Liverpool FC Forum

by **bigmick** » Sat Dec 05, 2009 9:30 pm

Staying out of the match thread and the other threads on which the usual stuff is happening for a second, I thought I'd have a quick look at where we are. This is the current league table:

1. Chelsea P15 PTS36
2. Man U 15 34
3. Arsenal 14 28
4. Spurs 14 26
5. Villa 15 26
6. Man City 14 25
7. Liverpool 15 24
8. Brmgham 15 21
9. Sundlnd 14 20

Now obviously it doesn't look too pretty, but it is early days yet. I'm assuming from here that the Mancs and Chelsea will fight it out at the top for a while and almost certainly finish in the top two, which means there are two other Champions League slots up for grabs. Birmingham although being very close to us at the moment I don't count as serious rivals, and even Sunderland who can get within a point of us if they win their next match, really ought to fall away before too long. This means we have a top seven to contend with, taking out Chelsea dn the Mancs that means we are competing with five other teams for two of the top four slots. Here's how the next few weeks pan out:

Arsenal: Liverpool (A), Burnley (A), Hull (H), Villa (H)

Spurs: Everton (A), Wolves (H), Man City (H), Blackburn (A)

Villa: Man Utd (A), Stoke (H), Arsenal (A)

Man City: Bolton (A), Spurs (A), Sunderland (H), Stoke (H)

Liverpool: Arsenal (H), Wigan (H), Portsmouth (A), Wolves (H)

Now looking at that, with the exception of the Arsenal game we have some fairly lenient fixtures compared to everyone else. If we were to beat Arsenal, then we must have a decent chance of winning all four I should think. That said, if you look at the table and the ficxtures, losing at Home to Arsenal could really put us in a bit of bother. It really is a massive game for us in terms of getting up into that top bracket of clubs.

A loss there would put us seven points behind Wengers men with them having played a game less. We wouldn't at that point be incapable of getting ahead of them, but obviously it would be difficult. What I think we should really try our best to avoid is the possibility of either Arsenal or Man City (the only two teams capable of doing it) cementing thrid place, meaning we only have one slot to go for. At this stage, the five way dogfight suits us and a defeat to Arsenal is unthinkable.

by **metalhead** » Sat Dec 05, 2009 9:33 pm

It doesn't look good, it really doesn't, but stats prove we do so much better at the second half of the season. We need pick up now, or it will be too late, I'm not confident about Arsenal at all now, I think we missed an opportunity today and we have Arsenal next and they have been better than us this season. However, hopefully Torres gets back and Rafa the Gaffa can let Aquilani play a part against Arsenal as we need some creativity in our side

by **bigmick** » Sat Dec 05, 2009 9:35 pm

metalhead wrote:It doesn't look good, it really doesn't, but stats prove we do so much better at the second half of the season.

Bit of an urban myth unfortunately mate. The stats actually prove (or at least they have in the past as I recall) that there is little difference between our second half of the season and our first normally.

Obviously it would be nice if this season was the exception to the rule.

by **Ben Patrick** » Sat Dec 05, 2009 9:38 pm

I think we will beat Arsenal.
And that will leave us right in the thick of it without actually hitting any form so far this season.
I am still really confident of getting into top 4, but clearly that will still to me be a major failing from what our ambitions where before the season started.

But you are right mick the Arsenal game is massive.
We need to play at a 100mph tempo and just stop them playing altogether.

by **metalhead** » Sat Dec 05, 2009 9:39 pm

bigmick wrote:
metalhead wrote:It doesn't look good, it really doesn't, but stats prove we do so much better at the second half of the season.

Bit of an urban myth unfortunately mate. The stats actually prove (or at least they have in the past as I recall) that there is little difference between our second half of the season and our first normally.

Obviously it would be nice if this season was the exception to the rule.

Hmm, I don't know mate, we always pick it up in the second half of the season, especially last year after the Madrid game. Well, except for 2004/05 ofcourse.

What I'm worried is that Tottenham go on a winning run, and we keep dropping points which will make it really difficult for us, plus Man city beat Chelsea today, which will also give them some boost. We beat Everton last week and we did not capitalize on this, it shows that we aren't capable of getting into a winning run now, as a side we aren't good enough, I fear that we won't end up in the top 4, unless drastic changes has to be made.

If we don't buy a quality backup striker in January, then God help us.

by **account deleted by request** » Sat Dec 05, 2009 9:45 pm

Last season from 15 games onwards (the mancs had only played 14)

P W D L F A GD Pt

1 Manchester United 24 20 2 2 42 14 +28 62
2 Liverpool 23 15 7 1 56 19 +37 52
3 Chelsea 23 15 5 3 35 18 +17 50
4 Arsenal 23 12 10 1 41 18 +23 46
5 Everton 23 11 8 4 35 15 +20 41
6 Aston Villa 23 10 7 6 32 32 0 37
7 Tottenham Hotspur 23 10 6 7 28 24 +4 36
8 Manchester City 23 10 3 10 29 27 +2 33

by **LFC2007** » Sat Dec 05, 2009 9:45 pm

bigmick wrote:
metalhead wrote:It doesn't look good, it really doesn't, but stats prove we do so much better at the second half of the season.

