by bigmick » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:35 am
I think Rafa will play 4-5-1 and wait and see what happens during the game. Of course we arrive at this point desperately needing a result following our below average start (after they lost to Reading yesterday I ask once more, how many of those people who claimed that there was an overreaction after our game still think a point at Sheff U was a reasonable result?) and the main criteria will probably be to avoid defeat at all costs.
It's probably correct despite the fact that Man U are disappearing over the horizon to concentrate more on Chelsea. Wednesdays scrambled win over Celtic showed that all is far from invincible at Old Trafford and the feeling persists that anybody who finishes above Chelsea will win the thing. A draw would leave us five ponts behind with a game in hand, while a win would put us two behind with that same outstanding game to play. Defeat, however would put us eight points adrift with a game in hand and not far off out of the equation.
John Terry was out of order for saying we would be out of it if beaten but in truth, history would suggest he'd not be far wrong. We can't expect Chelsea to lose often at the likes of Middlesborough and to give them an eight point start over our remaining 34 games or so would be a tall order at the very least. My suspicion is that we could probably afford to lose another three games in the whole season at the most, with six or seven draws and around twenty four or twenty five wins. Twenty five wins, six draws and three defeats would give us eighty five points. When you consider that even this may not be enough, it makes you realise that enormity of our task should we lose today, and also shows in sharp focus the folly of saying things such as "the league isn't won in one game, calm down, knee-jerker" and such nonsense.
Anyhow, what's done is done so for todays game my suspicion is he will drop Bellamy, play Kuyt uptop on his own and Gerrard as the focal point of a five man midfield, with Pennant on the right and Gonzales the now customary eyebrow raising selection wide left, Aurelio at left-back and Hyypia replacing Agger.
You never guess it right, but I think that's what he'll do. With the exception of Warnock at left-back and Aurelio at left-mid, it's what I'd do as well under the circumstances to be honest. The feeling persists however that had we approached the other games with anything like our strongest team, we would have been at least two and probably three points better off by now and we could have really had a go at them with two up front. Still, it is what it is and I think we might sneak a 0-0.
"se e in una bottigla ed e bianco, e latte".