Liverpool FC Forum

by **bigmick** » Tue Jun 03, 2008 8:45 am

Yes Bam I think we have "No chance", or as I said earlier in this thread I think a chance which is at best tiny. For me we are coming from too far off the pace, teams don't come from fourth to first in one season, you need to build a base camp and then make an assault on the summit from there. That for me was the travesty of last season, that given an extraordinary set of circumstances* we completely failed to capitalise and get ourselves in the mix. Had we have for instance done "an Arsenal", I believe that like them we would be in with a chance next season. We didn't though so for me we're not.

The *extraordinary set of circumstances were in no particular order:

A) A relatively light season as far as injuries are concerned. I'm amazed that people hold injuries up as an excuse, we have been very lucky for a while now. God only knows where we'd have been if Gerrard or Torres had been out for a couple of months. As it was our only long term injury was Agger, and to a much lesser extent Alonso. You could also add in here, the p!ss easiest of p!ss easy starts. "But we're unbeaten" yes, I know.

B) An incredible start to the season at Chelsea. Implosion on the pitch followed by infighting, talk of player strikes, an unknown and untried manager taking over and a whole host of Summer signings which turned out to be utter sh!te. Allied to that, the bi-annual African Nations Cup came along to take three of their first choice eleven out of cuirculation for six weeks, they had bad injuries and like Man Utd, long cup runs to tire them out.

C) By their standards, a very poor start by Man Utd. Dropping points willy nilly as the season got underway, they had their worst start for years. They also experimented slightly with "Fergie style" as the season got into its final third, with predictable results which almost cost them the title. This despite the glaringly obvious fact that they were the best team in the league.

D) The Torres factor. Who would have guessed he would have an opening season like that? You could also factor in the Masherano principle (sounds like a Robert Ludlum novel).

Now for us to win it, we are IMHO going to need around sixteen points more than we got this season as I don't see Man Utd and Chelsea dropping so many points next time around. To do that we don't need any injuries almost at all to Gerrard, Masherano, Torres and Reina, we need to play with a level of season long consistency which has eluded us in four years under Rafa, we need Rafa to settle on his best team before his annual "seeing of the light" in February and we most likely need an early Champions League exit. Added to that we are going to need any new additions to bed in almost instantly, we are going to need Torres to have just about as good a season as last time around, and we are also in all likelyhood going to attempt to win the title with Dirk Kuyt playing on the right hand side of midfield.

I think we are about 8/1 with Betfair, and considering the imponderables in my view we should be around three times that. That said, if we can make a decent fist of it this season then the season after we might be able to do it, who knows.

Being "in the mix" at the business end of the season could be within six or seven points with five games to go Bam. When I'm asking for a title challenge, I'm not saying (and neither is anybody else to the best of my knowledge, yourself included) that we should nbe needing to win our last game in order to win it. To be in with mathematical chance with four games left would be something, to actually have the chance to dream would be even better. It'd be great when someone posts up one of those threads where we compare our remaining fixtures with our rivals to see where we'll end up, if our rivals weren't everton and Portsmouth.

by **66-1112520797** » Tue Jun 03, 2008 9:08 am

Yes Bam I think we have "No chance", or as I said earlier in this thread I think a chance which is at best tiny. For me we are coming from too far off the pace, teams don't come from fourth to first in one season, you need to build a base camp and then make an assault on the summit from there. That for me was the travesty of last season, that given an extraordinary set of circumstances* we completely failed to capitalise and get ourselves in the mix. Had we have for instance done "an Arsenal", I believe that like them we would be in with a chance next season. We didn't though so for me we're not.

I understand and agree with the bulk of your post. I'm not so sure about the first paragraph and I hope your wide of the mark. There is no rule in football to say that if you consistently come 3rd, 4th or even 5th in extreme circumstances, you cannot go out and win the league the following season. I dont know generally if this is a definate fact Mick or one of your hunch's. But in my mind we dont nessercerily have to set up a "base camp" a season prior to winning it, it makes no difference to me. Its still a possibilty, and to catergorically state that we dont even have a chance is hogwash IMO.
I'm ever hopeful during the summer months, that next year could possibly be our year. And I think you've just simply called that to early.

For us to have a better chance of winnning the league I also believe we'll need an early exit fom the CL. I dont think though we will exit early, as IMO its alot easier to be in the 'mix' of that competition or even win it than it is to win the league. This will be the big tester for Rafa, the juggling act between Prem and CL. To many times before has he dropped the Prem for the CL, nd before anyone jumps do my throat about him not prioritising one over the other. Its come from the horses mouth in the past, we're he admitted by being out of the title race as early as November (by God

) he prioritised the CL from there onwards.

