Liverpool FC Forum

[MASTER]

I'm not a big fan of stats, I prefer to believe what I can see. Keane made the first goal on Saturday by running down a slightly overhit pass and getting a good ball into the box. The Everton defenders helped by giving the ball up and ball watching. LFC mentioned Kuyts influence, and there was some in that he got himself out of the way, but he actually took Lescott with him who was playing left-back and not actually marking Torres anyway. Yobo and Jagielka seemed to think like everyone else that the ball was going out and switched off.

The second goal was once again made by Keane's astute pass. I noticed someone tried to give the assist to Kuyt, but if we are going to start giving out assists for being tackled then it's really going to get silly. In actual fact on this occasion Kuys influence was greater as it was Jagielka who went to ground tackling him, which in turn freed up Torres. Similarly the stats might call Alonso's header to Torres an assist, but to my mind when a bloke picks it up thirty five yards from goal, makes himself some space and buries it in the bottom corner, it's kind of an individual effort if you ask me, no assist involved.

Now I've talked a fair bit recently about people being in danger of losing credibility by either making ridiculous comparisons, or taking mind boggling stances on situations in order to strengthen their point. Whilst it is obvious that Xabi is some peoples favourite player, and equally it is clear that he hasn't ever been as bad as some people have made out, clearly it is there for all to see that he is currently playing to a level above and beyond what he has played at for some time. Now we can massage stats all we like, or say it's because the team are winning that we are noticing him, but to me it's as obvious as the nose on your face that he's playing well, much better than he was previously.

Ultimately it is as simple as that I think.

I agree to a certain extent that looking at assists in isolation is a bit pointless...you need the context.  I've grudgingly included them in the Match Info thread but I think the goal synopses tell the broader story of who contributed and how.

As for Kuyt, I think he did something crucial for both goals yesterday...he got in the box.  If there was no Kuyt in the box making the near post run for the first goal, Lescott deals with the cross and the chance is lost.  For the second, if Kuyt doesn't get on his bike and head for the box after feeding Keane there's no one for the Irishman to slide the ball to and he perhaps gets crowded out by the 4 blue shirts around him.  As it was, Kuyt made the run, forced a tackle and the ball fell to Torres, again unmarked because we had an extra attacker in the box.  Whether either contribution constitutes an "assist" in the stastical sense is neither here nor there for me...he helped make two goals, simple as.

Agree Bob,
But any self-respecting winger would have done the same, such as Nani, Young, Ronaldo or any true winger who enjoys scoring would make that run.

Still think the majority of credit has to go to keane and torres, as the hardest thing to do in a match is score and those to made VITAL contributions where as Kuyt's was more elematary striker positioning, thus I would be more concerned if he hadn't made the run this shows he still views himself as a striker.

[MASTER]

I believe in stats as a mathematical tool when the samples you get are big enough, I use them often in fact. Which is why I don't pay attention to many footie stats.

Joe's stats will be more interesting after 2 seasons than after 5 games, that is.

But it's interesting to notice, that being Alonso playing well, his "direct assist" stats say zero assists, and his indirect assists, four, more than anyone else.

I'm not even happy with the indirect assists concept, as a change of orientation in the right moment won't bring an indirect assist, but will help the team's attack.

Since direct stats were used to question Alonso's pass quality and creativity, I just wanted to question the validity of such a measurement to say something useful about a CM that spends a lot of time in deep positions and dictating the tempo.

This is a flawed argument Sabre,

You say that Alonso dictates the tempo and this even with his below par defending justifies a place in the team, however Cesc does the same thing with Arsenal as does Pirlo for Milan, but both have stronger assist counts and goal counts, but I agree that he is playing better now than the last 2 seasons, maybe more motivated after nearly leaving?

[account deleted by request]

Joe? I cannot see that assist in the excel files, no wonder Alonso has zero assists if those are not counted! I took that stat from Joe's sheet number two. I think he didn't include it as an assist because the run of Torres was long.

