Liverpool FC Forum

[tubby]

1st serious attempt has essentially shown the answer to be no. Will FSG continue to employ this recruitment strategy in the summer or shift away to a more traditional policy of paying top dollar for proven talent?

Discuss

[RedSi35]

Brad Pitt and that Fat bloke made it work !

[ycsatbjywtbiastkamb]

i`ve never agreed with this stats based approach to footy, footy is too fluid a game with too many variables to try and turn it into a quantifiable science.
look at assists, all they mean is that the player credited with the assist was the last player to touch the ball before the goalscorer, it doesnt neccessarily mean he created the goal, the ingenious pass which split the defence could have been one or two passes earlier in the move.
plus someone could create chance after chance with inspired pass after inspired pass but if the forwards dont score he doesnt get credited with an assist.
i could understand clubs looking at stats like how many games a player has played in the last few seasons to see wether he is injury prone and things like that but trying to determine how good a player is by looking at numbers doesnt work in footy, it might do in other sports but not footy imo.

[killerp]

1st serious attempt has essentially shown the answer to be no. Will FSG continue to employ this recruitment strategy in the summer or shift away to a more traditional policy of paying top dollar for proven talent?

Discuss

I remember FSG talking about using a stat based system to recruit new players. If stat's lead us to believe that Carroll, Henderson, Adam & downing are quality players I think it's time to drop that system... 

I hate to admit it but we were better off under Benitez in that department. Highly doubt he would even look at these players. Although he did have his own army of flops but none where as expensive, I think Aquilani was the biggest.

[ycsatbjywtbiastkamb]

1st serious attempt has essentially shown the answer to be no. Will FSG continue to employ this recruitment strategy in the summer or shift away to a more traditional policy of paying top dollar for proven talent?

Discuss

I remember FSG talking about using a stat based system to recruit new players. If stat's lead us to believe that Carroll, Henderson, Adam & downing are quality players I think it's time to drop that system... 

I hate to admit it but we were better off under Benitez in that department. Highly doubt he would even look at these players. Although he did have his own army of flops but none where as expensive, I think Aquilani was the biggest.

you can see how moneyball might have worked in baseball because every player goes up to bat, so you can compere different players one at a time doing the same job, you can compere like for like.
in football you have got 11 players doing different jobs constantly moving and interacting with each other, apparently the stats show that andy carroll was a good buy, whenever he has been on the pitch our average points return has been 2.00 points per game, project that over a season and we finish in 3rd place, the stats also show that 75% of luis suarez`s goals are scored when jamie carragher is on the pitch.....go do the maths!!
no more stats based footy please.

[SouthCoastShankly]

Moneyball will never be a success until the FIFA Financial Fair Play (FFPR) rules come into full effect.

Whilst clubs like City and Chelsea can make use of their beneficiaries to buy any player at any cost, they will continue to skew the market.

The concept of a level playing field that the FFPR brings is sound and will lead to a fairer transfer system, it will also lead to a greater focus on spending time to identify hidden talents at lower costs.

FFPR comes into full effect 2017, up to then it will start to take effect by gradually forcing a break even rule from 2013-14 season.

[ycsatbjywtbiastkamb]

Moneyball will never be a success until the FIFA Financial Fair Play (FFPR) rules come into full effect.

Whilst clubs like City and Chelsea can make use of their beneficiaries to buy any player at any cost, they will continue to skew the market.

The concept of a level playing field that the FFPR brings is sound and will lead to a fairer transfer system, it will also lead to a greater focus on spending time to identify hidden talents at lower costs.

FFPR comes into full effect 2017, up to then it will start to take effect by gradually forcing a break even rule from 2013-14 season.

i think it`s a good idea in principle mate but i`m sceptical wether it will work in reality, i can see the rich clubs coming up with some creative accounting or some other tactic to make their turnovers look bigger than they really are.
it would be a start though.

[metalhead]

1st serious attempt has essentially shown the answer to be no. Will FSG continue to employ this recruitment strategy in the summer or shift away to a more traditional policy of paying top dollar for proven talent?

Discuss

Well, we are saying the samething that other critics were saying when Billy Beane first used it. He got crucified for it by the media and the fans, but then it worked and they had a 21 game winning streak.

Time will tell

[LFC2007]

Is this simply the idea that through "statistics based" analysis it's possible to identify potential new signings who meet the needs of the team, but who don't necessarily cost a fortune?

I'm all for finding players who are value for money, and using statistics to aid that search where they can be relied upon to help identify the better players, but I'm not in favour of placing an overriding emphasis on statistics that leads us to pay way over the odds for players whose potential ability isn't reflected in those statistics.