Unlike you though Mick I'm not so sure that Rafa has learned from his mistakes, we've said this before and he reverted back to styling. I hope he proves me wrong, and goes out with a settled team from the off next season, because in doing that matey and a few other things we'll have a decent chance at winning the league. :;):

by **bigmick** » Tue Jun 03, 2008 9:18 am

Out of all the imponderables Bam, early exit from the Champions league is one of the least likely. We managed to lose two out of our first three gmaes last season, drawing the other and still qualified out of the group. I would be staggered if we didn't at least get out of the group next season as well (we'll be the only English team that doesn't if we don't, put it that way).

In fairness to Rafa though, in terms of prioritisation it's almost always been the case that we are well and truly out of the picture in the League before he has started to openly favour the Champions League. The only obvious occasion where that wasn't the case was in the qualifier the season before last at Home to Macabi Haifa, where we "styled" our way to a last minute 2-1 home win thanks to goal from substitute Marc Gonzalez. This had the knock on effect that we had to field our strongest team over there, and sandwiched in between of course was Sheffield United away, the first game of the Premiership season. The farcical selection there was rescued only by the mystifying award of a penalty by Rob Styles because someone attempted a slide tackle on Gerrard without actually making any contact. We did of course prevail in Israel, but our league challenge was over three weeks later as we desperately searched for a selection formula which would work. Aside from that occasion, we've been out of it each time he has put the league on the backburner.

by **Bad Bob** » Tue Jun 03, 2008 11:53 am

Mick will correct me if I'm wrong, naturally, but I think that built into his notion of 'needing to set up a base camp' first before actually winning the league has a lot to do with player mentality. We have a group of lads who have never challenged for a league title. When the high pressure matches come hot and heavy at the business end of the season and we're still in with a shout, will the lads collectively step up to the next level or will they get a bit overawed? It's a tough call. After all, who would have thought that that group of tryers we had in 2005 would have had the mental fortitude to get all the way to Istanbul and then erase a 3-0 deficit on the biggest stage of their careers? That said, I still feel that the lads will need a sniff of the excitement and pressure that comes with a challenge before they go out and win one. That's why I think Mick's spot on when he says that going from 4th to 1st in one go, while possible, is not especially probable.

by **Owzat** » Tue Jun 03, 2008 12:04 pm

Bamaga man wrote:I understand and agree with the bulk of your post. I'm not so sure about the first paragraph and I hope your wide of the mark. There is no rule in football to say that if you consistently come 3rd, 4th or even 5th in extreme circumstances, you cannot go out and win the league the following season. I dont know generally if this is a definate fact Mick or one of your hunch's. But in my mind we dont nessercerily have to set up a "base camp" a season prior to winning it, it makes no difference to me. Its still a possibilty, and to catergorically state that we dont even have a chance is hogwash IMO.

It's not like the old days, very open. It's now money does the talking, you are unlikely to have a team that was nowhere suddenly win the league, the Champions League and the money that comes with it makes that highly unlikely.

However you raise an interesting question about previous seasons so, surprise surprise, I decided to look into where the team that wins the league finished the previous (Premiership) season.

Premiership Champions (previous season finish in brackets)

2007/08 Man Utd (1st)
2006/07 Man Utd (2nd)
2005/06 Chelsea (1st)
2004/05 Chelsea (2nd)
2003/04 Arsenal (2nd)
2002/03 Man Utd (3rd)
2001/02 Arsenal (2nd)
2000/01 Man Utd (1st)
1999/00 Man Utd (1st)
1998/99 Man Utd (2nd)
1997/98 Arsenal (3rd)
1996/97 Man Utd (1st)
1995/96 Man Utd (2nd)
1994/95 Blackburn (2nd)
1993/94 Man Utd (1st)
1992/93 Man Utd (2nd - old 1st Division)

So only twice in the Premiership has a team won the league having finished lower than second the previous season.

The last team to finish lower than third and win the league the following season is Leeds Utd just a year previously (Champions 1991/92, finished fourth in 1990/91 and were only promoted in 1989/90) I'd have to spend a bit of time finding any instances of finishing lower, but Liverpool would set a Premiership precedent were we to win the league next season. And we'd be the first team in 17 seasons to win it having finished fourth the previous season. You're probably right in as much as we 'have a chance', but it would take something special and what is going to suddenly change that makes that difference? Money? Inspiration? Sudden drop in rival standards? Luck?