Seriously S@int, you're right, stats are useful if you understand them and you get them right. You have to measure the right variables with a big enough sample. I understand stats, I wasted two years at the uni with them.

his number of passes and his accurate passes are much better,and he has also lost a lot less tackles.

Is that so?

Do you follow somewhere his number of passes and number of lost tackles? If you take into consideration those variables, you will have a better measurement, and if those variables are better along the time, it would be safe to say Alonso is playing better with numbers. But not with assists. In the assist you mention, the Torres one against Sunderland, let's be honest, Alonso got that assist because of the utter quality and pace of Torres in that action.

In a nutshell: Are stats valid? yes, if the samples are big and you have enough variables under control. It's like weather prediction, which at the end of the day uses a lot of variables and stats, the more variables you control (that is the better computer you have), the more accurate the broadcast will be.

If you take into consideration assists, and indirect assists, that's just two variables. If you consider, assists, indirect assists, bad passes, lost tackles, you'll have a better measurement, but not definitive, because the quality of passes cannot be determined with numbers.

And always you have to consider that stats are conditioned. Give a world class striker to a passer, and you'll make the same player a great assistant. Give him a cráp striker and his assists might be zero in 4 years. It's the same player, so how can we trust a single stat to say something about a player when this stat depends on other players?

Lost passes often are a mistake of the passer. But sometimes the receiver stays waiting for the ball instead of looking for it, so a bad pass can be a mistake of the receiver. Did the stat take into consideration that? No.

If you, S@int, tell me that Alonso is playing better, I believe you. Because I respect your years as a fan, and your naked eye. I trust much more your naked eye and judgement than the stats, because most of the time they don't tell the story.

I like stats as when they agree with my views they can strengthen my argument...... when they don't they are obviously wrong or incomplete 

Seriously I think over a reasonable time period they do give indications (not set in stone) of trends.

Torres scored 24 league goals last season...... successful season for a striker. Kyut only scored 3 so not so successful.

I don't keep any stats Sabre, I just look them up. If they arn't accurate as with everything else in life ......... ITS NOT MY FAULT !

ie

Alonso Accurate passes :-

2006/7  1635 - 32 apps

2007/8  794 -   19apps

2008/9  419 -    6 apps

so he has played less than a third of the games than 2007/8 yet made over half as many accurate passes. Or for 2006/7 a fifth of the games 5 x 419 would take him over the 2000 passes for the season.

While if they didn't agree with my opinion I probably wouldn't quote them mate

[Bad Bob]

I'm not a big fan of stats, I prefer to believe what I can see. Keane made the first goal on Saturday by running down a slightly overhit pass and getting a good ball into the box. The Everton defenders helped by giving the ball up and ball watching. LFC mentioned Kuyts influence, and there was some in that he got himself out of the way, but he actually took Lescott with him who was playing left-back and not actually marking Torres anyway. Yobo and Jagielka seemed to think like everyone else that the ball was going out and switched off.

The second goal was once again made by Keane's astute pass. I noticed someone tried to give the assist to Kuyt, but if we are going to start giving out assists for being tackled then it's really going to get silly. In actual fact on this occasion Kuys influence was greater as it was Jagielka who went to ground tackling him, which in turn freed up Torres. Similarly the stats might call Alonso's header to Torres an assist, but to my mind when a bloke picks it up thirty five yards from goal, makes himself some space and buries it in the bottom corner, it's kind of an individual effort if you ask me, no assist involved.

Now I've talked a fair bit recently about people being in danger of losing credibility by either making ridiculous comparisons, or taking mind boggling stances on situations in order to strengthen their point. Whilst it is obvious that Xabi is some peoples favourite player, and equally it is clear that he hasn't ever been as bad as some people have made out, clearly it is there for all to see that he is currently playing to a level above and beyond what he has played at for some time. Now we can massage stats all we like, or say it's because the team are winning that we are noticing him, but to me it's as obvious as the nose on your face that he's playing well, much better than he was previously.

Ultimately it is as simple as that I think.

I agree to a certain extent that looking at assists in isolation is a bit pointless...you need the context.  I've grudgingly included them in the Match Info thread but I think the goal synopses tell the broader story of who contributed and how.

