account deleted by request]

How many draws can we afford?

Well it's simple maths really isn't it, we can only afford to NOT win 11 times in a season, and of those 11 times we should not loose more than max 5 times, i,e we should be aiming for better than 27 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats.

I was looking for an Owzat statistical explanation.

Sorry but I always try and help dumb animals 

[maypaxvobiscum]

Heimdall

[LFC2007]

How many draws can we afford?

Well it's simple maths really isn't it, we can only afford to NOT win 11 times in a season, and of those 11 times we should not loose more than max 5 times, i,e we should be aiming for better than 27 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats.

I was looking for an Owzat statistical explanation.

Sorry but I always try and help dumb animals 

[duk]

a few seasons ago I for one would have settled for a draw against chelksi away followed by a draw against spurs away

1 win 1 loss in these fixtures is better than 2 draws (even if it should have been 2 wins :@ grr)

not the end of the world