Liverpool FC Forum

[Penguins]

Anyone who believes that there will be 300 million ready to invest in the summer is deluded....

[Eagle]

When you look at how much PL clubs make profit per year, I cannot understand why it’s the trend right now to buy PL teams if you are mega rich. There must be something else we are not seeing. I see going from 300 million to 3 billion as a reason why but Liverpool was an exception, but a team like Chelsea selling for 3 billion…. and not state funded or a superfan? Seems dodgy!

Football clubs generally don't turn over a profit for their owners and while the aim is to break even many are actually loss generating. You do have some owners like the Glazers and Kroenke who take a dividend. And in the Glazers case, revenue Man Utd generate goes to paying the loan that was used to buy the club (pretty outrageous). Below is from FSG CEO Sam Kennedy and explains their model and why if you're not a country engaged in sports washing why you would invest in a football club.

Chelsea is a strange one. They've been bought out by a consortium of investors led by a private equity firm. But they certainly haven't acted like one since they took charge. They've been brash and reckless and nothing about their behaviour so far suggests they are working for a return on investment. They've been acting like an oil state with money to burn or a drug lord with money to wash. I do wonder who the other investors in the consortium are.

PL clubs now have a lot of American owners and I think there will be an attempt in the next few years to change the way TV rights work to make them more profitable (global pay per view, clubs selling their own games, etc). I'm guessing that's where the attraction is for investors. They probably see the PL and think it's a dated model and they can increase global TV right revenue significantly and subsequently increase the value of the clubs they are buying.

Kennedy said: "We are a platform company designed to win championships with the teams and clubs it owns and operates. That's first and foremost because the business flows and the value creation flows from winning. That is our north star, winning championships and being involved in markets that have incredibly avid fan bases that care deeply about their teams.

"We have a revenue first mentality here where we are trying to generate as much revenue as possible from every source, and then we have been re-investing it into the product on the field and into the venues in which we occupy.

"Fenway Sports Group as a company has great revenues and growth and profitability, but the individual sports team assets have years that are up and down, that are break-even, that are cash losses, and I think it takes a really special type of investor, someone who really has gone into the space and who understands the space to see where the value creation comes from. It's not a quarterly look at EBITDA or cash flow, it's really building long-term equity value through investing those revenues back into the product."

[kazza]

Daniel Levy has just said exactly what Liverpool are thinking ahead of UEFA transfer rule change
Spurs chairman Levy believes that new UEFA rules will impact spending power of even the biggest clubs

ByDave Powell
15:04, 20 APR 2023

When it comes to transfer spend, Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur are more closely entwined with each other than they are with the rest of the so-called ‘big six’.

The ownership of both clubs has sought to build infrastructure to deliver value and support investment into the team and, ultimately, the chances of succeeding on the pitch.

Where the spending of their rivals on transfer fees has considerably outpaced their own, a change of approach has not been enforced despite some pressure from fans keen to ensure that their clubs don’t get left behind and taken out of the trophy equation.


For Liverpool under Fenway Sports Group it is a model that has had success, although the hiring of Jurgen Klopp as manager in 2016 was a pivotal moment in its progression. The fact that FSG have not had to deal with the tumult that comes with the chopping and changing of managers due to Klopp’s stellar work in rebuilding the club has meant that, until this season at least, the model was seen to still be functioning as intended.


Where FSG invested in a redeveloping Anfield into a world class venue, Spurs’ ownership of ENIC and Daniel Levy put their future hopes in the delivery of the state of the art £1bn Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, a development that they feel will provide the revenue opportunity for the club to continue to grow and invest into on-pitch success.

Liverpool and Spurs are the most obvious examples of clubs being run with a business-minded approach to underpin success, which is ultimately what the clubs exist to strive to achieve. But achieving that has become harder and harder in recent years with both clubs outspent heavily in the transfer market by the likes of Manchester City, Manchester United and Chelsea.

