Liverpool FC Forum

by **bigmick** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 10:01 pm

It's certainly kicked the hornets nest a bit my theory about the relative ease of Champions league progression, but while one or two have scoffed dismissively and many have taken unmbrage at the cheek of the whole idea, nobody has really nailed a counter argument to the facts in hand.

The facts in hand are roughly (as I don't do stats anymore than I do names of Eastern European football teams) that firstly the same four English teams qualify for the thing every single year, with the exception of one fleeting appearance by Everton. Three out of the four teams in the semi finals are the same as last year, and they are all English clubs (Man Utd, Chelsea and Liverpool). We've actually made the semi's three times in the last four years, and Chelsea I think four times in the last five years while even the Mancs have got there a couple of time as well. Arsenal reached the final in the year we didn't, and I think the last English club to perish at the group stage was Man U a few years back. English teams avoid each other until the last eight, and up to that point as long as they avoid Barca, Madrid or Bayern Munich ought to be considered strong favourites against whoever they play. It is infact possible to get to the last eight and play a mid-table Italian team like Man Utd did. Rare but not impossible.

So people can convince themselves all they like that getting into the top four and then getting out of the group in the Champions League and going on a run is some kind of Shanklyesque achievement, but given he current financial state of football in Europe and the total dominance of the English clubs, I don't buy it. Now I know one or two are taking this as being some sort of dig at Rafa but it isn't at all, his achievements in getting to the final twice and winning it once are excellent, my gripe really is with the competition. I'm also making the point that if now and in the future we use success in the Champions League as our measuring stick, we will get it every year for the forseeable.

Should we lose to Chelsea on this occasion and they go onto win it, they could concieveably claim their Champions League record over recent times is equal to ours, such is the fragile nature of asprations biuilt on a cup competition where the bigger teams get a free ticket to the last 16. MY guess is that next year, when all the same teams are in the quarter and semi finals again, that journo's and writers will begin then to pick up on the recent phenomenon. Perhaps we can debate it again then, and perhaps by then we will have been at least fleetingly for a moment involved in a title race and we can all start talking comparisons with previous managers.

by **66-1112520797** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 10:09 pm

dawson99 wrote:
Bad Bob wrote:
dawson99 wrote:ok bad bob, show me how we have done first 10 games of seasnos since he came, how much weve swapped players and tried to settle in due to buying too many mediocre players.. just that my 'lazy arguament' is there because facts show that we dont perform early on when it matetrs in the league

You misunderstand, mate. You're right to say we haven't performed well early doors in the league under Rafa (this past season being our best start under him but still not good enough). But that doesn't mean that Rafa doesn't care about the league. You (and several others) are turning a criticism about his methods into a criticism about his desire which is, IMO, both completely wrong and rather lazy. Clearly you think his rotation policy and his transfer policy are flawed and have cost us the opportunity to get off to good starts in the league. Those are valid questions worthy of discussion. But, just because you don't endorse these methods doesn't mean that Rafa doesn't employ them in good faith, with conviction that they will bring us success.

well if you think my opinion is 'lazy', where are the facts about your oh so better opinion? because judging by league standings my point seems slightly more valid than your blind faith

Good point Daws. :nod

Its "lazy" and dismisive to think Rafa has puit both competitions on par with eachother, sorry lazy and dismisive arent the right words, just plain old blind faith, from the same old posters who just dismiss any critisism of the manager.

Reading 3 Liverpool 1.

by **bigmick** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 10:22 pm

This priority of league versus Champions League one is interesting. Either Rafa tries his best in the Prem but has had absolutely zero success in it, or the reason he has had absolutely zero success is because he's not trying in it.

Either way round and I and everybody else I would guess have no way of knowing his inner thoughts, I would quite like a bit of success in it if thats OK. So if he's not been trying in the Premiership before, next season is a good place to start. If he has been trying but is infact just useless in the Premiership, then stop being useless as from next season. There, sorted

by **Sabre** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 10:23 pm

If you say, play Torres and sit down Kuyt because blah blah, that's the kind of criticism I can understand and actually discuss.

If you say Rafa doesn't give the league the importance it deserves or he's insulted, then I can't discuss nor accept that. It's indeed like when some posters try to slash Gerrard for a bad game saying he hasn't the right attitude -- when you dislike someone, you don't forgive him even the slightest mistake, let alone a bad match.

When you dislike a player, you spot his first mistake (and you will because every player makes a mistake at some point) and say "sloppy game of <here your disliked player>". If the same player does things well later on, those will be overlooked or minimised. That's how the football fan mind works no matter if you're in China or Spain.

