bigmick wrote:I got to thinking while we were discussing the "same number of points as last season" stat (which now appears to have been disproven) about progress over Rafa's period as manager.
Now I don't think there's too much doubt that we currently have a better team than the one which he miraculously guided to Champions League success. That debate though has been done to death, so without getting into it now, lets just assume for the sake of argument that it is so.
The point of the question and indeed the post is this, assuming we have progressed, how much is it by and is quickly enough to realistically expect us to at some stage win the title? Also, given the financial investment we have made, is the progression a fair return or not?
My reading without resorting to Google and stats, just going from memory is that the best team we had under Rafa was last seasons one when Torres was fit. I think Riera has improved the team this season, but the absence of Torres has more than compensated I think (although the emergence of Gerrard as potentially the best player in the World has made it a very close call). That team in my opinion would have gone much closer than 11 points off the top if a couple of things had been done differently (and no prizes for guessing what I think those were ) but whatever, that was the best one for me.
The season before we had a very good team too, the one with Crouch up top which won the FA Cup. As I remember we won the FA Cup that season, beating a good Manc side en route, and finished strongly in the league to get within 9 points or so. The league was already won (by the Mancs I think), so there was an element of running on through beaten horses, but equally pro-rotationalists could argue that it was "delayed gazelle" in action. I think that team was plenty good enough to mount a title challenge as well given a methodology rethink, although not as good as the team the following season with Torres up front.
So we can assume from all that, that according to my warped logic, if Torres had been fit this season, this team would be the best one that Rafa has put together. That's cool, because that's exactly what I think. Also we've slightly tweaked the philosophy and lo and behold, we're top of the league. What if though (and here's the rub) it still isn't enough? What if Torres comes back, starts banging the goals in and we still finish adrift of the Mancs?
I know there's a lot of what ifs there, but to me this is the nub.......
Is it enough to gradually improve season on season? Is it enough to add a player here and a player there, to wait on Gerrard getting better and better? Is it the case (and I personally think it probably is) that you'd need in a transfer window to buy a 20 million pound striker who actually improves the team (or indeed one who sometimes plays in it) and a fullback for 7 million quid who is at least quite good?
The thing is the Mancs will keep buying and will keep winning league titles. Can we catch them step by step, or do we need to do things differently?
bigmick wrote:They spend big, so do we. They spend bigger, so therefore by definition we have to spend better.
Bad Bob wrote:bigmick wrote:They spend big, so do we. They spend bigger, so therefore by definition we have to spend better.
This is the part that's starting to concern me, TBPH. I'm very pleased we're where we are this season and, like you, I still think this season will still be a very important step forward for us even if we don't quite make it to the end of the season on top (assuming we don't fall away badly etc.). Looking forward, though, I can't help but wonder about Rafa's recent decision making in the transfer market and what that might mean for the possibility of outflanking the Mancs, Chelsea and other well-financed competitors. As you've said, Mick, one of the benefits of being top of the table is not having our recent transfers very carefully scrutinized. But, there's plenty there to raise an eyebrow. Dossena is clearly a major waste of good money--doubly so when you consider that we sold, in Riise, a player who (if nothing else) could be relied on to stay fit and compete for the shirt. In effect, we've brought in a leftback who's not up to the required standard, while relying on a lad who has a trouble staying fit. Thankfully the maturation of Insua has softened that blow a little.
The Keane transfer has been debated many times over from many different angles so I won't rehash here. I do find it curious, however, that--regardless of whether you rate him or not--he's been bought by a team that predominantly plays a system he doesn't suit. We achieved our best run of results in the run-in last season largely (though not exclusively) playing a 4-4-1-1 with Gerrard in the free role behind Torres. Rafa's brief early-season flirtation with 4-4-2 aside, I think we were always odds on to play this way this season. Clearly, when we do play this way, Rafa doesn't exactly rate/trust/relish Keane in the role of either the lone striker or the lad in the hole just behind. So why then did we use up a significant chunk of the transfer kitty on Keane? A puzzling decision in hindsight that grows harder to fathom the more time Keane sits on his duff in the stands each week.
Degen's been discussed a little of late and, on paper, perhaps he's not a bad shout. A free transfer for a young lad who likes to get forward and who was always going to be understudy to Arbeloa. Still, he seems to have had a bit of a rep as a sicknote and nothing we've seen so far has changed that (quite the opposite...). And, again, this is compounded by the fact that we moved Finnan on, meaning that we've played the majority of the season hoping that our one reliable, specialist RB doesn't get hurt. And of course he has. Some will say we haven't suffered with Carra filling in but I wonder if we've sacrificed some of our attacking impetus down the right flank with him moved over...particularly against Stoke and their park the bus approach. Such are the matches when a fullback with attacking skill are needed.
The signing of Cavalieri is not that big a concern for me, TBPH, because Itandje proved himself very replaceable last season. Some will wish we went for a vet prem keeper but who knows what kind of fee/wages that would take. Anyway, weren't we turned down by someone who didn't fancy being Reina's understudy.
So, the only standout transfer is Riera. On the other side of the equation, you had Rafa looking to sell Alonso which, with each passing game, looks more and more of a mistake. At best, bringing Barry in in place of Alonso was a sideways step and at worse, a step down in quality. Not exactly the kind of transfer business title challengers should be engaging in, IMO. Now we've got reports of Agger nearing the exit. Granted, you can't let a player hold the club to ransom--particularly if his form has dropped, which it has. Alternatively, it seems like a very, very bad idea to sell a central defender with good and, for our squad, unique qualities in the midst of a title challenge, whatever the economics say about the matter. We might get more money for him now but that will be cold comfort if we lose two CBs at a crucial moment in the season and need to draft Arbeloa or this Kelly kid into central defense.
This is turned into a bit of a book so I'll just wind up by saying that, in a nutshell, I have some growing concerns about Rafa's ability to "buy better" in the transfer market. If we're to progress and become perennial challengers for the title, we need to be more or less spot on in the transfer market, particularly when we lack the broad pool of existing talent in the squad that the Mancs and Chelsea can boast. Of late, Rafa has been far too hit and miss with his transfers and that could cost us dearly.
bigmick wrote:Good post that Bob. It's still worth considering though that despite a dodgy summer in the transfer market, there's no getting away from the fact (at least I don't think there is) that we would have improved as a team this season by a fair bit if Torres had stayed fit. In fact arguably, we have anyway.
Chief amongst the reasons for the improvement IMHO are the emergence of Gerrard as a true World beating talent, Kuyts early form on the right (particularly his goals which unfortunately have dried up a bit), the aquisition of Riera and the significant reduction in rotation at the start of the season.
That 27 mill we spunked on keane and Dossena though could really have made a difference. Perhaps if Torres had been fit it wouldn't have mattered we'd be clear by now anyway, or perhaps now he's back we'll win it anyhow, who knows?
bigmick wrote:I got to thinking while we were discussing the "same number of points as last season" stat (which now appears to have been disproven) about progress over Rafa's period as manager.
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