Chelsea, having been taken over by Todd Boehly and Clearlake Capital last year, have taken things to a new level in recent times, with over £500m spent across two transfer windows and the club handing out seven, eight and nine years deals to players in a bid to drive down amortisation costs on the balance sheet (the accounting of transfers through transfer fee divided by length of contract).

With Manchester City having been landed with over 100 charges of alleged breaches of profit and sustainability rules by the Premier League, and UEFA keeping a watchful eye on Chelsea, changing their own rules from this summer to cap contract lengths at five years, there is a push to try and tackle the spending of major European football, predominantly in the Premier League.

Liverpool and Spurs are no paupers, the Reds spent the second highest sum on wages in 2021/22 (£366m) due to bonus payments coming into play, but when it comes to how willing the owners are to accept heavy losses to fund transfer spend, their approach differs from some other ownership groups.

Spurs chairman Levy and FSG principal John W. Henry will undoubtedly be pleased with the change in regulations that will arrive this summer from UEFA, where a newly introduced cost control rule will restrict spending on player and coach wages, transfers, and agent fees to 70 per cent of club revenues. Rules will permit 90 per cent in the first year, the figure reaching 70 per cent by year three.

Levy believes that the new regulations will be impactful when it comes to the spending in the Premier League, regardless of who is the owner of the football club.

Addressing questions during an appearance at the Cambridge Union, Levy said: “There are new rules coming into effect this season, UEFA rules where sustainability is going to become much more paramount in people’s minds.

“You will be limited to the amount that you can spend on wages and transfer fees, effectively the amortisation element, as a percentage of your total turnover. It is starting off at 90 per cent and after three years it is going down to 70 per cent.

“The impact of that is effectively some form of wage control. So I think that even though clubs have been spending very heavily, and you talk about someone like Chelsea, now the new rules come into effect this summer I think you’ll find that regardless of who is the owner it is going to have quite an impact on the financing of football.”

Liverpool principal owner Henry has long been an advocate of running the club in a sustainable manner, something that has had a knock on effect with regards to transfer spend that has been viewed less than favourably by some Reds fans, particularly during a season of struggle for Liverpool such as they are enduring this campaign.

During an exclusive interview with the ECHO last month, Henry said: “We continue building at Liverpool Football Club in a responsible manner.

“We’ve seen many football clubs go down unsustainable paths. We have and will continue to focus our attention on investing wisely in the transfer market and we remain incredibly proud of our squad.

“At the same time we continue investing in our training facilities, our main stand and currently the Anfield Road stand. These are all physical reflections of our resolve and how very seriously Fenway Sports Group takes its responsibilities for this great club.”

[kazza]

https://www.sportbible.com/football/psg-messi-wage-transfer-revenue-city-united-barcelona-594867-20230601?source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR070a0GGblq1oobzL5cTObTGiSV7HitWb3SzHkbMkjY9V2q3GUpbr12b5M

We are Fifth but some real suspicious numbers

[Eagle]

The deal is thought to be worth between $100million (£82m) and $200m (£164m) and based on Forbes’ $5.3billion (£4.3bn) valuation of Liverpool, that represents a minority investment of between 1.9 per cent and 3.8 per cent. Imagine the FSG investors who are diluting their shares will get something but it's good news that it's also being used to pay down money owed to the bank.

FSG announces strategic minority investment in LFC from Dynasty Equity

Fenway Sports Group has today announced that global sports investment firm Dynasty Equity has completed a strategic common equity minority investment in Liverpool FC.

“Our long-term commitment to Liverpool remains as strong as ever,” said FSG president Mike Gordon. “We have always said that if there is an investment partner that is right for Liverpool then we would pursue the opportunity to help ensure the club’s long-term financial resiliency and future growth.

“We look forward to building upon the long-standing relationship with Dynasty to further strengthen the club’s financial position and sustain our ambitions for continued success on and off the pitch.”

The minority investment will primarily be used to pay down bank debt incurred during the COVID-19 pandemic and capital expenses made to enhance Anfield, build the AXA Training Centre, repurchase Melwood training ground and, most recently, acquisitions during the summer transfer window.

