by Bad Bob » Thu Aug 10, 2006 6:56 pm
My own view on Tompkins is that he provides some interesting insights, even if his views tend to be a bit Polyanna-ish. I found much of this argument compelling, though.
I think Tompkins and Anderson are spot on to focus on scoring rate (goals/minutes played) rather than goals/games in assessing the quality of the strike force. On paper, Robbie looks well past it: 5 goals in 20 or so games does not seem a great return. Yet, when you look at them in relation to the limited minutes he played in those games, it becomes quite impressive.
Moreover, it all comes down to the importance of the goals scored. How many of Robbie's goals were match winners? Three by my recollection (West Brom, Bolton, Blackburn). Meanwhile, the other two were the all-important first goal (Fulham, Portsmouth) that set us on our way--especially the Fulham game at Anfield, where, if you remember, our strikers were in the midst of that horrendous barren spell and Robbie's headed opener led to a 4-goal onslaught that saw Crouch and Morientes (who hadn't scored in donkey's ages) also get on the scoresheet. In this case, the stats confirm what we all knew: Robbie's a lethal finisher still!
May one complaint with this article, though, is that it is using stats from last season to suggest we'll be in decent shape this season. On the one hand, this is unavoidable--everyone uses past stats to predict future performance. But, it assumes a lot. It assumes that the strikers will continue to enjoy the same scoring rate that they had last season. There's no guarantee of that of course. It also assumes they stay healthy and thus get the required minutes to stick chances away. We'll see about that. I'd like to see one more striker come in--and that looks to be Kuyt this coming week if the press rumblings are right--to provide another dimension and to offset any injury problems and/or dry spells that may crop up this season for the front men.
It is, however, so nice to have some statistical ammunition to use on those numpties--including a few on this board--that insist Crouch is not good enough or that Robbie's past it or that Bellamy's not prolific enough.