Liverpool FC Forum

The recent Suarez fiasco and rumours about Reina jumping ship have got me thinking about where we as fans actually see this club in the grand scheme of things.

Football has changed and we can no longer rely on our reputation as a club to attract and keep players.  It is a sport full of mercenaries now and clubs need cash and CL football to attract the best players.  FSG want to make us a profitable organisation.  That means we will not be paying top dollar in transfer fees for established stars and we will no longer be paying top dollar in wages.  Once Suarez goes we will have only Gerrard on over 100k, and including Carra that'll be 2 of our top 3 earners off the wage bill.  We can probably compete with the likes of Arsenal and Spurs as we will have a similar budget, but scrapping with them for 4th is the absolute ceiling of what we can achieve under our current ownership.  Chelsea and City are miles ahead in terms of wealth and willingness to invest, while United are also a wealthier club.

The idea of building up a club by investing in younger players and selling on the bigger stars for big money is a good business plan, look at Arsenal.  But when was the last time they won anything?  And that's despite having one of the best managers in world football who has unearthed plenty of gems for little money.  You can't be successful by selling/losing your best players.  Absolutely no way.  With Arsenal's policy (and now ours) the best players get impatient and want to go before the young players around them reach their potential.  And when those players reach their potential, guess what?  They want to leave too.  It's a conveyor belt.

This idea that 'we are Liverpool we should be competing with the best' is nonsense.  It isn't possible anymore and we are living off past glories if i'm honest.  We went into transition in the early 90's at the worst possible time when big money came into football in the shape of the Premier League and Champions League.  We have never caught up.  And with our current policy we won't.  I'm not saying it's the wrong policy.  I love the idea of building up a team with players who are relatively unknown, it means more than buying in big stars. But if that's the policy then expectations have to be lowered, and lowered a hell of a lot.

The fact is we are vulnerable to bigger clubs.  Yes, bigger clubs.  I hear you all saying 'but we are a big club'.  Well, yes we are, but there are lots bigger these days.  We have history and nobody can take that away, but what actually defines a big club?  These days it's money.  Most players would prefer to sign for a richer club or a CL club than a club with history, fact.  We have suffered in recent years - Torres, Owen, McManaman, Mascherano, Alonso, Arbeloa, Benayoun, Mereiles have all left in recent years to go to what they believed were bigger clubs.  Reina and Suarez may follow them soon.  Sigurdsson and Dempsey went to Spurs because they offered more money.  Fu.cking Spurs!

Currently I'd say United, Arsenal, Chelsea, City and possibly Spurs (arguably) are more attractive options than us right now for a player, and that's only domestically!  Add to that foreign clubs who offer regular CL football, the big Spanish clubs (Barce, Real and Athletico at least), the new money in France (PSG/Monaco) and the ultra-rich clubs in Russia (for some players).  After this season the Bundesliga has had a shot in the arm so clubs like Dortmund are flirting with our targets (Eriksen) plus you've still got the Italian clubs like Milan, Inter and Juve who always have clout in the transfer market.  We are way down the pecking order.

Is it all doom and gloom?  No.  We can still build a good team under Rodgers, possibly break into the CL and possibly win the odd trophy.  But winning the Premiership doesn't look possible, nor does consistent CL qualification over a number of seasons under current ownership and current policies.  We need to take a reality check and accept where we actually are as a club.

Currently it's low , the lowest since the CL started and the lowest in the last 10 possibly 20 years.

How we deal with this summer and the players we buy will go a long way to showing how we will progress

Sign players of the correct standard to move us forward and confidence in both Ayre and BR will increase

Time for them both to prove themselves

top post john, very thought provoking to say the least! i`ll reply properly when i have some time.

I get your point, but I'm not quite sure about the money argument. The 'we cant spend like the other clubs around us' excuse is one that primarily comes from our own fans as an argument to try and explain why we aren't doing better when we clearly should be.

Transfer fees
Over the last 3 seasons, we have spent over 180, yes I said 180 million pounds in bring in new players. Thats 2010/2011, 2011/2012, and 2012/2013: 3 seasons and over 180mill in player acquisitions. Many will argue that over that same time frame we sold quite a few key players. Thats undeniable. Torres for 50mill and Mascherano for 17 or so are the only 2 we sold for a significant amount that I can remember. Regardless, lets assume we brought in 100 or so million over the same time frame, not that it is relevant to the point I am trying to make but I know the question will be asked.

From the players signed for 180mill over the last 3 seasons, only 3 or4 are good enough to start in a side challenging for a top4 position ( Enrique, Coutinho, Suarez, and Sturridge is arguable).

Over the same time frame, our 2 main rivals for a top 4 spot (Arsenal and Tottenham) did this:

Arsenal:
Transfer spending: ~120mill
Net spent: NEGATIVE 2 mill
Starting players signed: Koscieny, Mertesacker, Monreal, Arteta, Cazorla, Podolski, Giroud


Tottenham:
Transfer spending: ~89mill
Net spent: NEGATIVE  9mill
Starting players signed: Lloris, Gallas, Vertonghen, Parker, Dembele, Dempsey, Adebayor

FFS, even ManUtd spent less in terms of transfer fees (probably a higher net spend though).

