by TheoRacle » Tue May 09, 2006 3:17 am
So, four and a bit months on from my original post and with quite a few people asking now whether Cisse should be given another chance I thought that trusty old Excel needed another workout...
At the end of the season with just the FA Cup final left to play, this is how the same categories stack up. Note that I’ve expanded the lists of strikers analysed previously from nine to seventeen and now include God, Baros, Darren Bent, Crespo, Mido, Robbie Keane, Dean Ashton and Jermain Defoe.
The first category was Total Goals (all comps) which now looks like this (ranking from original post shown in brackets where applicable):
1st Henry on 35 (=1st)
2nd Van Nistelroy on 23 (=1st)
3rd D Bent on 22 (not ranked)
4th Cisse on 20 (4th)
5th Yakubu on 19 (3rd)
6th Drogba on 17 (6th)
Equal 7th on 16
Crespo (not ranked)
Keane (not ranked)
Ashton (not ranked)
10th Crouch on 13(=7th)
Equal 11th on 12
Owen (5th)
Baros (not ranked)
Mido (not ranked)
14th Garcia on 11(=7th)
15th Morientes on 10 (=7th)
Equal 16th on 9
Defoe (not ranked)
Fowler (not ranked)
So Cisse managed to hang on to fourth spot and even if you take away his handful of goals against the ‘easy teams’ he’s still matched the return of Crouch and Morientes over the season. Does he deserve more criticism than the others? Let’s look at how each striker contributed in other ways…
Total assists - misleading I know because an assist is only recorded for the final pass to the scoring player and does not recognise other players involved in the build up but let’s face it, unless that final ball is a good one, all the build up play in the world is not going to score you a goal! So there is some value to this stat.
1st Drogba on 11 (1st)
equal 2nd on 7 assists:
Ashton (not ranked)
Henry (=3rd)
Mido (not ranked)
Yakubu (2nd)
equal 6th on 6
Crouch (=5th)
Morientes (=5th)
equal 8th on 5
Crespo (not ranked)
Defoe (not ranked)
equal 10th on 4
Bent (not ranked)
Cisse (=5th)
Garcia(=5th)
Van Nistelroy (=3rd)
equal 14th on 3
Baros (not ranked)
Keane (not ranked)
16th Fowler on 2 (not ranked)
17th Owen on 1 (=5th)
Drogba here is miles ahead of the rest of the field and IMO shows the real value that he brings to Chelsea. From there though its pretty even with only 3 assists separating the next 12 players. Note that Crouch and Morientes officially both scored 5 assists for the season. A positive for the Morientes fans who keep getting told Crouch does more for the team!
So to summarise the return of each striker for the season, this is their Total goal Contribution calculated as goals scored plus official assists:
1st Henry 42 (!!!!) (=1st)
2nd Drogba 28 (4th)
3rd Van Nistelroy 27 (=1st)
equal 4th
D Bent 26 (not ranked)
Yakubu 26 (3rd)
6th Cisse 24 (5th)
7th Ashton 23 (not ranked)
8th Crespo 21 (not ranked)
equal 9th on 19
Crouch (not ranked)
Keane (not ranked)
Mido (not ranked)
12th Morientes on 16
equal 13th on 15
Baros (not ranked)
Garcia (not ranked)
15th Defoe on 14 (not ranked)
16th Owen on 13 (not ranked)
17th Fowler on 11 (not ranked)
As we all know, Henry is a special player and a contribution of 42 goals is outstanding in anyone’s language. With 27 goals and 6 assists in the premiership Henry has been directly responsible for nearly half of Arsenal 68 goals for the season! Who’s the one man team then? Also noteworthy, is the fact that of all the strikers listed here, Henry has easily played the most football over the season racking up 3980 minutes or nearly 44 and ¼ games! The most ‘used’ Liverpool striker by comparison is Crouch with 3309 minutes followed by Garcia on 3057, Morientes on 2927 and finally Cisse on 2854 over 1100 minutes (12 ½ games) behind Henry! Fowler of course has played the least game time of anybody on just 946 minutes.
This leads me to discuss how well each player has made use of his time on the pitch. Although it could be argued that their stats are distorted by playing so few games this season, this is where players like Fowler and Owen come into the picture and an indication of their contribution to their teams can be gauged. I’ve used minutes between shots as a measurement of how often strikers get into/ take advantage of shooting positions.
