Liverpool FC Forum

by **dawson99** » Sat Jun 03, 2006 7:35 am

Well, its summer so news is short so im putting this in here. Some people may read it, some may not, but its always worth a look. I've always maintained that the best football pundits are those who decide what odds to give what. The reason is simple, money is important and the best people need to be at hand to give out the advice.

With Rafa signing a new 4 year contract he has been given a 5/2 chance of winning the premiership title in that time. That means in laymens terms that for every £2 you put on, you would get your £2 stake back plus a nice crisp £5 note. Looking at these odds you can see the faith that not only we as fans have in rafa, but also in the people who compile the odds. Ok, its not odds on (cheatski are 1/2 to win the title next term) but it still shows how much we are moving in the right direction.

Now we have the top goalscorer for liverpool next season, these are the odds:

Crouch 4/1
Fowler 5/1
Gerrard 5/1
Cisse 8/1
Garcia 9/1
Alonso 12/1
Risse 12/1
D Bent 16/1
Hypia 20/1

Ok, so Cisse probably wont be here next season, but look at Daren Bent. 16/1 is abig price and worth a few quid in anyones eyes. Of course if we do buy kuyt or Villa it would all change but thats how things stand and the early worm gets the value so ive put a few on bent just in case we do sign him, with a saver on gerrard whos always gonna bang them in.

Im not condoning betting, im really just saying that if this s what the experts say then it has to mean something.

Good luck all, lets make some money
:buttrock

by **teamleader1** » Sat Jun 03, 2006 8:09 am

As you say 5/2 is well worth a bet,

Ive noticed our title odds of 7/1 with will hill look good e/w value, pay out on 1st & 2nd, 1/4 of the odds.

Are the top scorer odds based on all or just prem games?

by **dawson99** » Sat Jun 03, 2006 8:12 am

premiership only im told.
for premiership odds take paddy power 7/1, they are 1/3 first 2 so a little more value

by **laza** » Sat Jun 03, 2006 8:17 am

So how much should we read into the bookies actually having Bent in the list as a possible top goalscorer for Liverpool ?

by **ConnO'var** » Sat Jun 03, 2006 8:21 am

Good to see the odds have shortened in our favour.

Looks like the bookies like what they see happening at anfield for next year.

Defo worth a punt... gonna place tenner on us come monday

:;):

by **dawson99** » Sat Jun 03, 2006 8:24 am

laza wrote:So how much should we read into the bookies actually having Bent in the list as a possible top goalscorer for Liverpool ?

Well, judging by where the money is, Bent is still 4/9 to be at charlton next term but 9/4 to be with us. So it is very possible and we have all been hearing the rumours. I thought it was worth a £10 bet, if he doesnt join, its only £10 lost, but if he does, then 16/1 wont be available for long

by **laza** » Sat Jun 03, 2006 8:39 am

Interestings and thanks for the insight
What a shame then that Joaquin, Villa and a few others rumour players arent on that list either then

by **teamleader1** » Sat Jun 03, 2006 9:23 am

Cheers Dawson

A 3rd of the odds is better, and its better in our pockets than the bookies,

As for Bent at 16s, its worth a couple of quid at the least, if it does come off he will be a 3/1 shot, and it would take over a tenner to get roughly the same returns

by **bigmick** » Sat Jun 03, 2006 11:22 am

Since we're talking a bit of value, (and being a punter myself I'm always on the look out) I've got one to chuck in for the World Cup. Now one of the markets I always look at is the "top goalscorer in the tournament" one, it gives you an interest throghout. There are a couple of things to bare in mind.

Firstly, the winner normally scores six or seven goals. This is usually made up of at least a brace against a team of minnows, along with goals picked up all the way through to the final. He usually must play for a team who reaches at least the semi's. Also, it's a bit of a lottery so we want a bit of a lumpy price to get our teeth into. It also helps if the fella is a penalty taker but it's not essential.

Well.....I think that Englands game in the semi's versus Brazil is a matter of destiny. If England win that, then I think we'll win the tournament. Along with Argentina, these three are the outstanding teams in this years competition.

Now I am of the opinion based on the other nights performance, that Michael Owen is some way short of full match fitness and in any case, cannot play upfront on his own. Rooney is clearly not fit and at best will appear as a sub around and about the semi's, while the selection of Walcott based on what I saw the other night over Defoe/Bent/Johnson is bordering on the bizarre. Other than if we are 3-0 down in the knockout stage and in need of a miracle, I cannot see any circumstance whatsoever where the Arsenal man will get on the pitch.

