Liverpool FC Forum

by **TheoRacle** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 3:05 am

Plenty has been said as to the team's performances this season with many bagging us for poor football and despairing of the formation and tactics that Rafa uses in the prem.

It has also been said that our lack of touch in front of goal is letting us down.

So I have been busy examining our performances to see if I could quantify and objectively measure our perfromances compared to the other teams in the league.

I'm sure there'll be some who dismiss this approach but what the heck - I support Liverpool FC and I will push the positives whenever I can!

Anyway this is what I found:

Liverpool are currently sitting in 12th position on the ladder however our ability to create scoring chances is second only to Chelsea.

Top 5 teams by shots per game:
Chelsea 15.33
Liverpool 12.60
Arsenal 12.18
Man Utd 12.00
Man City 11.83

Interestingly Wigan are 14th on 9.00 and unsurprisingly Everton are 19th on 7.64 shots per game.

In terms of controlling the run of play Arsenal are the masters having on average 56.0% of possession. We're second on 55.1% with Chelsea a close but definate 3rd on 55.0% ha ha!

Chelsea however make best use of their posession:

Top teams by shots per minute of possession:
1st Chelsea 0.31 shots per minute
2nd Middlesborough 0.28 shots per minute
Equal 3rd Man Utd 0.26 shots per minute
Charlton 0.26 shots per minute
Equal 5th Liverpool 0.25 shots per minute
Bolton 0.25 shots per minute

Wigan are 14th on 0.20 and Everton equal last on 0.18 shots per minute of possession held.

Defensively, Liverpool have the equal 3rd best record conceding only 8 goals after Wigan with 5 and Chelsea with 7.

We do have the lowest number of saves required per game though with Pepe making only 3.20 compared with Tottenhams 3.42, Arsenal's 3.45, and Chelsea's 3.5.

So it appears that we are right up there at the top, having good possession a significant number of shots when we do have the ball and our defense is working well and protecting Pepe.

What's the problem then? Why aren't we in the top three? :help

Apart from the obvious games in hand it seems that our finishing is the key. Of our 12.60 shots per game only 44% of them are on target. Worryingly only Aston Villa do worse with 43% of their shots on target. Compare this with Arsenal and surprisingly West Ham who manage to get 63% and 61% of their shots on target respectively.

So who are the best finishers in the league? Did any one guess Newcastle? Any Owen fans out their will jump on this I'm sure, but Newcastle manage to put away 37% of their on target attempts and 16% of all shots combined. They beat Chelsea with 28% and 15% followed by Wigan on 27% and 13%. Hate to say it but we manage to convert 15% of on target attempts but only 6% of total shots.

At least the only team below us in this regard is Everton who convert only 4% of all shots.

Conclusion:

Chelsea are playing well and displaying the level of performance that kind of money should get you; Arsenal and Man Utd both doing well. Wigan working hard and taking their chances albeit with some good helpings of luck (personal opinion only).

And Liverpool:- Get a few more shots on target boys! Lets test the opposition keeper more and if we keep on playing the way we are we should be looking at 2nd spot come the end of the season.

For those who dont believe this... I have the spreadsheet to prove it! :buttrock

by **LFC #1** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 3:19 am

love it

by **76-1115222408** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 3:36 am

Excellent post, but thats what you have to provide us with considering your name!

by **A.B.** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 3:45 am

Stats don't lie but they can be manipulated.

by **115-1073096938** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 3:45 am

Class user name, class post.

Well impressed.

The only things i can say are, stats do lie and can be twisted, Wigan make their own luck and i doubt (but see its possible) we'll finish second.

On the whole though, one of the best posts i've read in ages. Would be nice if they were all as optimistic and well written, sometimes though, its not always possible.

I do, however, think you need to get laid.

by **TheoRacle** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 3:56 am

Lol - I'll remind the missus.

by **azriahmad** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 4:40 am

Just like Stu said, stats do lie and more importantly, stats can be made to distort and twist the "stats-based" report or review against the actual incidences in the match.

You have a statistics to say that so-and-so team had the highest goal attempts or more vaguely "shots per game". What does this mean? What constitute shots per game? A long hopeful punt into the opposition penalty area which while on target or slightly off target in relation to the goal but not at all threathening the 'keeper or defenders, can be considered a "shot"? Or is it the same for an aimless wild shot from outside the opposition penalty with no real hope or intent of endangering let alone scoring?

Sometime ago there was a thread saying that according to the stats, Theiry Henry ranks below Milan Baros in terms of goals scored to shots goal attempts ratio which is really silly if used to say that based on this, Baros is better than Henry.

There should be a stat based on the number of actual threathening moves/shots and then we can see where we really are. Wayward goal attempts or hopeful punts shouls be excluded from this count.