Longer term, the partnership between Dynasty and FSG will also explore further growth opportunities for Liverpool FC.

“We are honoured to partner with FSG and support the remarkable legacy of Liverpool in a strategic partnership that builds upon mutual respect and deep relationships among our respective teams,” said Dynasty executive chairman Jonathan M. Nelson.

Dynasty’s chief executive officer, K. Don Cornwell, added: “Liverpool is one of the most iconic football clubs in the world with a passionate fanbase and significant global reach. Dynasty is privileged to support the club and work alongside FSG to execute on the tremendous growth opportunities ahead.”

https://www.liverpoolfc.com/news/fsg-an ... sty-equity

[Reg]

It also means that if they'd sold Mo for £250 million they wouldn't have needed to sell a share in the company. FSG are reliable people.

[kazza]

Liverpool announce £9m loss for 2022-23 season
Liverpool made a pre-tax loss of £9m last season as increased commercial income did not offset a drop in money made from media and matchday revenues.
The previous 12 months had produced a small profit of £7.5m.
Liverpool's biggest income stream in 2022-23 was the £272m, up £25m, generated from off-field income, but a last-16 Champions League exit a year after reaching the final meant television money dropped by £19m to £242m.
Matchday revenue also fell by £7m due to fewer games being played across last season after the previous campaign when the club played in every fixture - a total of 63 - they were eligible for, winning both domestic cups and reaching the Champions League final.
While overall revenue remained the same at £594m, increasing costs are cutting into the balance sheet with staff expenses having increased 79 per cent since 2018, up from £208m six years ago to £373m for the year ending May 2023.
The wage bill in this period alone rose £7m to £373m.
Administrative expenses for that same period have increased by 70 percent from £320m to £562m, while utility costs have doubled from two years ago while rising inflation has driven up other costs.
"Operating this great club in a financially sustainable manner and in accordance with football's governing principles has been our priority since FSG [Fenway Sports Group] acquired LFC in 2010," said managing director Andy Hughes.
"Despite the significant growing costs of football, the success of our commercial operations demonstrates the strength of our underlying financial position so we can continue to operate sustainably while competing at the highest levels of football.
"While these financial results are a moment in time on our journey, what remains constant is the growing global appeal of the club and, thanks to our amazing support, LFC continues to be the most globally followed club in the Premier League."
Matchday revenue will increase after the new Anfield Road stand was fully opened earlier this month, taking Anfield's attendance to 61,000.
"Matchday revenue is a hugely important part of our overall financial sustainability model," added Hughes.
During the reporting period Liverpool signed Darwin Nunez, Cody Gakpo, Calvin Ramsay and youth team goalkeeper Kornel Misciur for a combined initial fee of £105m, but offloaded Sadio Mane, Divock Origi, Takumi Minamino and Neco Williams.
There were also significant contract renewals for Mohamed Salah - who became the highest earner in the club's history with a reported £300,000-a-week deal - Joe Gomez, Harvey Elliott, Curtis Jones, Jarell Quansah, Stefan Bajcetic and Ben
Doak.

[bunglemark2]

Admin Expenses exploded, curious about the detail on this

[kazza]

https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11669/13091198/liverpool-michael-edwards-return-set-to-be-confirmed-with-ex-bournemouth-man-richard-hughes-also-set-to-join

https://anfieldwatch.co.uk/david-ornstein-shares-huge-update-regarding-michael-edwards-liverpool-return/?fbclid=IwAR0Ceu02VC9FQw1UrtGI_51ZwCQFH2Uwxd67Lnm1Zb0ehpz7e8gW0RCIw7o

[7_Kewell]

https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11669/13091198/liverpool-michael-edwards-return-set-to-be-confirmed-with-ex-bournemouth-man-richard-hughes-also-set-to-join

https://anfieldwatch.co.uk/david-ornstein-shares-huge-update-regarding-michael-edwards-liverpool-return/?fbclid=IwAR0Ceu02VC9FQw1UrtGI_51ZwCQFH2Uwxd67Lnm1Zb0ehpz7e8gW0RCIw7o

Huge news, if true.