Bit of an urban myth unfortunately mate. The stats actually prove (or at least they have in the past as I recall) that there is little difference between our second half of the season and our first normally.

Obviously it would be nice if this season was the exception to the rule.

I thought we'd collected more points in the second halves of the last two seasons than in the first halves?

by **account deleted by request** » Sat Dec 05, 2009 9:52 pm

Last season after 19 games we had 42 points
we finished with 86 points so we got 44 points second half of the season

2007/8

First half season 36 points
Second half season 40 points

2006/7

First half season 34 points
Second half season 34 points

by **LFC2007** » Sat Dec 05, 2009 9:54 pm

Ok, we did a lot better from about February onwards though so it is fair to say we have tended to accelerate in the final third of the season.

by **puroresu** » Sat Dec 05, 2009 10:01 pm

I am worried. Its not just the results but the way we are playing. We beat Everton and won in the CL but neither game did we play well. Our form is really really poor.

by **Rush Job** » Sat Dec 05, 2009 10:09 pm

If we take out the mancs and chelsea then we are fighting 4 sides not 5.
I`d say arsenal are a sure bet to get one of them IMO so I`d say we are fighting 3 sides, spurs, villa and city.
Spurs will run us close but in the end as long as our injury problems remain improved we should end up safe and sound in fourth, by a good five points I recon.
You can quite easily have a shocking first half of the season and finish fouth but alot comes down to the fitness of Torres and SG,if we were able to get someone like van nistelrooy (i for one hope those rumors are true) on loan we`d be surely nailed on for atleast fourth.

by **red37** » Sat Dec 05, 2009 10:17 pm

LFC2007 wrote:Ok, we did a lot better from February onwards though so it is fair to say we have tended to accelerate in the final third of the season.

Accelerate? We are going to need a session or two inside the 'Large Hadron Collider' in order for us to make a decent fist of this term. And by decent i mean consolidation of a top 4 berth. There will be no more than that.

Its a mess thus far, in answer to the inquisitive OP. A bleedin mess. Infact, 50 years ago when Shanks walked through the door and aptly described the fortunes of this club as resembling a 'toilet' - Figuratively spoken or not....the situation now, albeit a damn sight cleaner - is still as s.*i*e.

We have a real fight on our hands to stabilise/re-assess/regroup and form SOME sort of effective plan that is going to propel us up the table. Even then i fear parity may well turn out to be a target that might prove elusive to attain given the clubs above us and what they themselves can aspire to. Maybe we are not talking miracles - but there needs to be a seismic shift of 'epic' proportions in order to even stay on the coat tails of 'the pack'

There is an elderly woman who i talk to on occasion, via the work i do and she knew Shankly quite well - her estimation is, that he would have an absolute resolve and a determination to ensure that the people who are responsible...Players/Management and the fans....ALL supporters of the club. Put at the very top of their priority, the interests of Liverpool FC. And not the bemoaning of circumstances out of their remit.

A true Leader of men and a Man born to stomach a fight worth fighting - i dont see too many of that ilk at the club today. What a disastrous, crying shame that is.

A mess (basically) Not terminal - yet. But there are many backsides who need a great big RESOLUTE kicking, to turn this one into the black.

Here's hoping - cos thats all there f*cking is now.

Walk on.

by **LFC2007** » Sat Dec 05, 2009 10:21 pm

red37 wrote:
LFC2007 wrote:Ok, we did a lot better from February onwards though so it is fair to say we have tended to accelerate in the final third of the season.

Accelerate? We are going to need a session or two inside the 'Large Hadron Collider' in order for us to make a decent fist of this term.

!

by **account deleted by request** » Sat Dec 05, 2009 10:51 pm

I do think the time has come to react to the situation and position we find ourselves in before its too late. Gerrard should be moved back in CM until Aquilani is deemed fit enough to take his place. Either Lucas or Masch need to be benched and we need to start playing with a more conventional 4-4-2 (at the very least while Torres is absent).

I am still confident that we will finish at least 4th, but time and games will soon run out if we don't act. 4-5-1 worked well last season but it its not working NOW.

by **5StarRed71** » Sun Dec 06, 2009 1:15 am

Everyone seems to think that we'll be fine "cos we always have a better half to season"

We had a very good "last third" to the season last year, but who's to say that we gonna replicate that this year. We've had a stinker of a start, and the way we're currently playing does not fill me with confidence. I wouldn't mind our results if I could see some effort and passion on the pitch - sadly I can't.

But what I fear most is that by the time our purple patch arrives towards the end of the season it might already be too late.

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