Liverpool FC Forum

[Judge]

If we miss out this year on the league, and we fail next season, albeit a near miss or by a large margin - do you think we should sack rafa?, keep him?, or you just dont know? or not bothered at all?

obviously lots of folks have differing opinions, however, this way you can remain anonymous, and stave the likes of gybs and heimdall off yer back etc (joke folks)

[GYBS]

I guess its hard to say , have to judge what happens through the season and what happens in the other competitions .

[babu]

Hey what if we win the year the league next year. After that, how long should we give Rafa to win the next one? 1 year? 2 years? when should we sack him?

[DrPepe]

Hey what if we win the year the league next year. After that, how long should we give Rafa to win the next one? 1 year? 2 years? when should we sack him?

if he manages to win the league after a 20+ year wait, then give him the keys to Anfield 

[7_Kewell]

Rafa is now in a similar position Houllier was in after he won 5 cups...in the sense everyone EXPECTS us to go the next step and take the league. The summer signings MUST be an improvement on the disaster last year and Rafa must improve, or at least keep us close in the race again.

[lakes10]

I think its very easy, he come to the job and was told he had to win the prem , if he dont do it next year or dont look like doing it then he should go

[lakes10]

Hey what if we win the year the league next year. After that, how long should we give Rafa to win the next one? 1 year? 2 years? when should we sack him?

no he will get the same as before, 5 years but again if it looks like he is going down hill then he should go

[DrPepe]

I think its very easy, he come to the job and was told he had to win the prem , if he dont do it next year or dont look like doing it then he should go

and which bit of the "easy" decision actually improves the situation the club is in? 

[Judge]

Hey what if we win the year the league next year. After that, how long should we give Rafa to win the next one? 1 year? 2 years? when should we sack him?

my point being is that he's been around 5yrs now, and surely we should be reaping the rewards of the league now, that was one of the primary reasons why he took the job on

[Owzat]

We must certainly sustain a challenge similar to, if not better than, this season's. If Rafa can show that he can put pressure on the top side(s) for two seasons in a row then he should probably get an extension, if we whimper into third - maybe due to a distracting CL run - then I ask if we've made proper "progress".

I'm not sure if there would be any point continuing with Rafa in charge if we draw too many (say five or more) games in the first 19 next season, we simply must aim at 27 wins and it's the draws that have cost us this season - and last. In truth we simply didn't progress from our excellent season in 2005/06, we followed up 82 points with 68 and 76 - not bad, but a big 14 point step backwards and it's taken us two seasons to move forward from that 82 points instead of doing it the next season. A backward step of 3-5 points might have been ok, but not 14. There simply has to be some connection between our runs in the CL and the Premiership.

We've had two good starts to the season in a row, there is no guarantee that will continue next season. We've become very difficult to beat, we need to make the next step to going on long winning runs. Sure we had a run of nine and 10 wins in a row in 2005/06, but none longer than five since. Maybe the mancs have the psychological advantage, not over us, but the rest of the league. The rest of the league spend 90 mins wondering how long before the mancs score, how many and, if they go in front, how long before the mancs score as many as it takes to win. Sides come to Anfield knowing that they can defend a point because we simply haven't scored enough at home in the past. We may have scored 38 in 18 games at home this season, but 21 of those have come since the end of January

Home Games

Before Jan 31st : P11 W6 D5 L0 F17 A7 PTS 23 (Won 54.55%)
Since Jan 31st : P7 W5 D2 L0 F21 A5 PTS 17 (Won 71.14%)

Three goals a game since and including Chelsea at home, one and a half before that. One of the draws in the last seven home games was a 4-4 against Arsenal, the other 1-1. In the first 11 home games we not only drew five games, but scored only THREE goals in those five draws. As I've highlighted before with stats, if you don't score more than one goal you are vulnerable. Only twice this season have we scored 2+ goals in the league and not won, I think the stats are worth repeating/updating

PREMIERSHIP RESULTS BY GOALS SCORED 08/09

0 goals : P6 W0 D5 L1 F0 A2 PTS 5 (Won 0.00%)
1 goal : P9 W4 D4 L1 F9 A6 PTS 16 (Won 44.44%)
2 goals : P7 W6 D1 L0 F14 A4 PTS 19 (Won 85.71%)
3+ goals : P14 W13 D1 L0 F49 A14 PTS 40 (Won 92.86%)