Wonder if it'll influence Klopp's decision to go?

[kazza]

https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11669/13091198/liverpool-michael-edwards-return-set-to-be-confirmed-with-ex-bournemouth-man-richard-hughes-also-set-to-join

https://anfieldwatch.co.uk/david-ornstein-shares-huge-update-regarding-michael-edwards-liverpool-return/?fbclid=IwAR0Ceu02VC9FQw1UrtGI_51ZwCQFH2Uwxd67Lnm1Zb0ehpz7e8gW0RCIw7o

Huge news, if true.

Wonder if it'll influence Klopp's decision to go?

I’m thinking that maybe Klopp was the reason he left.

[damjan193]

Michael Edwards announced as CEO of Football (new position higher than Sporting Director). Amazing news that they brought him back but we'll see what his position means for how the club functions.

Richard Hughes not yet officially announced as sporting director but likely to happen soon.

[7_Kewell]

Excellent news.

[kazza]

Inside story of Liverpool FC transfers under Jurgen Klopp and Brendan Rodgers

As Liverpool’s director of research for over a decade, Ian Graham was a key person in the background as the Reds won every trophy possible under Jurgen Klopp.
Graham and his team of data analysts played a role in the appointment of Klopp, plus key signings like Sadio Mane, Mo Salah, Andy Robertson, Joel Matip and plenty more.
Initially appointed by Michael Edwardsin 2012 after they had worked together at Tottenham, Graham left Liverpool in 2023 and set up an analytics consultancy firm, Ludonautics, with Edwards.

Edwards, of course, has now returned as Fenway Sports Group’s ‘chief executive of football’ and it’s interesting to learn that despite the media perception of Edwards as being the ‘data guy’ at Liverpool, the former Portsmouth player was in fact initially sceptical of Graham’s data-led approach.
“Michael had that mix of his football background, plus he’s a smart guy,” explains Graham in an exclusive chat with This Is Anfield where we discuss the early years under Brendan Rodgers and the so-called ‘transfer committee’ – which Graham was an “unofficial” member of, through to the signings that transformed the club under Klopp, plus the ones that got away.
“[Edwards] understood our approach and the sort of numbers we were coming up with like possession value, goal probability, and so on. He intuitively understood it. So he took our numbers as like a benchmark.”

We speak to Graham ahead of the launch of his new book, sharing stories from his time at Anfield but also on the wider data and analytics approach in football. It is, to say the least, an interesting read.

However, Graham is quick to point out “the book title, ‘How to Win the Premier League‘ is a little bit tongue in cheek! I hope I make it clear in the book that it wasn’t only the data.
“The data doesn’t make any difference at all unless you’ve got a great manager, a great sporting director, a great scouting department to go and do all of the other work that’s absolutely necessary for success.”
“A disastrous start under Rodgers…”

In the early years, that recipe for success was not there. The club’s manager was not aligned with the rest of the recruitment team.
Being appointed to his role on the very day that Damien Comolli left the club, Graham’s first summer was working alongside Brendan Rodgers – who had decided he didn’t exactly want the input of the data and analytics.
In his book, Graham details how Rodgers pushed to sign players like Joe Allen and Fabio Borini – when the analysts had suggested Daniel Sturridge instead (a player the club went on to sign six months later).
Rodgers also insisted on signing Christian Benteke, despite Graham practically “begging” FSG not to. Rodgers was so obsessed with the Aston Villa striker he fought to sign him for three consecutive summers, twice Graham was successful in persuading the club not to sign the Belgian.

“Benteke was the the epitome of that kind of misunderstanding of style,” explains Graham, whose work includes profiling and categorising players according to the type of player they are – not all centre-forwards are the same!
“Benteke in the right system, in a system that plays to his strengths, is a very effective striker. Our problem was Liverpool didn’t play that system.
“When both Brendan and I joined the club, Brendan’s number one priority was to get rid of Andy Carroll – one player that we’d had in the past who did play in that style.”

