Liverpool FC Forum

by **dawson99** » Mon Feb 27, 2006 2:35 pm

For those who do not read the racing post (you all should!!!) Kevin Pullein is basically the statto of football, and heres basically what he has to say about liverpool:

Why I believe Rafa should go for it against weaker sides

It might seem imprtinent to offer advice to a coach who has won the champions league, UEFA cup and 2 national titles. but here goes anyway.

I am convinced that if Rafa wants to achieve even better results in the future with Liverpool he should get themto play amore open, higher scoring game agasint weaker opponents.
The way liverpool play at the moment is ideal for games against stronger opponents. It reduces to a minimum the number of goals likely to be scored. The fewer goals there are likely to be in a game, the more likely it is that the outsiders will get a point or even all 3.

It fllows that if this is the right way for Liverpool to play against stronger opponents it is the wron way for them to play against weaker ones. And most of the teams they play in the presmiership will be weaker ones.

It was interesting that before this weekend Liverpool and Manchester United had both scored a very similar proportion of the total number of goals in their premiership games. The rpeseice figures were 65% for liverpool and 66% for Manchester United.
Yet whereas the total number of goals in Liverpool games represented an average of just under 2 a game, the total number of goals in MAn U games represesnted an average of fractionally over 3 a game.

You might think it incidental - neither here nor there - that Manchester had 3 more points than Liverpool. Yet if i punch these ratios it tells me that over 26 games Man U would be ecpected to gani at least 3 points on Liverpool.
At the end of the season, one point - let alone 3 - can make all the difference between hitting your target and missing it. It is the difference bewteen automatic qualification for next seasons champions league.
The fatc of the matter is that the more goals there are in a game, the more likely it is that the best team will score most of them and win.

Imagine a team who go intoa game with a 65% chance of scoring each goal that is scored. If there is one goal in the match, there is 65% chance that they wills core i and win. If there are 3 goals in the match, there is a 72% chance that they wills core most of them and win. and if there are 5 goals in the match, this % goes up to 76%
As you can see, teh higher the goals total the happier the better team.
the practical application of what i am saying depends on a team being able to maintain the proportion of total goals that they score while simultaneously altering that total number of goals. If they can, it follows that the optimum strategy for any team to adopt - not only liverpool - would be to try to decrease the total number of goals scored in games against better opponnents and increase the number against worse opponents.

In the table alongside i have illustrated how variation in the numbers of gols in a teams game can influence the number of points they get in a season. You will see that if liverpool could score 65% of the goals in games averaging 3 rather than 2 goals they might get an extra 5 points over a season.

%goals in games by team Average total goals in games

2.00 2.5 3.0

55 57 58 60
60 63 65 67
65 69 72 74
70 75 78 81
75 80 84 88
80 86 90 94
85 91 95 99

Ok, well what he says makes perfect sense to me but i wish it was just that simple, and then wed have 5 more points and be nicely in 2nd

by **dawson99** » Mon Feb 27, 2006 5:42 pm

i just wanna add that this thread can also be sort of joined with the other ones on rafas up front situation, but this one is a little more geeky so i spologise if thats why no ones got an opinion :cool:

by **bigmick** » Mon Feb 27, 2006 6:09 pm

FWIW Daws' there were a number of times earlier in the season when I was of the opinion that we were too cagy, waiting for the game to open up rather than grabbing it and taking control. Birmingham away was a glaring example of such a game, where in the end we had to settle for a point when they were there for the taking. Middlesboro away and Palace away in the Carling cup were other contests where we didn't seem to believe that our obvious superiority would be enough should the game get stretched and we paid a heavy price.
As we went on our good run though, our confidence increased (along with keeping godknows how many clean sheets which helped) and we began to play with alittle more freedom, the away game at everton being a good example as we blew them off the park.
In these recent times though as things have got a little sticky and the goal return has slowed to a trickle, we have become more circumspect again. Our difficulties against Benfica are entirely of our own making in my view as a slightly more adventurous approach would have seen us at the very least gain a score draw in the stadium of light against IMHO very average opponents. Now it could be very dangerous, a goal for them would put us in sorts of trouble.
It's all a chain reaction probably from our lack of cutting edge up top. Hopefully Rafa will bite the bullet and try some non-Morientes combinations soon so we can hopefully get back on track.

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