Wages
The last report I could find on wages in the premier league conveniently dates back to the 2010/2011 season. This is the table from the bbc website:

TOP PREMIER LEAGUE WAGE BILLS 2010-11

    Chelsea - £191m (up from £174m in 2009-10)
    Manchester City - £174m (£133m)
    Manchester United - £153m (£132m)
    Liverpool - £135m (£121m)
    Arsenal - £124m (£111m)

Since then, one would assume that our wages more or less stayed the same. Arsenal, and Tottenham probably lowered their wage spending over the same period, ManUtd probably maintained theirs, while Chelsea and Man City certainly increased .

Again, ManUtd, Chelsea and City are so far ahead of us that it is moot even bringing them up so I'll just try to illustrate my reasoning regarding Arsenal and Tottenham.

Arsenal:
Big earners Sold: Eduardo, Nasri, Eboue, Fabregas, Clichy, Song, Van Persie
Big earners Bought: Mertesacker, Arteta, Gervinho, Monreal, Cazorla, Giroud, Podolski

Tottenham:
Big earners sold: Pavlyuchenko, Crouch, Keane, Palacios, Woodgate, Jenas, VanDerVaart, Modric, Corluka, Nelson, Kranjcar
Big earners bought: Gallas, Parker, Holtby, Dempsey, Lloris, Dembele, Adebayor, Vertonghen, Sigurdsson   




The main difference as far as I can tell isn't the fact that we are unable to spend to bring the player in, far from it really. Look at all the players Arsenal and Tottenham brought in over the last 3 years and name 1 player who wouldn't agree to come to Liverpool if we made an actual effort to get him. They're not signing the Yaya Toures and Hazards, just good proven players who have made an impact at top leagues/ at international level. Our failures have mainly been a result of poor management at the top level. The managers we brought in since Rafa was sacked have all been disappointing.

The project or mission from the very top has been a shambles. A club that had the likes of Reina, Agger, Skrtel, Johnson, Enrique, Lucas, Gerrard, Suarez..etc doesnt need to be in transition. Theres no need for a 4 or whatever year project with a young manager who has ZERO experience at a top club. These are some of the best players in world football in their respective positions. Most of them are at their prime and should realistically be playing in the champions league rather than hearing about the 'fantastic progress' achieved by finishing 7th. Players like Gerrard, Agger, Johnson and Skrtel who are amongst our best players cant afford to wait for another 3 years before we start achieving given their age.

Good post Ace

It's alright saying we should have bought this player or we shouldn't have signed that player, but the bottom line is not all signings work out.

Having said that here's no doubt we've not done well in the transfer market in recent seasons - Adam, Carroll and Downing were awful signings and we haven't seen value for money (yet) from Allen, Henderson and Borini.  So to an extent I do agree that we could be in a better position than we currently are if we'd spent more wisely, without necessarily spending hundreds of million more.

But I'm talking about our current state and what our expectations should be now, not 3 years ago before we blew all that cash.  Those mistakes are part of the reason why FSG adopt the policy they now do.  Our recent past is a big part of our current problems.

Romance and nostalgia is still the cornerstone of football for most people, and because of that Liverpool will always be one of the 'great' and 'big' clubs in Europe, regardless of its results. It's the same with clubs like Ajax, Madrid etc.

Our current achilles heel is that to succeed at the top in the global marketplace we need a management team, on and off the pitch, with global football credentials. We don't have that. There are two crucial issues that need to be solved. Getting back in the CL is one and the other is the stadium issue. Should we do that, with Man City and Chelsea ( non global clubs) being hamstrung by FFP and Man United hampered by debt, we could be back up there challenging. I don't care what anybody says. Only Manchester United are our equal as a brand.

stmichael » Fri May 31, 2013 9:03 pm wrote:Romance and nostalgia is still the cornerstone of football for most people, and because of that Liverpool will always be one of the 'great' and 'big' clubs in Europe, regardless of its results. It's the same with clubs like Ajax, Madrid etc.

Our current achilles heel is that to succeed at the top in the global marketplace we need a management team, on and off the pitch, with global football credentials. We don't have that. There are two crucial issues that need to be solved. Getting back in the CL is one and the other is the stadium issue. Should we do that, with Man City and Chelsea ( non global clubs) being hamstrung by FFP and Man United hampered by debt, we could be back up there challenging. I don't care what anybody says. Only Manchester United are our equal as a brand.

Romance and nostalgia is the cornerstone of football for fans mate, not current players.

Exactly - players chase money and glory now. Not many care about clubs past history - it's all about the here and now.

