Liverpool FC Forum

[bigmick]

Not really "Micks" because I nicked the market off Betfair, but anyway. The drill is of course that the odds compilers atempt to even up the thing by giving teams a start against their favourite. It's an interesting one (at least I think it is anyway) as it gives you an idea of what they consider a benchmark outcome for the season for us, and also because it gives an opportunity for people to put their necks on the block and talk about football, maybe even make a prediction or two.

Anyway, at Betfair they've got the Mancs as favourites and have them giving everyone a varying degree of start. the numbers are as follows:

Chelsea + 2 points.
Liverpool + 3
Arsenal + 8
Man City + 13
Spurs + 19
Everton + 24
Villa + 27
Fulham + 34
West Ham + 35
Sunderland + 38
Blackburn + 40
Bolton + 40
Porstmouth + 41
Wigan + 43
Stoke + 44
Wolves + 48
Hull + 48
Birmingham + 50
Burnley + 52


So what do you reckon, other than I've got too much time on my hands    My take is that Villa have a huge start as they've made a couple of decent signing and look like making a couple more (apparently they're in for Jenas and Bentley now).

My favourites though would be Sunderland. I really think they've nicked Darren Bent and I think he'll score plenty of goals, and I think Cattermole will improve them a lot as well (also stolen at 6 million). They've also signed some French bloke who I haven't heard of for 5 million, and have picked up Frazier Campbell for 3.5 mill'. They still have Kenwyn Jones and the decent keeper, so I definately expect them to finish well ahead of the likes of Blackburn, Bolton and Portsmouth who they're grouped in with.

Pompey must surely finish bottom of the handicap and most likely the league as well.


As for us, a three point start on the Mancs and a one point start on Chelsea. Just shows the bookies think it will be a very tight season at the top, and I agree with them. Man City though really ought to be able to go close to winning the handicap against the big four at least with a 13 point start.

It certainly should be interesting this season anyway, I can't remember ever looking forward to one strarting so much.

[Judge]

no you havent too much time on yer hands just you use that time for toilet visits

[ConnO'var]

Mick,

If I was a betting man, I would steer well clear of the favourites.

The last 3 years, the premiership champions have amassed a total of 89, 87 and 90 points. While the 17th placed team scored 38, 36 and 35 points. Meaning if you were to pick the 4th best odds from the bottom.... in this case wolves/hull at 48, you'd end up with  86, 84, 83 points. So statistically speaking, the bookmakers have more or less got it right at the top and bottom end of the table.

I'd go for Villa too though the muppets at goodison look like a pretty good bet too.

[account deleted by request]

The two stand out bets for me would be Everton and Villa. I think we are a fifty-fifty bet with the 3 points start so we would still be a worthwhile saver bet.

I think Villa may kick on this season, while Everton could struggle if they sell Lescott and don't replace him with quality.

[andy_g]

if you add the handicaps to the final points total of all the surviving teams from last season it looks like this

Manchester United  90     90
Liverpool         86        89
Chelsea                  83        85
Arsenal                 72     80
Everton                 63     87
Aston Villa         62        89
Fulham                 53     87
Tottenham Hotspur 51        70
West Ham United 51        86
Manchester City  50        63
Wigan Athletic          45        87
Stoke City         45        89
Bolton Wanderers  41        81
Portsmouth          41        82
Blackburn Rovers 41        81
Sunderland          36        74
Hull City                 35        83

so the league table, not counting the newly promoted sides would look like this

man utd
liverpool
villa
stoke city
everton
fulham
wigan
west ham
chelsea
hull
portsmouth
bolton
blackburn
arsenal
sunderland
spurs
man city


we just lose out to the mancs again
stoke and villa get the other two champions league spots
everton remain in 5th place as they will for the rest of eternity
ancelotti, wenger and hughes are looking for new jobs, redknapp too probably

of course, all the wheelings and dealings and chopping and changing over the summer will render this a pointless excercise but it kept me amused for 10 minutes.

[Judge]

stoke in europe