We need to win around 70% of our games in a season, doesn't take a rocket scientist to work out how best to go about that from the above. HALF of those 14 games where we've scored 3+ goals have come since the beginning of March, one in February and three in December. We need to improve slightly on scoring, a few less goalless games and one or two less 1-1 draws ought to do it. Someone opposite Kuyt scoring a few more goals may well contribute to that

If Rafa can finally work out that winning games is more important than not losing games then maybe we'll see if he can do anything about it. Even if we do challenge again next season, I wouldn't give Rafa more than two more seasons without landing the Premiership. If he can't do it in 09/10 or 10/11 then I think he's had enough chances, even if he hasn't had as much money as other clubs, I can't see him suddenly getting more money or working out how to do a Wenger and win it in spite of that. Two more chances is fair, if he can't even challenge next season then part company as soon as it becomes clear we won't win it. This season it has been in the mancs' hands for half a dozen games or more, even after their (two game) 'blip'.

[roberto green]

It's hard to say what we should do,

1) First and foremost it is how we perform consistently next season and work on our weaknesses from this year(turning the draws into wins at home).

2) How much Rafa has to spend compared to Chelsea and Man U

3) How Rafa goes about his buisness in the transfetr market, He now can't blame Parry for this now and it will be very interesting to see how he gets
   the players that HE wants.

So going off the points iv'e made above, if he was to do bad with points 1 and 3 he will come under pressure to be sacked. if we happen to have point 2 were the other teams have more money but we have a good season but don't win the league there is not much we can do but stick with Rafa.

Lets just wait and see eh we will go into the new season loking for the final piece of the jigsaw ha

[GYBS]

ah its nice and easy just to get rid of manager then bring in a new one . simple

[DrPepe]

We must certainly sustain a challenge similar to, if not better than, this season's. If Rafa can show that he can put pressure on the top side(s) for two seasons in a row then he should probably get an extension, if we whimper into third - maybe due to a distracting CL run - then I ask if we've made proper "progress".

I'm not sure if there would be any point continuing with Rafa in charge if we draw too many (say five or more) games in the first 19 next season, we simply must aim at 27 wins and it's the draws that have cost us this season - and last. In truth we simply didn't progress from our excellent season in 2005/06, we followed up 82 points with 68 and 76 - not bad, but a big 14 point step backwards and it's taken us two seasons to move forward from that 82 points instead of doing it the next season. A backward step of 3-5 points might have been ok, but not 14. There simply has to be some connection between our runs in the CL and the Premiership.

We've had two good starts to the season in a row, there is no guarantee that will continue next season. We've become very difficult to beat, we need to make the next step to going on long winning runs. Sure we had a run of nine and 10 wins in a row in 2005/06, but none longer than five since. Maybe the mancs have the psychological advantage, not over us, but the rest of the league. The rest of the league spend 90 mins wondering how long before the mancs score, how many and, if they go in front, how long before the mancs score as many as it takes to win. Sides come to Anfield knowing that they can defend a point because we simply haven't scored enough at home in the past. We may have scored 38 in 18 games at home this season, but 21 of those have come since the end of January

Home Games

Before Jan 31st : P11 W6 D5 L0 F17 A7 PTS 23 (Won 54.55%)
Since Jan 31st : P7 W5 D2 L0 F21 A5 PTS 17 (Won 71.14%)

Three goals a game since and including Chelsea at home, one and a half before that. One of the draws in the last seven home games was a 4-4 against Arsenal, the other 1-1. In the first 11 home games we not only drew five games, but scored only THREE goals in those five draws. As I've highlighted before with stats, if you don't score more than one goal you are vulnerable. Only twice this season have we scored 2+ goals in the league and not won, I think the stats are worth repeating/updating

PREMIERSHIP RESULTS BY GOALS SCORED 08/09

0 goals : P6 W0 D5 L1 F0 A2 PTS 5 (Won 0.00%)
1 goal : P9 W4 D4 L1 F9 A6 PTS 16 (Won 44.44%)
2 goals : P7 W6 D1 L0 F14 A4 PTS 19 (Won 85.71%)
3+ goals : P14 W13 D1 L0 F49 A14 PTS 40 (Won 92.86%)

We need to win around 70% of our games in a season, doesn't take a rocket scientist to work out how best to go about that from the above. HALF of those 14 games where we've scored 3+ goals have come since the beginning of March, one in February and three in December. We need to improve slightly on scoring, a few less goalless games and one or two less 1-1 draws ought to do it. Someone opposite Kuyt scoring a few more goals may well contribute to that