Equally, when you dislike a manager and you want him sácked, you start seeing a mistake in every decission, you credit your fav player for the victories, you blame the manager for every defeat or draw.

I know well these football cycles, my local team has had 14 coaches in 3 years

, so it's actually the same process of being fed up of the manager, but only that in Spain occurs every 3 months, not 4 years.

I think we can agree to criticise rotation, team selections, or anything related football. But the kind of criticism that suggest that Rafa doesn't care, or doesn't give enough importance to the league, or whatever, it's not on. IMHO.

by **Bad Bob** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 10:30 pm

bigmick wrote:the same four English teams qualify for the thing every single year, with the exception of one fleeting appearance by Everton. Three out of the four teams in the semi finals are the same as last year, and they are all English clubs (Man Utd, Chelsea and Liverpool). We've actually made the semi's three times in the last four years, and Chelsea I think four times in the last five years while even the Mancs have got there a couple of time as well. Arsenal reached the final in the year we didn't, and I think the last English club to perish at the group stage was Man U a few years back. English teams avoid each other until the last eight, and up to that point as long as they avoid Barca, Madrid or Bayern Munich ought to be considered strong favourites against whoever they play.

Okay, Mick, the numbers about the recent success of English clubs in the Champions League are certainly not in dispute. Say for a moment that you're right--that this is an emerging trend and that, as English football continues to outpace rival leagues in terms of wealth, we'll soon see the Champions League utterly dominated by English clubs (if we don't already).

Given that, how do you respond to Taff's point; namely, that the superiority of English football means that we are really, really up against it in the league. After all, we don't just have to duke it out with the Mancs, Arsenal and Chelsea in Europe but domestically as well. And, just as England has a far richer league than its European cousins, so too are Man U and Chelsea far richer than we are. If we are indeed competing against arguably the three best clubs in Europe in our own domestic league year in, year out but with fewer resources, is it really reasonable to expect to win the title? Sure, we can turn our rivals over in the two-legged chess matches that are CL knockout rounds but can't seem to go toe to toe with them over a 38 game schedule. Besides, picking a settled side (natch), what needs to happen to properly compete for the title given the acknowledged strength of our competition?

by **redtrader74** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 10:36 pm

No more Rafa style (whatever the fck it is now, every week a new facet is added to that) Bob, that'll solve everything, G&H will even kiss and make up, the transfer kitty will ten-fold, and even Parry will sign up players within a year or two of them being identified.

by **Sabre** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 10:36 pm

It's undeniable the recent english dominance in the last 3 years. It's debatable that won't be part of a cycle. The last Spanish dominance, in the early 2K, gave even a Spanish final and everything. The clubs had the fresh money of new tv contracts, and Mancester United got a 4-0 a good wednesday in Barcelona.

Within the next two years Spanish clubs will have new tv contracts, or perhaps the Italians will raise again. It's been cycles always, and sincerely, I think it will be continuing being cycles. I don't see any decade-dominance of a single's countries clubs.

by **bigmick** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 10:42 pm

I did notice Taffs point Bob and actually somebody else raised it earlier, the "so you are saying the Premiership is harder to win then" and of course I am. You can't have it both ways in any argument, it's as sure as night follows day that if English teams are dominant in Europe (which they are) then the Premiership is hard to win. Trying to have it both ways in an argument is daft and it's exasperating when you come up against it. It's like saying "it's nothing to do with rotation" when we are misfiring left right and centre in the early part of the season, and then saying "it's because of a lack of rotation" when Arsenal fail by ten minutes or so to put us out of the champions league. Nothing to do with being fractionally unlucky with a couple of penalty decisons, nothing to do with one of their own blokes clearing it off the line for us, it's all down to rotation innit?

I argued with people until i was blue in the face earlier in the season, many of them saying that mass rotation doesn't have any effect on fluency whatsoever, none, nada

Needless to say those same people are now all over the Arsenal example :laugh:

I bet Wengers gutted, he could have done it the same as us and been out of it by Christmas if he'd played his cards right, would've saved him getting his hopes up anyway.

Seriously though (and I am only jesting) on the question of the Premiership it's hard to win as there are three excellent teams in it apart from us. One of the things which grates though, is not that we haven't actually won it during rafa's reign, its that we have never, ever, not for a nanosecond even challenged for it. The other thing that grates of course is that we have absolutely no excuse whatsover to be scrapping with the likes of Everton, Villa and Portsmouth fopr fourth place. Given our superiority to those teams, we should be over the horizon and visible only with binoculars long before the run in.

by **bigmick** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 10:45 pm

Sabre wrote:It's undeniable the recent english dominance in the last 3 years. It's debatable that won't be part of a cycle.