As for Kuyt, I think he did something crucial for both goals yesterday...he got in the box.  If there was no Kuyt in the box making the near post run for the first goal, Lescott deals with the cross and the chance is lost.  For the second, if Kuyt doesn't get on his bike and head for the box after feeding Keane there's no one for the Irishman to slide the ball to and he perhaps gets crowded out by the 4 blue shirts around him.  As it was, Kuyt made the run, forced a tackle and the ball fell to Torres, again unmarked because we had an extra attacker in the box.  Whether either contribution constitutes an "assist" in the stastical sense is neither here nor there for me...he helped make two goals, simple as.

Agree Bob,
But any self-respecting winger would have done the same, such as Nani, Young, Ronaldo or any true winger who enjoys scoring would make that run.

Still think the majority of credit has to go to keane and torres, as the hardest thing to do in a match is score and those to made VITAL contributions where as Kuyt's was more elematary striker positioning, thus I would be more concerned if he hadn't made the run this shows he still views himself as a striker.

If I were to quibble, I'd say that I'm not sure many right wingers would have been making near post runs for a ball played down the left channel (1st goal) or arriving through the middle to get onto the through ball into the box (2nd goal).  That said, I don't think Kuyt was playing a wide player's role during that stage of the match.  It was almost like he was instructed to, or took the initiative to, play through the middle as a third striker during that spell.

As for your other point, I'm not necessarily saying that his was the absolutely telling contribution for both goals but I think credit should be given where credit's due--the lad's come in for heaps of abuse of late so to acknowledge that he played an important part in two key goals against Everton on their patch (again!) is worth pointing out.  It may have been a matter of doing the basics right but it's still praiseworthy, IMO.

-----
EDIT

Looks like Torres agrees as well:

Meanwhile, Torres has passed on most of the credit for his goals to Robbie Keane and Dirk Kuyt.

Keane's cross was converted by Torres for the opener, who was afforded plenty of time and space by a near-post run from Kuyt.

Torres said: "It is very simple - without Robbie and Dirk, the goals I scored would not have been created.

"They were involved in both goals and it is because they give everything for the team that I was able to score them.

"If you look at my first goal, the ball that Robbie crossed in was perfect and so was the run by Dirk which took the Everton defenders away and gave me a clear chance.

"It is always nice to score, but without my team mates it would not have been possible."

LINK

[Sabre]

his is a flawed argument Sabre,

You say that Alonso dictates the tempo and this even with his below par defending justifies a place in the team,

Hi Master. I think I haven't say welcome until now, so welcome!

First off, mate, Fabregas is a different type of midfielder. Second, I want to clarify:

No, I think Alonso has a tough competition and if he's in low form he must be in the bench as he was for instance in some games last season when Lucas played well instead of Alonso. It was when Alonso was recovering from an injury and Rafa told him to step a gear up. Many members agreed that move, btw.

If Alonso wants to play in Liverpool, it has to be with a good form, otherwise, we have other quality players. I hope that's clear.

You might have read a few times some vehement Alonso defenders have little credibility, but what they defended Alonso from?

* He playes like a water carrier
* Once the rivals have learned to counter him, he's too slow for this league.
* I doubt a team like Arsenal would want to buy him.
* Some were ready to sell him on the cheap, which I think means Alonso's problem is not a problem of poor form that can be reversed, but that we need someone else instead of him.
* He doesn't give assists, he lacks creativity.
* He's incompatible with Gerrard.

So back then a few vehement Alonso defenders like me and Lando, or Nanny, and other less vehement posters like Bob, defended Alonso from those statements. The Alonso defenders were both biased and unrealistic. That was the picture back then.

What picture we have today?

The vehement Alonso defenders are still here, they're not biased anymore but have lost credibility. And in the other side we have some people saying Alonso has improved a lot. . I see no one thinking it might be a good idea bringing Barry in winter and offloading Alonso to Arsenal. Alonso must have improved a lot indeed. 