And if we don't win it will it be down to boardroom shenanigans............................?

by **bigmick** » Tue Jun 03, 2008 12:11 pm

Bad Bob wrote:Mick will correct me if I'm wrong, naturally, but I think that built into his notion of 'needing to set up a base camp' first before actually winning the league has a lot to do with player mentality. We have a group of lads who have never challenged for a league title. When the high pressure matches come hot and heavy at the business end of the season and we're still in with a shout, will the lads collectively step up to the next level or will they get a bit overawed? It's a tough call. After all, who would have thought that that group of tryers we had in 2005 would have had the mental fortitude to get all the way to Istanbul and then erase a 3-0 deficit on the biggest stage of their careers? That said, I still feel that the lads will need a sniff of the excitement and pressure that comes with a challenge before they go out and win one. That's why I think Mick's spot on when he says that going from 4th to 1st in one go, while possible, is not especially probable.

Yep you've got me there Bob. I remember (or at least I think I remember the old mind plays tricks sometimes) that Fergusons Man Utd got painfully close the yhear before they actually won it. Ranieri got Chelsea very close before Mourinho came in and finished the job.

I don't think anybody seriously expected man Utd would do anything other than win at Wigan on the last day of the season (particularly not with Steve Bennet reffing it anyhow, he'd have headed in the winner for them if it was required) whereas lets be honest if we were in the same situation, we'd have been absolutely bricking it. Similarly, I really fancied us against Chelsea in the Champions League semi purely because we had the pedigree.

Anyway, I was wrong there and hopefully I'm wrong here too but I just think it would be beyond us. It took us three quarters of a season to stumble upon a winning formula this last season, we need to improve the team by bringing players in but hit the ground absolutely sprinting which is nigh on impossible.

Realistically if this Dossena lad is top notch, and we pick up Barry and perhaps a Villa type player then we can go very close. The following season we could just buy a couple of squad players with maybe only one direct first team buy and really go for it, straight from the off. You know that next season you could probably name nine or ten of the Mancs first team off the top of your head, and even the replacements are already established. We've got to find at least eleven points on them, and probably a few more with the likelyhood being that we'll have three or four new first team players.

I've said before I hold Rafa responsible for us not challenging these last two seasons, we should definately have done so in my view. From where we find ourselves today though, I think it would be nigh on impossible for any manager to actually win the league for us next season. What we must do is get a taste for the battle.

by **Judge** » Tue Jun 03, 2008 1:07 pm

ConnO'var wrote:Whenever Rafa is brought up, the forum is decidedly split down the middle regarding his ability to bring us the league again..... The usual reasons/examples are repeatedly brought to the fore (sound reasoning on both camps by the way). For me, the question really is not in perceptions but in the facts. The only way to see if we've progressed, is to see if we've improved (at an acceptable rate) under his guidance.

To that end, let's take a look at our performance in the league since Rafa took the helm.

2005 2006 2007 2008 Average
Against relegated teams 67% 78% 78% 61% 71%
Against Man U, Chelsea and Arsenal 17% 22% 33% 22% 24%
Against Everton 50% 100% 17% 100% 67%
Against 6th to 10th placed teams 43% 100% 40% 63% 62%
Against 11th to 17th placed teams 64% 60% 69% 86% 70%
Home 70% 84% 81% 74% 77%
Away 32% 60% 39% 60% 47%

At the end of an abysmal 2007 season, Bob and I had a discussion on what actually happenned and eventually came to a conclusion that 2007 was actually a blip after a good season (in the league) in 2006. The performance this year seems to support that as the data shows that we've improved in most of the areas.

We've definitely improved against Everton, the 6th to 10th placed teams and the 11th to 17th placed teams.

Where we've taken a step back is against the Mancs, Chelsea and Arsenal. We continue to be atrocious against them, gaining an average of 24% of the points available per season. This certainly backs up the arguement (to a certain extent) that we cannot compete with the spending power of the Mancs and Chelsea. However taking into account Arsenal's performance against us, it is also reasonable to expect that we can compete a bit better even if we are unable to compete financially.

The disturbing stat for me, is our performance against the relegated sides. 2 draws and a loss out of 6 games to sides that will be gracing the championship next season is not good at all. I find it hard to accept that we cannot beat these sides on a consistent basis. Then there is the much discussed high number of draws that we've had. To the bigger clubs, even the losses we've suffered is understandable (unpalatable to be sure but understandable nonetheless). But draws at HOME to Birmingham and Wigan is inexcusable. To a lesser extent,the away draws to Birmingham, Portsmouth, Man City and Middlesborough are also a cause of concern. What is inexcusable are the two losses to Reading and West Ham away.