It's absolutely debateable sabes, but I'm just calling it early. Next season, the season after that and the one after that, English clubs will dominate it. After that I'm not sure though

by **taff** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 10:47 pm

bigmick wrote:It's certainly kicked the hornets nest a bit my theory about the relative ease of Champions league progression, but while one or two have scoffed dismissively and many have taken unmbrage at the cheek of the whole idea, nobody has really nailed a counter argument to the facts in hand.

The facts in hand are roughly (as I don't do stats anymore than I do names of Eastern European football teams) that firstly the same four English teams qualify for the thing every single year, with the exception of one fleeting appearance by Everton. Three out of the four teams in the semi finals are the same as last year, and they are all English clubs (Man Utd, Chelsea and Liverpool). We've actually made the semi's three times in the last four years, and Chelsea I think four times in the last five years while even the Mancs have got there a couple of time as well. Arsenal reached the final in the year we didn't, and I think the last English club to perish at the group stage was Man U a few years back. English teams avoid each other until the last eight, and up to that point as long as they avoid Barca, Madrid or Bayern Munich ought to be considered strong favourites against whoever they play. It is infact possible to get to the last eight and play a mid-table Italian team like Man Utd did. Rare but not impossible.

So people can convince themselves all they like that getting into the top four and then getting out of the group in the Champions League and going on a run is some kind of Shanklyesque achievement, but given he current financial state of football in Europe and the total dominance of the English clubs, I don't buy it. Now I know one or two are taking this as being some sort of dig at Rafa but it isn't at all, his achievements in getting to the final twice and winning it once are excellent, my gripe really is with the competition. I'm also making the point that if now and in the future we use success in the Champions League as our measuring stick, we will get it every year for the forseeable.

Should we lose to Chelsea on this occasion and they go onto win it, they could concieveably claim their Champions League record over recent times is equal to ours, such is the fragile nature of asprations biuilt on a cup competition where the bigger teams get a free ticket to the last 16. MY guess is that next year, when all the same teams are in the quarter and semi finals again, that journo's and writers will begin then to pick up on the recent phenomenon. Perhaps we can debate it again then, and perhaps by then we will have been at least fleetingly for a moment involved in a title race and we can all start talking comparisons with previous managers.

Platini is looking at addressing this issue but thats another debate.

Fourth and out of group stages is hardly a Shanklesque achievement and surely nobody thinks that, winning the whole thing with a relatively weak squad is on the other hand a good achievement.

Is your gripe with the CL or with us. My debate on this would be that qualification to the CL and the PL money hence attracting better players etc has made PL teams stronger than their counterparts in Europe, probably stronger than when English teams seemed to win it every year, and logic suggests that we are in for a period of English domination a la 1977 to 1985

So if we look back at History, especially since the CL started and the PL took off then we are relative newcomers to this as top four is relatively recent and we fell apart with the introduction of Sky and the premiership. The gradual strengthening of top PL teams with the experience gained in the CL surely then added up to English teams becoming richer and eventually top dogs in Europe.

This then must mean that Istanbul surely was more miraculous than we might have originally thought.

So, apart from Chelsea who bought their way to the top table but good luck to them as I cant be bothered with them in this debate, we LFC are regardless of our history, newcomers to the time of unparallelled growth we are now witnessing in the PL and CL regarding English clubs. So regarding Rafa, he started behind the others. I dont know if you remember the show Gladiators but its like the last race when Man Utd and Arsenal have started before us and we have to wait a few seconds before we enter the race. Regardless of our progress, if the others are progressing at a rate then we will still be behind. Now if you think that Rafa is incapable of bridging that gap then thats your view, but unless we have serious cash that gap will not be closed in a short period of time.

Now you can point at money Rafa has spent but to do this you must look at the long term amount of spending and coaching that Man Utd and Arsenal have done over the last ten years at least to make them the players they are now. I personally liked Houllier but as much as he modernised the club we were left in a position behind other clubs, again this gap we have to bridge.

Regarding the CL as well.

Serie A is in a kind of turmoil but watch out if they recover and sort out their TV deals etc as the PL has left them behind

Real Madrid and Barca in all honesty must regard themselves as underachievers in Europe as they seem to share the favourites to win tag every year or is it that the thing is hard to win.