This leads us of course to our own Crouchinho. In my opinion he will play in all games up to and including the semi's. He will be one of the main targets when the best dead-ball delivery man in the World today looks up from all our free-kicks and corners. He is in the form of his life and he has a game coming up against Trinidad and Tobabgo, probably one of the weakest teams in the competion whom England would expect to beat 3 or 4 nil.

There is a technical issue here aswell in that Crouch doesn't really attack the ball very well but continental defenders by blocking and shirt-pulling don't really allow that anyway, so expect to see Crouch just standing still and defelecting the ball goalwards with his head.

Now I know that many will say, "Nah he's not a natural goalscorer mate". Neither is Milan Baros and he achieved it in the Euros. Believe me, it is worth a fiver of anybody's cash. I've just looked at Betfair and he is 70/1. A nice little £355 if he were to prevail. My hunch is that if Rooney doesn't pass the fitness test on the 7th, that price will tumble. If Crouchie scores a couple against Paraguay and/or Trinidad, then you'll be looking at a 10/1 chance. Worth a look don't you think Daws'?

by **dawson99** » Sat Jun 03, 2006 11:29 am

Always worth a look mate. Crcouh has looked good for club and country and in the group games he will be getting a lot of game time for sure so 70/1 is definately wortha fiver
Ive personally gone for pauletta for top goalscorer at 28/1 now (im on at 40s but did it a while back. hes a lone striker and there are easy(ish) games for portugal in the groups.
Also haed a bit on argies brazil to meet in the finals at 14/1 and a little on tevez/argentina at 80/1

i do bet a lot on the world cup but its all good fun, makes the day go quicker

by **Alonso14** » Sat Jun 03, 2006 12:56 pm

Im not too much of a betting man tbh, but i saw Crespo at 20/1 at extrabet and that could be worth a punt, considering he's got good playmakers around him.

But they got a tough group, but i fancy them to go to at least semi's.

by **Good Bob** » Sat Jun 03, 2006 1:43 pm

bigmick wrote:Since we're talking a bit of value, (and being a punter myself I'm always on the look out) I've got one to chuck in for the World Cup. Now one of the markets I always look at is the "top goalscorer in the tournament" one, it gives you an interest throghout. There are a couple of things to bare in mind.

Firstly, the winner normally scores six or seven goals. This is usually made up of at least a brace against a team of minnows, along with goals picked up all the way through to the final. He usually must play for a team who reaches at least the semi's. Also, it's a bit of a lottery so we want a bit of a lumpy price to get our teeth into. It also helps if the fella is a penalty taker but it's not essential.

Well.....I think that Englands game in the semi's versus Brazil is a matter of destiny. If England win that, then I think we'll win the tournament. Along with Argentina, these three are the outstanding teams in this years competition.

Now I am of the opinion based on the other nights performance, that Michael Owen is some way short of full match fitness and in any case, cannot play upfront on his own. Rooney is clearly not fit and at best will appear as a sub around and about the semi's, while the selection of Walcott based on what I saw the other night over Defoe/Bent/Johnson is bordering on the bizarre. Other than if we are 3-0 down in the knockout stage and in need of a miracle, I cannot see any circumstance whatsoever where the Arsenal man will get on the pitch.

This leads us of course to our own Crouchinho. In my opinion he will play in all games up to and including the semi's. He will be one of the main targets when the best dead-ball delivery man in the World today looks up from all our free-kicks and corners. He is in the form of his life and he has a game coming up against Trinidad and Tobabgo, probably one of the weakest teams in the competion whom England would expect to beat 3 or 4 nil.

There is a technical issue here aswell in that Crouch doesn't really attack the ball very well but continental defenders by blocking and shirt-pulling don't really allow that anyway, so expect to see Crouch just standing still and defelecting the ball goalwards with his head.

Now I know that many will say, "Nah he's not a natural goalscorer mate". Neither is Milan Baros and he achieved it in the Euros. Believe me, it is worth a fiver of anybody's cash. I've just looked at Betfair and he is 70/1. A nice little £355 if he were to prevail. My hunch is that if Rooney doesn't pass the fitness test on the 7th, that price will tumble. If Crouchie scores a couple against Paraguay and/or Trinidad, then you'll be looking at a 10/1 chance. Worth a look don't you think Daws'?

England one of the outstanding teams of the tournement? Get real mick. You know i like your posts and respect your views but you're taking the :censored:

here.

The top scorer will come from Klose, van Nistlerooy, Schevchenko, Raul or Adriano.

My money is going on Klose.