Wigan may have a low count on this stat, but I am sure their shot attempts are actually goal threatheining ones and it also shhows that their players are more prolific than, sadly, out multi-million pound but goal shy and very wasteful strikers. We are where we are in the league table because we do not have an effective style of play to exploit the strengths of Cisse or Morro or Crouch - basically a lack of wide quality to provide the necessary passing delivery and ability to open up the opposition to make the 4-5-1 work. As a matter of fact, Liverpool had been relying too much on goals from the midfield and it speaks a lot about our present state that Alonso's goals have been so crucial when he is not naturally an attacking midfield player.

TheoRacle, if you do have these stats on spreadsheet, then perhaps you really need to get laid...

by **TheoRacle** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 4:53 am

Azriahmad some links you might like to try:

Somewhere else

Not here

:eyebrow

All the stats used were taken from ESPN Soccernet so it's their interpretation of whats a shot and whats not that was used. I make no representation about whether I agree or not as obviously I didn't sit through each and every game and make my own decision.

I assume their inclusion of the shots on goal figure is designed to portray some kind of accuracy qualification. My two paragraphs on finishing was my attempt at quantifying accuracy. Take it or leave it.

And yes I do indeed have the spreadsheet - Excel is a wonderful thing. If you know what you're doing a couple of hours is all it takes to put one together. You might not be able to spare that amount time in your efforts to get laid but some of us obviously have a better strike rate than others.

by **babu** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 5:40 am

Great post TheOracle,

Some thoughts:
The stats you present are as of now right? ie just before mid season. A way to see if this kind of statistical analysing is worth a pinch of salt, is to look at past seasons.

applying the same process u just did to the last two seasons then see if the teams which rate 1,2,3,4 etc actually finished 1,2,3,4. I could probaly do this except that I may not use the same method or source and I'm lazy.

would be interesting tho.....

by **TheoRacle** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 5:51 am

Yes Babu - stats reflect games played to date.

I agree - would definately be interesting to see comparison against last year. The stats for last season are still on Soccernet so it would just be a matter of plugging them into the spreadsheet. TBH though I'm kind of hesitant at the though of updating my records with the balance of this seasons results each week let alone doing it all over for last season!

Still will stick it on my 'projects to do when the boss is at a conference' list - you never know.

by **bigmick** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 7:47 am

It's a brilliant read mate and very thought provoking. I don't necessarily agree with all your conclusions but that's the whole point of a good topic-starter, it provokes debate. FWIW I don't think statistics lie, it's how they are interpreted where the indescretions occur. For instance we are still early enough in the season for your "number of saves per game" stat to be massively influenced by who you have played and whether or not it was at Home.
Also, no offence to Azriahmad but the response to his post was a classic. You don't post that often mate but when you do, it's quality stuff. Thanks.

by **azriahmad** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 8:49 am

Yes, TheoRacle's response to mine is indeed classic, and I do enjoy this kind of forum. I take no offense and I didn't intend to offend TheoRacle, I just liked Stu's closing line.

However, I do think that we are still far off from having enough quality to mount a serious challenge to Chelsea, stats or no stats. Having said that, I think we are playing better in the EPL than last season but we are not that much better to be nearer tht top, not yet.

If some of you don't know it yet, I do love Liverpool Football Club dearly, since 1976, and as much as I want to believe it, we are nowhere near as good as second, not on the evidence of the playing style and effectiveness we have shown to date.

Europe and the CL is a different matter, as we are simply oozing class and confidence. Liverpool FC in the CL is just the kind of form champions should show regularly, game in, game out.

I am much more sure than not that Benitez is the man, because his amazing record at Valencia, against the financial might of Real, Barca and other bigger clubs is a testiment to his abilities. The only baffling thing is that the EPL is proving to be such a steep learning curve for a man of his abilities. His signings have not worked out more than they have and his preferred tactics can't seem to be maximised at the moment, maybe due to some combinations of lack of quality (wide men), confidence (strikers) and desire (shown by some players).

by **woof woof !** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 9:35 am

Stats don't lie ,ok ,but the can certainly confuse. If the egg heads that compiled these stats are so clever ,instead of 0.25 shots per minute of posession why couldn't they just say one shot per 4 minutes of posession ?
If our average posession per game is 55.1 (49.59 minutes over 90 mins) we would have 12.39 shots per game or in earth language 12 shots and a Crouch header. Therefore surely our best tactic is to attempt to rack up the stoppage time , as (for example ) an additional 5 mins of time added on would give us 52.34 mins of posession which in turn would translate into 13.08 shots and hey presto Crouch's header goes in .

by **azriahmad** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 9:47 am

U funny woof!

by **tubby** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 10:43 am

If we wone our 2 games in hand and were level with the rest we would be second ish i think.

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