Diego Costa was the striker Graham would have preferred and is one of the ‘ones that got away’ when there was a chance to acquire him from Atletico Madrid in the summer of 2013.
“Can you imagine the forward line of Luis Suarez and Diego Costa? I’m not sure Liverpool would be anyone’s second team with that pair of centre forwards!”
How Coutinho was signed… instead of Tom Ince!


We also, almost quite comically, learn how Rodgers pushed for the signing of Thomas Ince, but only Blackpool changing the terms of the deal meant that Philippe Coutinho was signed instead.
“Spurs had played against Inter when both me and Michael [Edwards] were working at Spurs and Michael thought Coutinho was the best player for Inter, and it was an Inter side that had Wesley Sneijder and Samuel Eto’o so that’s quite good for a 20-year-old, small Brazilian guy to be compared favourably to those superstars.”
Usually Liverpool seek to sign players with certain thresholds for data analysis, which can depend on not just the amount of data but also the quality of the data, such as whether the data includes off the ball actions.
“The data looked good,” says Graham of Coutinho “[but] it was a low number of minutes. The more evidence we’ve got about players, the better; the more minutes, the better. So it was a case of ‘this player looks really good but it’s not quite the minutes to say he’s guaranteed to make a difference to Liverpool’. And that’s where scouting comes in.
“Our scouting team was also heavily in favour of signing Coutinho. Barry (Hunter, chief scout) especially; he loves the Brazilian playmaker as much as I do and as much as Brendan does.
“It really showed what could happen if we were all on the same page, if we all engaged in a process of trying to find the best players that we all agree are the best players for the club.”
Coutinho’s story was a rare one under Rodgers, though, so it was a new opportunity when the former Swansea boss was sacked in 2015.

Jurgen arrives – he’s not enthusiastic about statistics!

Graham was told by FSG that Rodgers would be leaving and his team worked on analysing the potential candidates for the next Liverpool manager.
Their analysis was clear: Klopp’s disappointing final season at Dortmund was not reflective of the data and this message was delivered to FSG – and later to Klopp in Graham’s first meeting with the German.
“I don’t like to see anyone get the sack, but the process just wasn’t working at Liverpool,” says Graham. “So it was a chance to see was the process going to work?
“It meant the pressure was on, the fact that Fenway had decided to keep the rest of the transfer committee on the books and make the change in the manager role. But then that pressure becomes a lot less when Klopp’s available to bring in as manager.
“From Jurgen, his point of view, it was just as advertised as an efficient way of identifying players. He was promised he could have the final say on which players arrive, which players left, which is all he wanted.”
One of those players that arrived was Salah, with Klopp later admitting that Edwards and chief scouts Dave Fallows and Barry Hunter were “really in my ear and were on it: ‘Come on, come on, Mo Salah, he’s the solution!”


“When you have 20 players on the table, different players, it’s difficult to make an early decision,” said Klopp. “But we all were convinced about it so could make the early decision so we could really get him.”
Salah’s signing was one which perfectly aligned the analysis and the scouting. Graham and his team though rarely interacted with Klopp on transfer discussions, that was left to Edwards, who would sit with Klopp and watch videos of transfer targets.
“When we went down to a shortlist, those shortlisted players had already gone through the data process,” explains Graham. “How that was presented to Jurgen would be more like a discussion with Michael as they were watching videos of the player to say ‘see how many shots Mo’s getting from wide, that’s much more productive than your typical wide forward would be’.
“That would all be informed by the data but it comes through as the story from the video analysis rather than Jurgen saying ‘ah I see Mo is number one in Italy for expected goals’ – that wasn’t how it worked!”

In Graham’s own words, Klopp was not excited or enthusiastic about statistics of players.

