Liverpool FC Forum

by **bigmick** » Fri Mar 26, 2010 5:39 pm

So here's the scenario. The people who want such a thing get their way, and Rafa keeps his job into next season. Lets assume here for the sake of argument that we do finish fourth, and that we also win the European Copa Cup this season.

At the end of the campaign we've secured Champions League football, and we've won something. I know some will claim that overall the season has ended up being a resounding success (no they will, trust me on this) but most would consider even then that the team has at the very least taken a slight backward step from getting fairly close to winning the title last season.

So what about next term? If we got ourselves up to third and kind of in the title race up to and including Christmas say, would people at that point say we are "progressing" again, or would we have to get back to the level we achieved last season in order for this one to be a blip? In Rafa's first season (out of six) we were involved in a battle for fourth, and it took us five seasons to get a credible title challenge. Is it Ok to take five more from here, or do we really need to revisit some of our better moments a bit quicker?

I know some people are very understandably reluctant to draw lines in the sand given our tendency to make even the gloomiest of predictions come true, but I was just wondering like.

If rafa does stay, how do people expect we'll go next season. What is good enough?

by **dawson99** » Fri Mar 26, 2010 5:43 pm

Pointless questionmate. Haldf will say it don't matter whilst we got the yanks in charge, half will say Rafa has to go... doesn't matter how its worded, the end result will always be the same.

At the moment, with the manager/owner structure we have, we'll struggle for top 4

by **rocky29** » Fri Mar 26, 2010 5:55 pm

we need 60 million pound on new players with say 30 million going on david villa or aguero get joe cole on a free. sell lucas kuyt riera insua ngog. get fabio grosso fantastic left-back better than ashley cole and maybe ryan shawcross as cover for carragher and then maybe finish top 2. but if rafa in charge top six.

by **LittleHobo** » Fri Mar 26, 2010 6:00 pm

depends if we have to sell before we can buy

what the reports say is that rafa has to sell 20 million before he can even START to sell in order to buy then

if that happens then even finishing 4th is an achievment

by **account deleted by request** » Fri Mar 26, 2010 6:08 pm

For me if he does stay (and I will be very surprised if he doesn't), he would have to win a cup or make a very strong and sustained challenge for the league to get another chance. I appreciate that he may not get as much transfer money as he would like, but after 6 years in charge the squad should be complete or very nearly. The fact that imo we are not getting the most out of our players and value for money in the transfer market not withstanding, we need to play as a team where the sum parts are greater than the individual.

Certainly a poor pre-season (like this year) and a poor start to the season where we are out of contention by October and I will be looking for a very early change of manager.

So I would say a cup and or a title challenge and we could put this season down as a blip, anything less and I think it will be thanks and goodbye.

by **Fowler_E7** » Fri Mar 26, 2010 7:34 pm

There would have to be a huge improvement on this years performance in all competitions if Rafa is to get his credibility back. I would say we would have to have season as good as 05/06 and acheive around the 80 point mark in the league and have a decent cup run in one of the knock out competitions. The football would have to come back to an acceptable level as well to get me back on side, but what are the chances of any of that happening without major investment in the squad? pretty low if you ask me

Oh yeah if Lucas Leiva is still a first team regular then all my faith in his methods will evaportate.

by **terry66** » Fri Mar 26, 2010 7:38 pm

I think we must look at where we finish, then look to where we want to be.

by **LFC2007** » Fri Mar 26, 2010 8:19 pm

I wonder if the question should really ask what will be good enough whoever the manager. If the squad is definitely good enough to be making a genuine title challenge then surely too much leeway can't be afforded to whoever may be in charge of the team next season.

by **lakes10** » Fri Mar 26, 2010 8:27 pm

you have it wrong, under Rafa last year was the bliiiip when it comes to the prem, a bliiiip of good results for one year and ebven then he could have done a lot better if he had picked the team better.

if he stays (but he will not) we would need to be like the top 3 are right now, all in with a great chance with just a few games left.

by **account deleted by request** » Fri Mar 26, 2010 8:31 pm

lakes10 wrote:you have it wrong, under Rafa last year was the bliiiip when it comes to the prem, a bliiiip of good results for one year and ebven then he could have done a lot better if he had picked the team better.

if he stays (but he will not) we would need to be like the top 3 are right now, all in with a great chance with just a few games left.