So to say that we are that far behind the so-called big three is probably not entirely correct. Why we didn't sustain a challenge for the league this year is fairly straight forward. We shot OURSELVES in the foot due to poor results against the lesser teams. Why?

Players
No good?
Not committed?
Bad luck?
Injuries?

Rafa
Dicking around with team too much?
Too much emphasis given to Champions League?
Outsmarting himself?

We've not improved significantly since Rafa took over.... Not so much because of the big 3 pulling away from us due to spending power but because we cannot seem to suss out a system that can beat the "lesser" lights of the league on a consistent basis, IMO. I would be (and have been) advocating a change..... if it wasn't for the damage to the club caused by another wrench in the works to add to the spanner (Gillete), screwdriver (Hicks) and hammer (Parry) thats already screwing up our engine room.

Dicking around, what has rafa been doing with the team?

:grinning:

by **Lando_Griffin** » Tue Jun 03, 2008 5:23 pm

s@int wrote:
Lando_Griffin wrote:
s@int wrote:Seems to me you you have stooped just as low mate and without the excuse of making a point. I never said Liverpool haven't had injuries have I?

All teams get injuries, its not something new. The only injury in my estimation that was catastrophic for our season, was the Agger injury. Apart from that its the same old story.

Maybe if we had bought a new CB instead of gambling on getting Heinze last summer even the Agger injury would have been more manageable.

There I was thinking Heinze was meant to be a replacement for Riise, a left-back, and that Rafa went out at the earliest opportunity and bought a CB...

Saint - pack it in. You're basically licking Man U's balls to try and make your point more valid.

Where are your standards?

I didn't bring up the mancs mate........ YOU DID

My whole point is that the mancs arn't some wonderful invincible team and that we should be competing with them. You obviously believe they are some super team that we can't compete with.

So who's licking the manc balls mate?

Me, that thinks we should be able to compete with them or you that thinks the mancs are so good that we should just accept they are better?

Stop trying to twist my words Saint.

I said that the Mancs didn't suffer badly with injuries last season, whereas we did.

At what point did I go out of my way to prove Man U's supremacy?

No team is invincible, but the Mancs had a lot of good fortune with injuries and the fact that they had £15m-£30m players in reserve to cover them.

Rooney out? Chuck in the £20m+ Tevez.

Hargreaves injured? Not to worry - there's the £18.6m Carrick and Anderson to step in.

If people can't see that this is a MASSIVE advantage, I don't know what else to say, really.

by **account deleted by request** » Tue Jun 03, 2008 5:40 pm

If you think the mancs and Chelsea are too good for us to compete with FOR WHATEVER REASON, thats up to you mate, I think we should be competing with them, and challenging for but not necessarily winning the title.
We will just have to agree to disagree on this one Lando.

by **taff** » Tue Jun 03, 2008 6:01 pm

But if we dont agree then its thought police insults etc. Have some people more of a right to argue and to be honest I find it as insulting as you lot probably do. Maybe its best we agree to disagree

Statistically speaking nobody has ever come out of a thread looking good when it descends into insults :rasp

by **Ciggy** » Tue Jun 03, 2008 6:26 pm

edited.

by **ConnO'var** » Wed Jun 04, 2008 12:09 am

Judge wrote:Dicking around, what has rafa been doing with the team?

You tell me mate!

Aren't you the expert?

by **Kharhaz** » Wed Jun 04, 2008 1:31 am

I said that the Mancs didn't suffer badly with injuries last season, whereas we did.

At what point did I go out of my way to prove Man U's supremacy?

No team is invincible, but the Mancs had a lot of good fortune with injuries and the fact that they had £15m-£30m players in reserve to cover them.

Rooney out? Chuck in the £20m+ Tevez.

Hargreaves injured? Not to worry - there's the £18.6m Carrick and Anderson to step in.

If people can't see that this is a MASSIVE advantage, I don't know what else to say, really.