If we criticise Rafa in the league then we must criticise Fergie as apart from a one off in 99 it has taken him over ten years to suss Europe out and get his team to the later stages with regularity, same goes for wenger as well. For the top two in the top league with the most money this must be seen as a failure.

I dont want to blindly defend Rafa but to infer criticism of top four and group stages as being easy then why didnt Houllier do it with the regularity we have seen Rafa do it. Maybe the guy is a good manager but needs the squad to achieve the two front campaign.

I would concede that if we spend in the summer and are off the pace or out of the league come xmas then we must either change manager or change tack and ignore all cup competitions until we are competing in the league over the whole season, but if we are in the hunt for the league next April but well out of the CL and Rafa bashers on here moan then, to be honest I dont know what I would say

by **crazyhorse** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 10:51 pm

Not on topic, but I would like to say here and now that I have and am enjoying this thread very much. There are so many informative and relevent posts and it is making for a quality debate. This could be the first time this has happened for some time.....
Thought it should be noted. And I extend my thanks to all involved as it really is good to read.

by **god_bless_john_houlding** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 10:52 pm

Bad Bob wrote:
bigmick wrote:the same four English teams qualify for the thing every single year, with the exception of one fleeting appearance by Everton. Three out of the four teams in the semi finals are the same as last year, and they are all English clubs (Man Utd, Chelsea and Liverpool). We've actually made the semi's three times in the last four years, and Chelsea I think four times in the last five years while even the Mancs have got there a couple of time as well. Arsenal reached the final in the year we didn't, and I think the last English club to perish at the group stage was Man U a few years back. English teams avoid each other until the last eight, and up to that point as long as they avoid Barca, Madrid or Bayern Munich ought to be considered strong favourites against whoever they play.

Okay, Mick, the numbers about the recent success of English clubs in the Champions League are certainly not in dispute. Say for a moment that you're right--that this is an emerging trend and that, as English football continues to outpace rival leagues in terms of wealth, we'll soon see the Champions League utterly dominated by English clubs (if we don't already).

Given that, how do you respond to Taff's point; namely, that the superiority of English football means that we are really, really up against it in the league. After all, we don't just have to duke it out with the Mancs, Arsenal and Chelsea in Europe but domestically as well. And, just as England has a far richer league than its European cousins, so too are Man U and Chelsea far richer than we are. If we are indeed competing against arguably the three best clubs in Europe in our own domestic league year in, year out but with fewer resources, is it really reasonable to expect to win the title? Sure, we can turn our rivals over in the two-legged chess matches that are CL knockout rounds but can't seem to go toe to toe with them over a 38 game schedule. Besides, picking a settled side (natch), what needs to happen to properly compete for the title given the acknowledged strength of our competition?

might of been aimed at mick but I'll answer it because by the time mick gets to the answer you'll be asleep

(sorry mick)

If we're playing Chelsea in the league and it's 1-1 after 85 minutes will you see us pushing for a winner? I don't think you would. I think Benitez would be quite happy with a draw, and he has that luxery if you like because the league is a longer format and he probably feels we can pick up those dropped points elsewhere. In Europe you don't get second chances at the knockout stage. If it's 1-1 at Anfield (second leg, 0-0 first leg) then we're out on away goals, so he has to take the risk. But in answer to the question, Benitez needs to see you don't get second chances in the league either and risks need to be taken. If we draw against Chelsea but beat Derby, have we picked up the two points dropped at Chelsea? No. We've still dropped those two points, and this is where we're falling apart. We've been very happy with the mentality of "not losing" for far to long. We don't seem to have it in us, reguarlly, to force a win in the last five minutes of a league match. We may of scored late goals to draw but not win. This for me is one of the biggest differences between us and the rest. Unlike the top three, who's mentality seems to be to win, ours is not to lose. Sort that out, we could be right up there.

by **bigmick** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 10:56 pm

One other thing about nthis "domination" thing. It's not so much that it's English clubs, it's just that it's so few clubs.

Look the big clubs are getting exactly what they wanted out of the Champions League. The old European Cup format was no good to them at all, the holders could draw a lively candidate and get put out in the first round (like we did against Forest) or you could draw somebody in the early rounds, have a bad night and come a cropper (like we did against Dynamo Tibliski or however the feck you spell it). Even worse, you could not win your domestic championship and not get in the thing in the first place.