Have you heard anything to suggest he will go mate?

by **Igor Zidane** » Fri Mar 26, 2010 10:13 pm

Like DAWS said i couldn't give two fecks what we do next season or for the rest of this .Rafa is not the first priority on my list . Getting rid of the owners first and formost is my priority , if Rafa or anyone else is in charge next season this season will look like a resounding success i can promise you that .

by **zarababe** » Sat Mar 27, 2010 4:34 am

lakes10 wrote:if he stays (but he will not) we would need to be like the top 3 are right now, all in with a great chance with just a few games left.

Great so he'll have a handsome transfer budget then
:shifty

oh BTW - RAFA will be here next season lakesy.. :rasp

by **Owzat** » Sat Mar 27, 2010 11:24 am

Depends what you consider our standard (under Rafa) He's taken us from a top 3-5 club to a top 3-5 club, winning the occaisional trophy. If we finish 5th then it will be below average, but our normal position is 3rd.

RAFA BENITEZ (PREMIERSHIP 04/05-08/09)

2nd (x1) : 08/09
3rd (x2) : 05/06, 06/07
4th (x1) : 07/08
5th (x1) : 04/05

Points : 58 (04/05), 82 (05/06), 68 (06/07), 76 (07/08), 86 (08/09)
Average : 74

GERARD HOULLIER (PREMIERSHIP 99/00-03/04)

2nd (x1) : 01/02
3rd (x1) : 00/01
4th (x2) : 99/00, 03/04
5th (x1) : 02/03

Points : 67 (99/00), 69 (00/01), 80 (01/02), 64 (02/03), 60 (03/04)
Average : 68

While we might be six points per season better off under Rafa than Houllier's last five seasons, how much extra spending did those points cost and of course since the league positions are much the same then it is more likely just a sign of increasing points totals for the 'big four' - needing more points to maintain the same league positions, the last five Champions average 90.4 points compared to the previous five Champions averaging 86.2 points. You can argue Rafa has the 'big one' in terms of European trophies and another final to his name, but in terms of what they both came here for (to win the league), the above is the only comparison needs making. Both finished top four in four out of the five seasons listed, so how exactly have we 'progressed' under Rafa? More pleasing on the eye? More robust? Closer to the league? Maybe therein lies a comparison.

Liverpool vs Champions points comparison

99/00 : Liverpool 67, Champions 81 (-14)
00/01 : Liverpool 69, Champions 80 (-11)
01/02 : Liverpool 80, Champions 87 (-7)
02/03 : Liverpool 64, Champions 83 (-19)
03/04 : Liverpool 60, Champions 90 (-30)

04/05 : Liverpool 58, Champions 95 (-37)
05/06 : Liverpool 82, Champions 91 (-9)
06/07 : Liverpool 68, Champions 89 (-21)
07/08 : Liverpool 76, Champions 87 (-11)
08/09 : Liverpool 86, Champions 90 (-4)

Both on average 16 points behind the Champions, although you might have to allow Rafa a little slack because it was his first season whereas Houllier had a season settling in albeit shared for a while with Roy Evans (I suspect Houllier had more than equal say/copntrol, can't imagine him taking a job under any other conditions) Every season Rafa has taken us beyond 80 points in a season he has followed up with less than 70 - with seven games to go the most we can finish on this season is 72, to do that we'd have to win six minimum (and draw one) or all seven which given this season seems quite unlikely.

That isn't to say Rafa isn't a better manager than Houllier, but the evidence he has taken us any closer to winning the league is lacking credibility. Whether or not that is purely due to financial constraints is debatable, but many use that excuse almost as a Rafa equivalent of a birthright that won't expire until the owners change, and even then only maybe.

So in answer to the question, I guess it depends where you think he should have been this season. We were lulled into thinking we might make a bigger title challenge this season, perhaps to compensate a poor season he would need to win it next season. Or are we going to have to be content with getting back to where we had been and should have been this season?!?!?!?

I think he'll be on his way in the summer, if so then the levels of expectation for next season may well have to take a slight hit and perhaps be reset to 4th which has been our level for EIGHT of the past 10 seasons and TWELVE of the last 15 seasons, so it's not as if Rafa has been raising the bar (that much)

You could almost say that we've taken such a downturn on standard levels that this is almost back to square one.

by **The_Rock** » Sat Mar 27, 2010 8:39 pm

Another season of :

1)Lucas and Mascherano Midfield axis
2)Kuyt on the RW
3)Benitez falling out with a player or 2
4)Bad transfer dealings

No no no no no........

by **red_guy** » Sat Mar 27, 2010 8:56 pm

Like it or not, i guess we're still gonna stuck with both Rafa and G&H next season. Same old same old. A lose-lose situation for LFC. :down:

Liverpool FC Forum

How well would we have to go next season.. - For this one to be considered a bliiiip?

Who is online