England will be lucky to reach the Semi's. They aren't good enough.

by **RedorDead** » Sat Jun 03, 2006 2:01 pm

Good Bob wrote:
bigmick wrote:Since we're talking a bit of value, (and being a punter myself I'm always on the look out) I've got one to chuck in for the World Cup. Now one of the markets I always look at is the "top goalscorer in the tournament" one, it gives you an interest throghout. There are a couple of things to bare in mind.

Firstly, the winner normally scores six or seven goals. This is usually made up of at least a brace against a team of minnows, along with goals picked up all the way through to the final. He usually must play for a team who reaches at least the semi's. Also, it's a bit of a lottery so we want a bit of a lumpy price to get our teeth into. It also helps if the fella is a penalty taker but it's not essential.

Well.....I think that Englands game in the semi's versus Brazil is a matter of destiny. If England win that, then I think we'll win the tournament. Along with Argentina, these three are the outstanding teams in this years competition.

Now I am of the opinion based on the other nights performance, that Michael Owen is some way short of full match fitness and in any case, cannot play upfront on his own. Rooney is clearly not fit and at best will appear as a sub around and about the semi's, while the selection of Walcott based on what I saw the other night over Defoe/Bent/Johnson is bordering on the bizarre. Other than if we are 3-0 down in the knockout stage and in need of a miracle, I cannot see any circumstance whatsoever where the Arsenal man will get on the pitch.

This leads us of course to our own Crouchinho. In my opinion he will play in all games up to and including the semi's. He will be one of the main targets when the best dead-ball delivery man in the World today looks up from all our free-kicks and corners. He is in the form of his life and he has a game coming up against Trinidad and Tobabgo, probably one of the weakest teams in the competion whom England would expect to beat 3 or 4 nil.

There is a technical issue here aswell in that Crouch doesn't really attack the ball very well but continental defenders by blocking and shirt-pulling don't really allow that anyway, so expect to see Crouch just standing still and defelecting the ball goalwards with his head.

Now I know that many will say, "Nah he's not a natural goalscorer mate". Neither is Milan Baros and he achieved it in the Euros. Believe me, it is worth a fiver of anybody's cash. I've just looked at Betfair and he is 70/1. A nice little £355 if he were to prevail. My hunch is that if Rooney doesn't pass the fitness test on the 7th, that price will tumble. If Crouchie scores a couple against Paraguay and/or Trinidad, then you'll be looking at a 10/1 chance. Worth a look don't you think Daws'?

England one of the outstanding teams of the tournement? Get real mick. You know i like your posts and respect your views but you're taking the here.

The top scorer will come from Klose, van Nistlerooy, Schevchenko, Raul or Adriano.

My money is going on Klose.

England will be lucky to reach the Semi's. They aren't good enough.

I too have huge respect for Mick as a poster and his tip for Crouch is very well argued.....BUT....I have to agree with Bob in that England are not one of the top three sides in the tournamant. Brazil and Argentina? Yes they are worthy of their status as favourites but England have yet to show any real class. I admit that on paper the starting 11 is as good as anyone's but while we have a manager as tactically inept as Sven at the helm we have little or no chance.
My outside tip for the finals is Holland. They are young and everyone has dismissed them but their qualifying record from a very tough group was amazing and they have some excellent attacking players.
Gonna be a glorious few weeks folks whatever happens!!!!

by **Good Bob** » Sat Jun 03, 2006 2:45 pm

The starting 11 for England isn't as good as anyones.

World class players:

Rooney, Gerrard.

International class players:

Ferdinand, A.Cole, J.Cole, Beckham, Owen, Robinson.

Good players:

Carragher, Neville, Terry, Campbell, Bridge, Downing, Lennon, Lampard, Carrick.

Decent players:

Crouch, James, Hargreaves.

Its a weak squad.

He SHOULD have picked:

Robinson, Kirkland, Carson

Neville, Carragher, Ferdinand, Campbell, Terry, Cole, Bridge.

Beckham, Pennant, Gerrard, Cole, Lampard, Carrick, Barry, Downing.

Rooney, Owen, Ashton, Defoe and Fowler.

Owen Rooney
Downing Gerrard Cole Beckham
Cole Campbell Ferdinand Neville
Robinson

Ashton in for Rooney with Fowler in and around the first team. Barry maybe in for Downing depending on strength of opposition for solidity.

by **RedorDead** » Sat Jun 03, 2006 3:19 pm

I am not a big fan of Lampard and believe he is over rated....BUT.... he has just scored his 19th international goal in his 40th game for England. How is that not international class for a midfielder?
England lead 4-0 by the way and Crouch has scored and reprised his robot celebration!!!!

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