No, the big clubs wanted guaranteed income, the certainty of huge matches for TV later in the season every year. So there's four big clubs in England? Well you need to finsih in the top four to qualify then. You might lose matches early in the season while your getting fit/styling/bedding in new players? We'll do a group thing then, top two go through. We'll also make sure every groups got a no-hoper in to give you all a chance, and we'll kind of seed it to make it even more certain you'll progress. Allied to that, like in the Premiership the big clubs get looked at favourably by the referees, the rules get changed if a big club finishes outside the qualification segment in their league and hey presto, the biggest clubs get through to the latter rounds every time. No criticism of Rafa or Liverpool here, I'm simply making the point that when you are given a golden ticket in a competition, you shouldn't always be getting out the bunting when the team actually accepts whats been offered.

by **crazyhorse** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 10:57 pm

god_bless_john_houlding wrote:
Bad Bob wrote:
bigmick wrote:the same four English teams qualify for the thing every single year, with the exception of one fleeting appearance by Everton. Three out of the four teams in the semi finals are the same as last year, and they are all English clubs (Man Utd, Chelsea and Liverpool). We've actually made the semi's three times in the last four years, and Chelsea I think four times in the last five years while even the Mancs have got there a couple of time as well. Arsenal reached the final in the year we didn't, and I think the last English club to perish at the group stage was Man U a few years back. English teams avoid each other until the last eight, and up to that point as long as they avoid Barca, Madrid or Bayern Munich ought to be considered strong favourites against whoever they play.

Okay, Mick, the numbers about the recent success of English clubs in the Champions League are certainly not in dispute. Say for a moment that you're right--that this is an emerging trend and that, as English football continues to outpace rival leagues in terms of wealth, we'll soon see the Champions League utterly dominated by English clubs (if we don't already).

Given that, how do you respond to Taff's point; namely, that the superiority of English football means that we are really, really up against it in the league. After all, we don't just have to duke it out with the Mancs, Arsenal and Chelsea in Europe but domestically as well. And, just as England has a far richer league than its European cousins, so too are Man U and Chelsea far richer than we are. If we are indeed competing against arguably the three best clubs in Europe in our own domestic league year in, year out but with fewer resources, is it really reasonable to expect to win the title? Sure, we can turn our rivals over in the two-legged chess matches that are CL knockout rounds but can't seem to go toe to toe with them over a 38 game schedule. Besides, picking a settled side (natch), what needs to happen to properly compete for the title given the acknowledged strength of our competition?

might of been aimed at mick but I'll answer it because by the time mick gets to the answer you'll be asleep (sorry mick)

If we're playing Chelsea in the league and it's 1-1 after 85 minutes will you see us pushing for a winner? I don't think you would. I think Benitez would be quite happy with a draw, and he has that luxery if you like because the league is a longer format and he probably feels we can pick up those dropped points elsewhere. In Europe you don't get second chances at the knockout stage. If it's 1-1 at Anfield (second leg, 0-0 first leg) then we're out on away goals, so he has to take the risk. But in answer to the question, Benitez needs to see you don't get second chances in the league either and risks need to be taken. If we draw against Chelsea but beat Derby, have we picked up the two points dropped at Chelsea? No. We've still dropped those two points, and this is where we're falling apart. We've been very happy with the mentality of "not losing" for far to long. We don't seem to have it in us, reguarlly, to force a win in the last five minutes of a league match. We may of scored late goals to draw but not win. This for me is one of the biggest differences between us and the rest. Unlike the top three, who's mentality seems to be to win, ours is not to lose. Sort that out, we could be right up there.

I agree to a certain extent. We are not picking up too many points when we are playing badly - or at least we were not before this season.

I do see things getting better. We are no longer completely dependant on Steven Gerrard to carry us through games when we are playing poorly. Now we have Fernando who has already shown can grab a goal from nowhere and others showing promise such as Babel. The future is looking better, but then again have we been saying this for too long already?

by **taff** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 11:01 pm

Like detective Columbo I too have one more thing

The CL success we have had has had an extremely positive affect on the squad, they are confident and teams are genuinely scared of us, Arsenal and Chelsea might mock us but its a mocking of a scared man, like Bernard Hopkins mocking Calzaghe

But in the league we have not yet got that swagger that the other three seem to have, well maybe not Arsenal who are seriously affected by the fact they did not rotate earlier on in the season

Not my views just the same media who crucified Rafa for rotating. But the key is the confidence and the steel to be involved in the league, now that is Rafas job and I hope he is here next season to prove he can do it

Liverpool FC Forum

Progress Under Rafa - Analysis and Opinion

Who is online