The money the likes of Chelsea, Man City, PSG and now Monaco have brought to the game has changed everything and alongside the Hicks/Gillett fiasco has set us back to. i am a realist. At the moment we are way off  . Players will follow the money. Falcao today moved to a club that is not in the CL, has attendances which match those at Luton Town. He left a club that had qualifed for the CL and he also had the chance to move to one of the biggest clubs in the world but followed the money at Monaco. The game has changed sadly and unfortunately unless we get big money pumped into us or the others crash, we are not going to be amongst the elite. Sure, we may win the odd cup here and there, but to consistently be up there is a big ask. We have to wait for the likes of Chelsea, Man City dine first and then feed off the scraps in terms of transfers but it's the same for the likes of Arsenal and Spurs and even Utd to an extent

john craig » Sat Jun 01, 2013 1:01 am wrote:It's alright saying we should have bought this player or we shouldn't have signed that player, but the bottom line is not all signings work out.

Having said that here's no doubt we've not done well in the transfer market in recent seasons - Adam, Carroll and Downing were awful signings and we haven't seen value for money (yet) from Allen, Henderson and Borini.  So to an extent I do agree that we could be in a better position than we currently are if we'd spent more wisely, without necessarily spending hundreds of million more.

But I'm talking about our current state and what our expectations should be now, not 3 years ago before we blew all that cash.  Those mistakes are part of the reason why FSG adopt the policy they now do.  Our recent past is a big part of our current problems.

To a large extent, I'm also also talking about our current state and not 3 years ago. I dont think many within or outside the club would disagree with the assumption that Liverpool TODAY are currently a top manager and 2 to 3 players away from being a top4 side in England. Like I said, our competition at the moment (given all the factors mentioned by everyone) are Arsenal and Tottenham. Two sides who are similar in terms of quality and ambition. Arsenal have an edge because they have a top manager and CL football, but when it comes to world class players, they only have Cazorla who fits the bill. I'd even go as far as saying that our squad today is of a significantly higher value on the transfer market than that of Arsenal; which says something about the quality we have which is being (imo) mismanaged.

Again, I'm not sure what you mean by FSG's policy but my main grip with them isnt the fact that they havent backed the managers. They have. This season we spent around 50mill bringing in new players.
I do however have a problem with their strategic plan for the club. I have a problem with their managerial appointments. And overall, I have a problem with their lack of ambition which imo is a direct consequence of their lack of knowledge and experience in football.

And this isnt about romance and nostalgia. I assure you that if we lose Suarez, Reina and Agger and replace them with the likes of Aspas and Papadoupolous and end up finishing 7th with the same points total I'd be the first to come out and say that the manager has done well given what he has. That would 'dumb' my expectations to the level of others at the board.

As things stand though, I have no reason to. All indications point to another transfer market of us spending around 50 mill in new acquisitions (going by what we have done I would expect that at least, especially when you take into account the large income surge from the new TV deal). Carroll seems to be on his way out and Carra retired so we shouldnt be in any need of selling further to fund.

Starting today, if the owners and manager get things right (and that does include keeping Suarez or replacing him adequately), I see no reason why we wouldnt be challenging for a top4 CL spot next season. The stadium is a more complicated issue for a different thread but if our priority is getting the side back in the CL, then I think that it is achievable given our current ground, squad potential, and financial ability.

our standing in the modern game is still high. 3 or 4 bad years wont change that but another few like this and we will need a sugar daddy to bail us out.
on the field we genuinely look like we could do something next year but now that hangs in the air over this window. off the field we still have no stadium and imo fenway will never stump up for it either, they will want sponsors to pay for most of it. manure are not one of the biggest in the world because they have a big stadium.
we have big deals in place with warrior and standard but we will struggle to renew them if we dont get our act together on the pitch which is what football is all about.
our transfers in the last few years have been mostly woeful but thats down to constantly changing manager and letting the new guy make his mark. the lack of a proper board is holding us back and the best transfer we could make this year is ayre for daniel levy.

Good post John, agree with it all. We've basically become the Arsenal of the north, out goes the trophy cabinet and in comes the ppt displays to show how financially balanced we are.

Some will use this as a stick to beat Rodgers with, for some bizarre reason but like you say this club's been playing catch up for 23 years. That's the reality of it and expectations need to be adjusted accordingly.

British culture has changed in the last 20 years, we're incredibly fickle and impatient, we expect to go from a standing start to CL/premiership winners in 2 seasons. And Chelsea and Citeh's money throwing owners show its doable. And PSG, shortly to be followed by Monaco. 'Normal' clubs cant compete. Can't afford the glamour players, can't afford their wages nor the club structure that's needed to go with it.

Football cycles are too short. 4-5 years max? Most managers can't arrive then buy and develop a team in that timeframe before players start to wane or like Suarez, want to move on because they believe they deserve better.

German football has more patience, however the Chav's and Citeh's of this world have created a 'must have' attitude that has destroyed the reality of building a squad from the bottom up, as opposed to top down.

Rafa came close to achieving a 5 year plan, but Rodgers will fail because of losing 2 years playing with kids and go into a second cycle by which time his best players will have moved on - as we're seeing already.

Its a 2 speed highway, mega bucks = glory, prudence = frustration.

++  Does anyone honestly think we can win the league in the next 5 years? I don't.

Good post Reginald.