by Ade » Thu Dec 16, 2004 10:54 pm
Two weeks away from the transfer window opening, and a pretty crucial stage of our season. What will Rafa and the board decide to do: spend a little on consolidating, maybe one striker and a squad defender, with a view to rebuilding more in the summer? Or spend substantially more on 1st team players this January and go for broke this season?
For me, we've got to go for it now. I hope the club realise that it would be worth spending £20m+ this January, and getting in 3 quality players:
Gk: Cudicini £4-5m
Mid: Sean Wright-Phillips £9m
Striker: Anelka £7m
That would be my three. We could do with a decent left back, but i can't think of anyone except Wayne Bridge who'd fit the bill, and it's no longer a priority now our goalies seem to be playing like they're on someone else's payroll.
So that's around £20m. Is it possible to get SWP for £9m? Maybe not as a one-off purchase, but Man City are £62m in debt and if we went to them offering £16m (for him and Anelka) they may sniff.
And all this hype about SWP being £25m is two things: one, it’s well over the top: he's not worth any more than £10-12m in today's market anyway – not unless Chelsea are the buyers. And two, it’s a come-on from John Wardle, basically realising that they’ve got to clear that debt, he’s the main asset and, yes, he is for sale. As I say, a two for one deal and the price per player comes down. Maybe not that much, but who’d have thought Owen would go for £8m?
Chelsea may hold Cudicini to his contract, but he's clearly out of favour and will want away. He would be a top acquisition. Given that Cech cost them £7m from Rennes and is far and away first choice, they couldn't justify asking too much more than £5m for Cudicini. For me, Dudek is finished, and Kirkland needs to get his game together. Cudicini could come in and do a superb job, and I think for that price Chelsea might be tempted. They may not need the cash, but once an offer comes in for a top player who’s out of favour, keeping him on is often more trouble than it’s worth.
Anelka looks a safe bet already and is worth that outlay. Is he worth any more? Maybe, maybe not.
Feel free to laugh at my choices and valuations, but HERE'S THE KEY:
I think it's worth shelling out £20m on proven players NOW rather than £10m on one proven striker and leaving it at that. Why? For a start, the CL win over the Greeks has given us a £10m injection right off, so it's not that much of a hit. And also, if we shell out this cash and start moving up the league, as we would with these three, then by the end of the season we may do enough to persuade Gerrard to stay, and our performances may attract better players in the summer. Not only that, are any of these 3 ineligible for the CL? I don't think so, certainly not the 2 City players. Every game we go further in the CL is more cash back.
On the flipside, if we were to buy these players - or any other quality signings - to the tune of £20m and we STILL lost ground, Gerrard would probably be off at the end of the season. So we'd be in line for £30m at least in the summer going straight back into the coffers.
But, if we wait until the summer to sign quality players, and we wait until someone has given us £30m for Stevie, then every club is gonna see us coming a mile off with that cash and they'll ramp up their prices by 50%.
It's got to be worth the gamble now, not at the end of the season. Here could be the team for January.
Cudicini
Finnan
Carra
Hyypia
Traore
SWP
Gerrard
Alonso
Kewell
Garcia
Anelka/Baros
Bench:
Kirkland
Riise
Hamann
Anelka/Baros
Josemi
Any thoughts?