“Being the manager of Liverpool, or manager of any football club, is a very stressful and time consuming process, you’ve just got better things to do than look at my statistical analytics,” he says, perhaps humbly.
“I had very few meetings directly with Jurgen. Jurgen is very smart guy, he’s got an intuitive understanding of the sort of work that we do, but he’s not particularly fascinated by statistics.
“And if you wanted to sort of present the player to him, we tried a couple of times showing him the statistics of players but it just didn’t excite him or cause him to be enthusiastic in any way whatsoever.
“So the way my department worked was as a service provider, if you like, to other departments, to offer our insights and our recommendations, which go through the scouting department and through Michael Edwards in terms of recruitment, through the video analysis team, in terms of the post-match analysis or opposition analysis, through the medical department for sport science issues and so on.”
‘Informal discussions’ with FSG over a return

Graham’s departure from Liverpool, officially in summer 2023, arrived after Edwards (2022), and Julian Ward (2023) also departed the club, and sparked some concern that this was a sign that Liverpool’s approach as a data-driven club was being left behind.
“I’d achieved what I wanted to achieve,” insists Graham when explaining his departure.
“For the rest of the [analysis] team it was a good opportunity. Will Spearman, who I hired back in 2018, he’s now got my old role and everyone else has changed changed their roles a little bit as well.”
Graham resigned a year after Edwards left the club, something he admits was a surprise at the time: “And then a year later things were changing at the club as well with all of this, with all of those senior leadership changes, but it was just time for a change [personally].”
Edwards and Ward, along with David Woodfine (formerly director of loan management who also left in 2023) have now all been re-appointed by FSG; Edwards as FSG’s CEO of Football; Ward as FSG’s Technical Director, and Woodfine as Liverpool’s assistant sporting director.
Fenway also brought in Hans Leitert, formerly a goalkeeping consultant for LFC, to work for FSG as their head of global goalkeeping.
So did FSG approach Graham on also returning?
“I had some informal discussions,” admits Graham. “But I think after being so close to the club and so involved in that day-to-day business, I really wanted to do something else.
“My new business, which is an analytics consultancy, it’s kind of the best of both worlds, we work very closely with clubs, give them good advice about recruitment and how to use data in football but I’m not at risk; getting a signing over the line or if the team plays badly for three games in a row.
“I was approached by a couple of Premier League clubs with ‘can you repeat the trick for us, can you do what you did for Liverpool’ and I wasn’t interested in doing the same again with a club that I cared less about than with Liverpool.”
While Graham won’t be involved, the hope for Liverpool supporters and FSG now is that Edwards and the new structure can oversee a new era for the club and indeed repeat the trick again.

[bunglemark2]

Inside story of Liverpool FC transfers under Jurgen Klopp and Brendan Rodgers

As Liverpool’s director of research for over a decade, Ian Graham was a key person in the background as the Reds won every trophy possible under Jurgen Klopp.
Graham and his team of data analysts played a role in the appointment of Klopp, plus key signings like Sadio Mane, Mo Salah, Andy Robertson, Joel Matip and plenty more.
Initially appointed by Michael Edwardsin 2012 after they had worked together at Tottenham, Graham left Liverpool in 2023 and set up an analytics consultancy firm, Ludonautics, with Edwards.

Edwards, of course, has now returned as Fenway Sports Group’s ‘chief executive of football’ and it’s interesting to learn that despite the media perception of Edwards as being the ‘data guy’ at Liverpool, the former Portsmouth player was in fact initially sceptical of Graham’s data-led approach.
“Michael had that mix of his football background, plus he’s a smart guy,” explains Graham in an exclusive chat with This Is Anfield where we discuss the early years under Brendan Rodgers and the so-called ‘transfer committee’ – which Graham was an “unofficial” member of, through to the signings that transformed the club under Klopp, plus the ones that got away.
“[Edwards] understood our approach and the sort of numbers we were coming up with like possession value, goal probability, and so on. He intuitively understood it. So he took our numbers as like a benchmark.”

We speak to Graham ahead of the launch of his new book, sharing stories from his time at Anfield but also on the wider data and analytics approach in football. It is, to say the least, an interesting read.