Just judging by some of the comments that Commoli and others at the club have made, it sounds like our transfer strategy has been heavily influenced by this new emphasis on statistics. For instance, I seem to recall an emphasis being placed by people at the club on the number of assists made by the likes of Henderson and Downing. Likewise with Carroll and his 6 month goalscoring spell with Newcastle and Adam with his knack of getting assists and scoring free-kicks in his time at Blackpool.

What do these stat's really tell us though about these players' ability to perform at a club like Liverpool? We knew before we signed these players that players can have a season or two of high scoring/assisting only to fail to maintain it, or to fail to replicate it at a higher level. Andy Johnson and James Beattie are good examples of this. Nowhere near good enough to play for top clubs but I seem to remember they both managed 15-20 goals a season at Crystal Palace and Southampton respectively. You can only make a sound judgment about a player's potential ability by watching the player over a sustained period and asking whether or not they show signs of being able to perform at your club. Stat's may help to inform that judgment but they can only ever be a small part of a much bigger picture and if we aren't careful we could attribute false meaning to them.

[Reg]

Everyones' hiding behind stats and missing the main point. Moneyball is the concept of skilled scouts spotting young talent, undervalued talent and players too old to be considered the backbone of a young, dynamic manager's side.

Bow-locks.

Brian Clough won the European Cup with a Moneyball side.
John Toshack took Swansea from the 4th to the top of the first division with a Moneyball side.
Sunderland beat Leeds in the FA Cup final with a Moneyball side etc.. etc....

Of course its possible but owners, club directors, managers and fans prefer the easy route of wasting vast amounts of money on proven talent to mask the fact their scouting and academy systems couldn't spot a young Ronaldo if he came and knocked on the door. 

Call it Moneyball if you like, but itst scouting really and we used to be good at it.

[metalhead]

Everyones' hiding behind stats and missing the main point. Moneyball is the concept of skilled scouts spotting young talent, undervalued talent and players too old to be considered the backbone of a young, dynamic manager's side.

Bow-locks.

Brian Clough won the European Cup with a Moneyball side.
John Toshack took Swansea from the 4th to the top of the first division with a Moneyball side.
Sunderland beat Leeds in the FA Cup final with a Moneyball side etc.. etc....

Of course its possible but owners, club directors, managers and fans prefer the easy route of wasting vast amounts of money on proven talent to mask the fact their scouting and academy systems couldn't spot a young Ronaldo if he came and knocked on the door. 

Call it Moneyball if you like, but itst scouting really and we used to be good at it.

EXACTLY

[red_guy]

[quote="Reg » Thu Mar 29, 2012 11:00 pm

Call it Moneyball if you like, but itst scouting really and we used to be good at it.[/quote]

Spot on. What's wrong with our current scouting system.? Other clubs managed to get cheap young talented player and all we get is overpriced, overpaid mediocre players.

[LFC2007]

If that's what supposedly defines the "moneyball" concept, then it's really nothing new at all. It simply states what every sensible scouting system should aim for which is to make the right signings at the right price and that they may be older players, they may be younger players, or they may be players who are undervalued by their current clubs. If anything defines this supposedly new strategy, then it's the emphasis it places on statistics as one of the means by which that goal may be reached.

[woof woof !]

If that's what supposedly defines the "moneyball" concept, then it's really nothing new at all. It simply states what every sensible scouting system should aim for which is to make the right signings at the right price and that they may be older players, they may be younger players, or they may be players who are undervalued by their current clubs. If anything defines this supposedly new strategy, then it's the emphasis it places on statistics as one of the means by which that goal may be reached.

Somebody once said "There's lies, Damn Lies ............. and Statistics "

If the purchase of some of our latest signing are based on the "Moneyballs" statistical concept it obviously hasn't worked for us. 

[aCe']

Put simply, its the concept of buying based on analyzing player statistics while operating under a limited budget. The way I see it, buying Henderson for 20, Carroll for 35, Downing for 20...etc doesn't qualify as moneyball. For that money you expect to get top top players who are right up there in their respective positions and not just undervalued players who have favorable stats in one or two departments.

I said it before and I'll say it again, last summer was perhaps the most important in our recent history and we desperately needed to get our signings right. As things are turning out, I think its safe to say we haven't. If we did indeed look at plays purely from a statistics point of view (which I don't think we did) then whoever suggested those players needs sacking.

If they were Kenny's signings (most probably the case) then the owners will surely have something to say to Kenny before giving him the budget for next season. Its a tough situation for them too. If Kenny is convinced that British players with decent stats and premier league experience are the way forward while the owners disagree then it'll be interesting to see how that turns out. Usually I'd say managers should have complete control over transfers but going by empirical evidence it might not be a bad idea for the owners to intervene and assess transfers before sanctioning them.