If Rafa can finally work out that winning games is more important than not losing games then maybe we'll see if he can do anything about it. Even if we do challenge again next season, I wouldn't give Rafa more than two more seasons without landing the Premiership. If he can't do it in 09/10 or 10/11 then I think he's had enough chances, even if he hasn't had as much money as other clubs, I can't see him suddenly getting more money or working out how to do a Wenger and win it in spite of that. Two more chances is fair, if he can't even challenge next season then part company as soon as it becomes clear we won't win it. This season it has been in the mancs' hands for half a dozen games or more, even after their (two game) 'blip'.

How many games have united won when scoring a single goal?

9 wins (4 at home , 5 away), a full third of all their results have been 1-0.

they've had 3x 1-1 draws, and  lost to us (4-1 and 2-1), at arsenal (2-1)

meaning they have 30 points from their 15 games where they only scored once (almost double our points tally from 1 goal games)

sounds like we need to keep more clean sheets, rather than score more goals

[Judge]

ah its nice and easy just to get rid of manager then bring in a new one . simples

i'd expect that from a meerkat 

[Owzat]

Hey what if we win the year the league next year. After that, how long should we give Rafa to win the next one? 1 year? 2 years? when should we sack him?

my point being is that he's been around 5yrs now, and surely we should be reaping the rewards of the league now, that was one of the primary reasons why he took the job on

Houllier was getting no closer to the Premiership, at least Rafa has managed 80+ points twice now and we're closer than before in the Premiership. BUT we shouldn't keep giving Rafa second chances if/when he starts faltering

POINTS

99/00 67
00/01 69
01/02 80
02/03 64
03/04 60

So Houllier had two warm up seasons, one tilt and then worse than his previous two efforts

05/06 82
06/07 68
07/08 76
08/09 80 (with 2 games left)

Now is the crunch for Rafa, he didn't take us forward from 05/06, but he has got us challenging. He needs to go forward from it this time, we can't afford backward steps any more. No more five year plans, no more "next year".

That 01/02 Premiership squad cost £68.150m, this season our squad cost £147.300m. The market may have changed, but Houllier still had Anelka, Fowler, Owen, Gerrard, Carragher, Redknapp, Hyypia, Murphy, Berger, Henchoz, Westerveld, Riise, McAllister, Dudek, Barmby, Hamann, Litmanen, and Heskey (to name most of the players, also Xavier, Kirkland, Vignal, Biscan, Wright, Babbel, Smicer and Arphexad I think completes those who played in the league) It's when Houllier started signing and playing a lot of rubbish/substandard players that it started going downhill - Diouf, Traore, Baros,  Cheyrou, Le Tallec, Smicer, Kirkland, Biscan and Vignal (a third of a squad just in that list alone) And we lost a number of good players - Fowler, Anelka (loan ended), Westerveld, Litmanen and McAllister.

I think we were still working on the same three main CB options in Henchoz, Hyypia and Carragher (played FB a lot, but still a CB option), the squad was not being shaped in a good way. Heskey was playing a lot, but had his best season in 00/01, Baros scored 10 league goals in 40 apps under Houllier and when you see players like Cheyrou, Heskey, Diouf, Baros, Biscan, Smicer, Pongolle, and Traore playing a fair few games then you have to worry. It's no wonder we went from 80 points to 64 to 60. The 64 point season was perhaps the point at which Houllier should have gone

Premiership 02/03

Games 01-12 : P12 W9 D3 L0 F24 A9 PTS 30
Games 13-38 : P26 W9 D7 L10 F37 A32 PTS 34

Averaging 2.5 points per game in the first 3rd of the season, averaging 1.31 points per game in the last two 3rds of the season. After that fantastic start we went ELEVEN games without a win - including FOUR straight defeats. There should be an obvious point at which you dump the manager and that was it. Instead Houllier got a season and a half longer than he should have and that time was wasted.

What LFC need to do is judge when Rafa is wasting time, the last two seasons you could say we've made progress of sorts (building the side into one difficult to beat) and this season we should break our own record Premiership points. But can we afford to give Rafa two seasons if next season is another backward step? We can't expect to do doubles over Chelsea and Man Utd every season, there are TWELVE points that we will do very well to get half of next year. If we do reach 86 points then the majority of the difference between that and last season's 76 points will be the extra points taken off those two sides...................