However, Graham is quick to point out “the book title, ‘How to Win the Premier League‘ is a little bit tongue in cheek! I hope I make it clear in the book that it wasn’t only the data.
“The data doesn’t make any difference at all unless you’ve got a great manager, a great sporting director, a great scouting department to go and do all of the other work that’s absolutely necessary for success.”
“A disastrous start under Rodgers…”

In the early years, that recipe for success was not there. The club’s manager was not aligned with the rest of the recruitment team.
Being appointed to his role on the very day that Damien Comolli left the club, Graham’s first summer was working alongside Brendan Rodgers – who had decided he didn’t exactly want the input of the data and analytics.
In his book, Graham details how Rodgers pushed to sign players like Joe Allen and Fabio Borini – when the analysts had suggested Daniel Sturridge instead (a player the club went on to sign six months later).
Rodgers also insisted on signing Christian Benteke, despite Graham practically “begging” FSG not to. Rodgers was so obsessed with the Aston Villa striker he fought to sign him for three consecutive summers, twice Graham was successful in persuading the club not to sign the Belgian.

“Benteke was the the epitome of that kind of misunderstanding of style,” explains Graham, whose work includes profiling and categorising players according to the type of player they are – not all centre-forwards are the same!
“Benteke in the right system, in a system that plays to his strengths, is a very effective striker. Our problem was Liverpool didn’t play that system.
“When both Brendan and I joined the club, Brendan’s number one priority was to get rid of Andy Carroll – one player that we’d had in the past who did play in that style.”

Diego Costa was the striker Graham would have preferred and is one of the ‘ones that got away’ when there was a chance to acquire him from Atletico Madrid in the summer of 2013.
“Can you imagine the forward line of Luis Suarez and Diego Costa? I’m not sure Liverpool would be anyone’s second team with that pair of centre forwards!”
How Coutinho was signed… instead of Tom Ince!


We also, almost quite comically, learn how Rodgers pushed for the signing of Thomas Ince, but only Blackpool changing the terms of the deal meant that Philippe Coutinho was signed instead.
“Spurs had played against Inter when both me and Michael [Edwards] were working at Spurs and Michael thought Coutinho was the best player for Inter, and it was an Inter side that had Wesley Sneijder and Samuel Eto’o so that’s quite good for a 20-year-old, small Brazilian guy to be compared favourably to those superstars.”
Usually Liverpool seek to sign players with certain thresholds for data analysis, which can depend on not just the amount of data but also the quality of the data, such as whether the data includes off the ball actions.
“The data looked good,” says Graham of Coutinho “[but] it was a low number of minutes. The more evidence we’ve got about players, the better; the more minutes, the better. So it was a case of ‘this player looks really good but it’s not quite the minutes to say he’s guaranteed to make a difference to Liverpool’. And that’s where scouting comes in.
“Our scouting team was also heavily in favour of signing Coutinho. Barry (Hunter, chief scout) especially; he loves the Brazilian playmaker as much as I do and as much as Brendan does.
“It really showed what could happen if we were all on the same page, if we all engaged in a process of trying to find the best players that we all agree are the best players for the club.”
Coutinho’s story was a rare one under Rodgers, though, so it was a new opportunity when the former Swansea boss was sacked in 2015.

Jurgen arrives – he’s not enthusiastic about statistics!

Graham was told by FSG that Rodgers would be leaving and his team worked on analysing the potential candidates for the next Liverpool manager.
Their analysis was clear: Klopp’s disappointing final season at Dortmund was not reflective of the data and this message was delivered to FSG – and later to Klopp in Graham’s first meeting with the German.
“I don’t like to see anyone get the sack, but the process just wasn’t working at Liverpool,” says Graham. “So it was a chance to see was the process going to work?
“It meant the pressure was on, the fact that Fenway had decided to keep the rest of the transfer committee on the books and make the change in the manager role. But then that pressure becomes a lot less when Klopp’s available to bring in as manager.
“From Jurgen, his point of view, it was just as advertised as an efficient way of identifying players. He was promised he could have the final say on which players arrive, which players left, which is all he wanted.”
One of those players that arrived was Salah, with Klopp later admitting that Edwards and chief scouts Dave Fallows and Barry Hunter were “really in my ear and were on it: ‘Come on, come on, Mo Salah, he’s the solution!”