[burjennio]

i think alonso been able to step up a gear because the players he has in front of him now are alot more intelligent and have better movement than some of the players hes been aiming passes at for the last couple of years. against everton there always seemed to be multiple options for him to find where as in previous years one of the flaws in the side for me  has been the movement of rather the lack of it from the strikers and wingers. but now with riera giving the team some much needed natural width on the left it seems to open up the game a bit for Xabi giving him those extra options, we may still see the sideways 6 yard pass or overhit thru ball, but hopefully we'll also be seeing alot more quality and opening up of the opposition.

Someone mentioned assist rates and compared Alonso unfavourably with Pirlo, but didnt mention that Pirlos assists mostly come from set-pieces which he is arguably the best taker of in the world. Also its hard to create a direct chance from deep midfield when the opposition are camped out on their 18yard line

[Fo Dne]

I'm not a big fan of stats, I prefer to believe what I can see. Keane made the first goal on Saturday by running down a slightly overhit pass and getting a good ball into the box. The Everton defenders helped by giving the ball up and ball watching. LFC mentioned Kuyts influence, and there was some in that he got himself out of the way, but he actually took Lescott with him who was playing left-back and not actually marking Torres anyway. Yobo and Jagielka seemed to think like everyone else that the ball was going out and switched off.

The second goal was once again made by Keane's astute pass. I noticed someone tried to give the assist to Kuyt, but if we are going to start giving out assists for being tackled then it's really going to get silly. In actual fact on this occasion Kuys influence was greater as it was Jagielka who went to ground tackling him, which in turn freed up Torres. Similarly the stats might call Alonso's header to Torres (against Sunderland) an assist, but to my mind when a bloke picks it up thirty five yards from goal, makes himself some space and buries it in the bottom corner, it's kind of an individual effort if you ask me, no assist involved.

Now I've talked a fair bit recently about people being in danger of losing credibility by either making ridiculous comparisons, or taking mind boggling stances on situations in order to strengthen their point. Whilst it is obvious that Xabi is some peoples favourite player, and equally it is clear that he hasn't ever been as bad as some people have made out, clearly it is there for all to see that he is currently playing to a level above and beyond what he has played at for some time. Now we can massage stats all we like, or say it's because the team are winning that we are noticing him, but to me it's as obvious as the nose on your face that he's playing well, much better than he was previously.

Ultimately it is as simple as that I think.

I agree on the "assist" front. An assist is the last touch before the goal in a statistical sense. Its not always the reason for the goal being scored.

For example, if Gerrard picks the ball up off the keeper, beats four men then squares one for Keane inside the 18 yard box after carrying the ball 60 yards, Keane could chose to shoot but plays it to Torres instead, Gerrard is obviously the main reason for the goal and had the major influence, but stats and fantasy points won't show that. This is something which enfuriates me when people make points about creativety etc.

If Alonso tried a through ball every time he got it instead of playing the right pass he's obviously going to end up with more assists as he'll be trying to play the strikers in with every pass, law of averages say he'll get more assists... it would however be to the disadvantage of the team as 95% ofthe time he'd be conceeding possession.

[account deleted by request]

You might have read a few times some vehement Alonso defenders have little credibility, but what they defended Alonso from?

* He playes like a water carrier
* Once the rivals have learned to counter him, he's too slow for this league.
* I doubt a team like Arsenal would want to buy him.
* Some were ready to sell him on the cheap, which I think means Alonso's problem is not a problem of poor form that can be reversed, but that we need someone else instead of him.
* He doesn't give assists, he lacks creativity.
* He's incompatible with Gerrard.

So back then a few vehement Alonso defenders like me and Lando, or Nanny, and other less vehement posters like Bob, defended Alonso from those statements. The Alonso defenders were both biased and unrealistic. That was the picture back then.

What picture we have today?

The vehement Alonso defenders are still here, they're not biased anymore but have lost credibility. And in the other side we have some people saying Alonso has improved a lot.  . I see no one thinking it might be a good idea bringing Barry in winter and offloading Alonso to Arsenal. Alonso must have improved a lot indeed.   