1st Henry 1 shot every 23.14 mins (up from 1/26.3)
2nd Ashton 1 shot every 26.15 mins (not given)
3rd Fowler 1 shot every 29.56 mins (not given)
4th Crouch 1 shot every 29.81 mins (up from 1/34.2)
5th Defoe 1 shot every 31.70 mins (not given)
6th Cisse 1 shot every 31.71 mins (up from 1/36.6)
7th Van Nistelroy 1 shot every 33.01 mins (up from 1/35.2)
8th Garcia 1 shot every 33.59 mins (up from 1/41.0)
9th Drogba 1 shot every 34.71 mins (up from 1/37.96)
10th Mido 1 shot every 39.74 mins (not given)
11th Morientes 1 shot every 41.81 mins (up from 1/44.6)
12th Bent 1 shot every 42.16 mins (not given)
13th Keane 1 shot every 43.92 mins (not given)
14th Crespo 1 shot every 44.69 mins (not given)
15th Baros 1 shot every 47.54 mins (not ranked)
16th Yakubu 1 shot every 49.86 mins (down from 49.80)
17th Owen 1 shot every 65.61 mins (up from 1/67.8)
Is it too simplistic to sum up Arsenal’s tactic as “Just give Henry the ball”? It sure looks that that’s exactly what they do. Henry’s shot rate means he’s had 172 shots over the course of the season! Fortunately for us, 4 of the 5 Liverpool strikers analysed in this post all finished in the top half of this list with Fowler and Crouch getting a respectable 3rd and 4th place respectively. Cisse is a close 6th place with only small margins between 3rd through 9th.
Yes so we all had lots of shots but what about testing the keeper? How often did the striker’s shot end up on target?
1st Owen (1st) with 77.78% down from 82.35%
2nd Crespo (not ranked) with 68.52%
3rd Keane (not ranked) with 65.57%
4th Van Nistelroy with 65.42% up from 64.86%
5th Baros (not ranked) with 64.81%
6th Defoe (not ranked) with 64.47%
7th Yakubu (2nd) with 60.27% down from 69.77%
8th Morientes (4th) with 60.00% down from 62.22%
9th Bent (not ranked) with 57.14%
10th Fowler (not ranked) with 53.13%
11th Drogba (6th) with 51.76% up from 48.94%
12th Henry (5th) with 51.74% down from 54.32%
13th Ashton (not ranked) with 50.36%
14th Crouch (8th) with 48.65% up from 45.16%
15th Cisse (9th) with 47.78% up from 42.59%
16th Mido (not ranked) with 47.37%
17th Garcia (7th) with 42.86% down from 48.08%
Perhaps this is the most telling stat for us this season as of all our strikers, only Morientes finished in the top half of the list. Surprisingly, Robbie’s finishing was not as clinical as I expected though with a spread of 21.15% (ignoring the extreme stats of the first and last placed players) perhaps I am reading too much in to list position here.
Finally and perhaps most importantly, each player’s conversion rate: is the player lethal in front of goal or not?
1st Owen converted 66.67% of shots (down from 70.59%)
2nd Crespo converted 29.63% of shots
3rd Fowler converted 28.13% of shots
4th Keane converted 26.23% of shots
5th Yakubu converted 26.03% of shots (down from 34.88%)
6th Bent converted 24.18% of shots
Equal 7th on 22.22% of shots converted
Baros (not ranked)
Cisse (down from 25.93%)
9th Van Nistelroy converted 21.50% of shots (down from 24.32%)
10th Mido converted 21.05% of shots
11th Henry converted 20.35% of shots (down from 22.22%)
12th Drogba converted 20.00% of shots (down from 23.40%)
13th Morientes converted 14.29% of shots (down from 15.56%)
14th Garcia converted 12.09% of shots (down from 13.46%)
15th Defoe converted 11.84% of shots
16th Crouch converted 11.71% of shots (up from 11.29%)
17th Ashton converted 11.68% of shots
Robbie’s reconfirmed my faith in him here though showing us that when he does get it on target it goes in! I’m sure his argument would be "Ah yes... I could get it on target 100% of the time if all I did was blast the ball straight down the keeper's throat – you need to place your shots in the corners and unfortunately some of them go the wrong side of the post and get labelled ‘off target’. Ask Michael Owen – he understands….”
Michael and Robbie for England? Hmmm, too late now – Sven “I’ve never seen him play but I’ll take him to Germany’ Goran Erikson makes the mind boggle once again…
But can Cisse finish? Well apparently he has a better conversion rate than Van Nistelroy, Henry, Drogba and two of the players widely touted to replace him earlier in the season – Defoe and Ashton - not to mention Morientes and Crouch. And he’s managed to do so while playing a fair percentage of his games on the right wing.
The point of the original post in this thread was to suggest that Cisse was coming in for some unfair criticism. I think that most neutral observers would say that Cisse has done a reasonable job for us this season. He’s scored the 20 goals he promised at the beginning of the season and has performed at a level comparable in most respects to that of his peers.
Should we get rid of him? My answer is no. At least not because of misconceived ideas about him not being unable to score goals or contribute to the team. If Rafa believes that Crouch and Morientes playing in a central role offer more to the general shape of the team then so be it but I have a feeling that Cisse will be here next season and with a specialist right-winger in place may just get more starts up front. I think with the correct support both on and off the field Cisse can still offer us plenty of ‘possibilities’ up front.
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