“When you have 20 players on the table, different players, it’s difficult to make an early decision,” said Klopp. “But we all were convinced about it so could make the early decision so we could really get him.”
Salah’s signing was one which perfectly aligned the analysis and the scouting. Graham and his team though rarely interacted with Klopp on transfer discussions, that was left to Edwards, who would sit with Klopp and watch videos of transfer targets.
“When we went down to a shortlist, those shortlisted players had already gone through the data process,” explains Graham. “How that was presented to Jurgen would be more like a discussion with Michael as they were watching videos of the player to say ‘see how many shots Mo’s getting from wide, that’s much more productive than your typical wide forward would be’.
“That would all be informed by the data but it comes through as the story from the video analysis rather than Jurgen saying ‘ah I see Mo is number one in Italy for expected goals’ – that wasn’t how it worked!”

In Graham’s own words, Klopp was not excited or enthusiastic about statistics of players.

“Being the manager of Liverpool, or manager of any football club, is a very stressful and time consuming process, you’ve just got better things to do than look at my statistical analytics,” he says, perhaps humbly.
“I had very few meetings directly with Jurgen. Jurgen is very smart guy, he’s got an intuitive understanding of the sort of work that we do, but he’s not particularly fascinated by statistics.
“And if you wanted to sort of present the player to him, we tried a couple of times showing him the statistics of players but it just didn’t excite him or cause him to be enthusiastic in any way whatsoever.
“So the way my department worked was as a service provider, if you like, to other departments, to offer our insights and our recommendations, which go through the scouting department and through Michael Edwards in terms of recruitment, through the video analysis team, in terms of the post-match analysis or opposition analysis, through the medical department for sport science issues and so on.”
‘Informal discussions’ with FSG over a return

Graham’s departure from Liverpool, officially in summer 2023, arrived after Edwards (2022), and Julian Ward (2023) also departed the club, and sparked some concern that this was a sign that Liverpool’s approach as a data-driven club was being left behind.
“I’d achieved what I wanted to achieve,” insists Graham when explaining his departure.
“For the rest of the [analysis] team it was a good opportunity. Will Spearman, who I hired back in 2018, he’s now got my old role and everyone else has changed changed their roles a little bit as well.”
Graham resigned a year after Edwards left the club, something he admits was a surprise at the time: “And then a year later things were changing at the club as well with all of this, with all of those senior leadership changes, but it was just time for a change [personally].”
Edwards and Ward, along with David Woodfine (formerly director of loan management who also left in 2023) have now all been re-appointed by FSG; Edwards as FSG’s CEO of Football; Ward as FSG’s Technical Director, and Woodfine as Liverpool’s assistant sporting director.
Fenway also brought in Hans Leitert, formerly a goalkeeping consultant for LFC, to work for FSG as their head of global goalkeeping.
So did FSG approach Graham on also returning?
“I had some informal discussions,” admits Graham. “But I think after being so close to the club and so involved in that day-to-day business, I really wanted to do something else.
“My new business, which is an analytics consultancy, it’s kind of the best of both worlds, we work very closely with clubs, give them good advice about recruitment and how to use data in football but I’m not at risk; getting a signing over the line or if the team plays badly for three games in a row.
“I was approached by a couple of Premier League clubs with ‘can you repeat the trick for us, can you do what you did for Liverpool’ and I wasn’t interested in doing the same again with a club that I cared less about than with Liverpool.”
While Graham won’t be involved, the hope for Liverpool supporters and FSG now is that Edwards and the new structure can oversee a new era for the club and indeed repeat the trick again.

Can you summarise please - I don't have 2 days to read that