While Alonso has made a good start to the season I think its a bit early to say he has overcome the problem of being pressurised on the ball. Maybe his standards fell so low that managers are no longer targeting him as a key player? Or as I have already suggested the introduction of a genuine wide player has improved his options ?

There is no doubt in my mind that he struggles with pace. One of the reasons he receives so many yellow cards is not so much through mistimed tackles and dirty play as having to compensate for his lack of pace by fouling. Probably much of his reluctance to get forward stems from his knowledge that it takes him three weeks to get back again.

Lack of creativity in his passing is a genuine concern which will hopefully be less this season as we have supposedly bought creativity elsewhere. As for assists see my previous posts.

One game does not make a season, the question of compatability will be one of those questions  that runs and runs.

I have always tried to be fair, if a player is playing bad imo I say so, if a player is playing well imo I say so.

E.g. Kuyt I have moaned with the rest about Kuyt both this season and last, I thought he played well on Saturday....... and said so.

TBH I can't see the relevance of the Barry comment, Barry didn't come, so we have to move on. If it helped motivate Alonso great.

[RedBlood]

xabi is a top draw player anyone who cant see that simply doesnt deserve to watch football, he was brilliant on saturday and his attitude since he returned for the euros has been spot onthe only reason he isnt a certainty to start every week is because mascherano gerrard and lucas are also of the highest quality
for me this is the type of problam we need like the centre backs, two quality players fighting for every position

[account deleted by request]

I'm not a big fan of stats, I prefer to believe what I can see. Keane made the first goal on Saturday by running down a slightly overhit pass and getting a good ball into the box. The Everton defenders helped by giving the ball up and ball watching. LFC mentioned Kuyts influence, and there was some in that he got himself out of the way, but he actually took Lescott with him who was playing left-back and not actually marking Torres anyway. Yobo and Jagielka seemed to think like everyone else that the ball was going out and switched off.

The second goal was once again made by Keane's astute pass. I noticed someone tried to give the assist to Kuyt, but if we are going to start giving out assists for being tackled then it's really going to get silly. In actual fact on this occasion Kuys influence was greater as it was Jagielka who went to ground tackling him, which in turn freed up Torres. Similarly the stats might call Alonso's header to Torres (against Sunderland) an assist, but to my mind when a bloke picks it up thirty five yards from goal, makes himself some space and buries it in the bottom corner, it's kind of an individual effort if you ask me, no assist involved.

Now I've talked a fair bit recently about people being in danger of losing credibility by either making ridiculous comparisons, or taking mind boggling stances on situations in order to strengthen their point. Whilst it is obvious that Xabi is some peoples favourite player, and equally it is clear that he hasn't ever been as bad as some people have made out, clearly it is there for all to see that he is currently playing to a level above and beyond what he has played at for some time. Now we can massage stats all we like, or say it's because the team are winning that we are noticing him, but to me it's as obvious as the nose on your face that he's playing well, much better than he was previously.

Ultimately it is as simple as that I think.

I agree on the "assist" front. An assist is the last touch before the goal in a statistical sense. Its not always the reason for the goal being scored.

For example, if Gerrard picks the ball up off the keeper, beats four men then squares one for Keane inside the 18 yard box after carrying the ball 60 yards, Keane could chose to shoot but plays it to Torres instead, Gerrard is obviously the main reason for the goal and had the major influence, but stats and fantasy points won't show that. This is something which enfuriates me when people make points about creativety etc.

If Alonso tried a through ball every time he got it instead of playing the right pass he's obviously going to end up with more assists as he'll be trying to play the strikers in with every pass, law of averages say he'll get more assists... it would however be to the disadvantage of the team as 95% ofthe time he'd be conceeding possession.

I know what you mean mate but its the same for any stat. Taken in isolation they are meaningless, taken over a period of time the oddities get ironed out and you are left with perhaps some useful information.

A striker who shoots everytime he gets the ball would probably score more goals, but would more often than not be detrimental to the team as the team would score less as he is not making the right choices. That doesn't mean we shouldn't appreciate Torres for scoring 30 odd goals last season?