Most definitaley they have the money to spend but even though they have spent masses compared to us it doesnt necessarily mean they have the best squad. You look at Hyypia, if his talent was recognised by all at the time his price would surely be £10mill plus. The difference for me, and this is not down to bitterness but the obvious. The main difference between Utd, Chelsea and Liverpool is the influence on officials. United have the double simply because the man in the middle is scared to death of defying the mancs. They have relied heavily on ronaldo and at other times the man in the middle. People rave about rooney but for me his early years playing for england and everton he was a revelation. He scared the hell out of the opposition now he doesnt know what to do. Money isnt the difference. Its influence other than your own team that wins games.

by **bigmick** » Wed Jun 04, 2008 1:56 am

Kharhaz wrote:
I said that the Mancs didn't suffer badly with injuries last season, whereas we did.

At what point did I go out of my way to prove Man U's supremacy?

No team is invincible, but the Mancs had a lot of good fortune with injuries and the fact that they had £15m-£30m players in reserve to cover them.

Rooney out? Chuck in the £20m+ Tevez.

Hargreaves injured? Not to worry - there's the £18.6m Carrick and Anderson to step in.

If people can't see that this is a MASSIVE advantage, I don't know what else to say, really.

Most definitaley they have the money to spend but even though they have spent masses compared to us it doesnt necessarily mean they have the best squad. You look at Hyypia, if his talent was recognised by all at the time his price would surely be £10mill plus. The difference for me, and this is not down to bitterness but the obvious. The main difference between Utd, Chelsea and Liverpool is the influence on officials. United have the double simply because the man in the middle is scared to death of defying the mancs. They have relied heavily on ronaldo and at other times the man in the middle. People rave about rooney but for me his early years playing for england and everton he was a revelation. He scared the hell out of the opposition now he doesnt know what to do. Money isnt the difference. Its influence other than your own team that wins games.

I can't say I agree with you there mate. Man Utd are very good at influencing the referee, as are Chelsea but to suggest that this is the "main difference" bewteen the three clubs is incorrect in my opinion.

It's also incorrect in my opinion to imply that money isn't a significant factor in who gets to the top of the table at the end of the season, it is.

FWIW I also think your analysis of Rooney is incorrect. Horrible ponce maybe but a fantastic footballer to go with it.

I do agree with you though that United have relied heavily on Ronaldo

by **Kharhaz** » Wed Jun 04, 2008 2:08 am

bigmick wrote:
Kharhaz wrote:
I said that the Mancs didn't suffer badly with injuries last season, whereas we did.

At what point did I go out of my way to prove Man U's supremacy?

No team is invincible, but the Mancs had a lot of good fortune with injuries and the fact that they had £15m-£30m players in reserve to cover them.

Rooney out? Chuck in the £20m+ Tevez.

Hargreaves injured? Not to worry - there's the £18.6m Carrick and Anderson to step in.

If people can't see that this is a MASSIVE advantage, I don't know what else to say, really.

Most definitaley they have the money to spend but even though they have spent masses compared to us it doesnt necessarily mean they have the best squad. You look at Hyypia, if his talent was recognised by all at the time his price would surely be £10mill plus. The difference for me, and this is not down to bitterness but the obvious. The main difference between Utd, Chelsea and Liverpool is the influence on officials. United have the double simply because the man in the middle is scared to death of defying the mancs. They have relied heavily on ronaldo and at other times the man in the middle. People rave about rooney but for me his early years playing for england and everton he was a revelation. He scared the hell out of the opposition now he doesnt know what to do. Money isnt the difference. Its influence other than your own team that wins games.

I can't say I agree with you there mate. Man Utd are very good at influencing the referee, as are Chelsea but to suggest that this is the "main difference" bewteen the three clubs is incorrect in my opinion.

It's also incorrect in my opinion to imply that money isn't a significant factor in who gets to the top of the table at the end of the season, it is.

FWIW I also think your analysis of Rooney is incorrect. Horrible ponce maybe but a fantastic footballer to go with it.

I do agree with you though that United have relied heavily on Ronaldo

The politest response I could have expected from that post ! I say this as I look over the last few seasons. Chelsea have been dominant. The money helps, but Mourinho has also. Out of him and fergy Jose is the most vocal. And who has been more successful in recent years? Jose has a gob which he is not afraid to use. As loud as fergy is Jose has always been louder. Refs were scared to death to defy jose. Only in europe was he truly punished. But locally he had one over fergy, he not only matched him, he bettered him. Not tactically, but vocally. The minute Jose was sacked fergy was back in control. If anyone can look back over the season and say United had no influence on the man in the middle and deserved to win the league then I will ask. Why? If they were so over reliant on ronaldo why did they deserve to win the league? Or maybe I am that bitter and just cursing there good fortune, yet again.

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