Taken in isolation stats are meaningless or dangerous. Kuyt scored from his only chance at Newcastle last season(hit his knee) ,Torres had about 5 good chances and missed them all. Kuyt is obviously better than Torres!     

You have to interpret stats based on your opinion, experience and knowledge and not just accept them at face value.

Alonso made 5 assists in both his first 2 seasons, his last two seasons only one in each.  His form is accepted by most to have been poorer the last couple of seasons.  Coincidence, change of strikers, wingers etc or is there a link. Thats where knowledge and experience come in .......

[Jimmy the Weasel]

I agree on the "assist" front. An assist is the last touch before the goal in a statistical sense. Its not always the reason for the goal being scored.

For example, if Gerrard picks the ball up off the keeper, beats four men then squares one for Keane inside the 18 yard box after carrying the ball 60 yards, Keane could chose to shoot but plays it to Torres instead, Gerrard is obviously the main reason for the goal and had the major influence, but stats and fantasy points won't show that. This is something which enfuriates me when people make points about creativety etc.

If Alonso tried a through ball every time he got it instead of playing the right pass he's obviously going to end up with more assists as he'll be trying to play the strikers in with every pass, law of averages say he'll get more assists... it would however be to the disadvantage of the team as 95% ofthe time he'd be conceeding possession.

The exact point I've made last week about the difference between being credited with an "assist" and "creating a chance" mate, agree completely.

[account deleted by request]

If you, S@int, tell me that Alonso is playing better, I believe you. Because I respect your years as a fan, and your naked eye. I trust much more your naked eye and judgement than the stats, because most of the time they don't tell the story.

Why believe me now when I say he's playing well........ you didn't believe me before when I said he wasn't playing well   

Only joking Sabre

[NANNY RED]

Not back to his best yet xabi but he's getting there , another good problem to have him and masch  for the 1 of the 2 central midfield places if gerrard plays in the middle  .

against Everton he was fantastic, Alonso of the old

If that was fantastic that you have not seen the old xabi alonso? He was good , never fantastic but was one of his better performances even though he was rather anoymous , the unsung hero in a way

You havin a laugh lad?

Seriously?

Absoloutely clueless.

Xabi done nothin wrong yesterday. Held the middle well broke down any of there moves just played the nice easy ball. Done his job perfectly imo

My point was he didn't do anything wrong because he got EVERYTHING right, he was immense.

Sorry Stu i was a bit slow on the sarcasm there

[Sabre]

<snip S@int's long reply post>

Sorry S@int, I posted that a bit angry with bigmick, and I know you always tried to be fair with Alonso and any other player really. And it was a mistake: I don't believe in blocks and factions, your position, Bamaga's position, and Bigmick's position had their own differences and details, and I made a mix.

I made the mistake because I didn't like Bigmick's words about the credibility of some posters without giving names, I don't care if he aimed it to me, Kazzaa, Lando or all of us, just as it's wrong to tell Bigmick that Rafa has a coach title and he hasn't, it's wrong to settle something as a "glaringly obvious" fact and ridiculing a opinion that disagrees that. It's lazy thinking and I NEVER saw Bigmick doing that. It's as lazy as saying that  3 spanish national coaches selected Alonso is an obvious sign that he played well to a certain level. If we start saying things like that, what's the point of coming here and discussing?


I was angry especially when he agreed with me less than 2 weeks ago that Alonso hadn't improved that much. When did the glaringly obvious improvement come then? after the dissapointing Stoke game?

I made the mistake of getting angry and simplifying the matter a lot.

Sorry.

And you know what? you're right. It's a bit too early to talk about leaving aside old problems... and too early to say he's a much better player aswell.

[Sabre]

If you, S@int, tell me that Alonso is playing better, I believe you. Because I respect your years as a fan, and your naked eye. I trust much more your naked eye and judgement than the stats, because most of the time they don't tell the story.

Why believe me now when I say he's playing well........ you didn't believe me before when I said he wasn't playing well   

Only joking Sabre

For the same reason you only quote the stats that you like, because it's convenient, mate!