Summer signings the key to success? - Paul tomkins

Liverpool Football Club - General Discussion

Postby Reg » Wed Jul 18, 2007 2:03 pm

While practice doesn't always follow seamlessly from theory, this summer has – in theory – been the Reds' best in the transfer market for 20 years. 

It takes me back to 1987, when the loss of Ian Rush was offset by the staggered arrival of the attacking quartet of John Barnes, Peter Beardsley, John Aldridge and Ray Houghton.
 
Until this year, there hadn't been a summer since when so much talent was procured. In terms of natural, attacking ability this has been comparable to that vintage haul from two decades ago.
 
Some pessimists may call to mind another summer of activity: 2002, and Gérard Houllier's ill-fated signings. But this year's crop are far more talented and, to my mind, more mentally suited to the pressures of a big club expected to push for league titles. Of course, the theory still needs to be put into practice.
 
At this stage, however, there's not much more can be done than getting in players who appear to solve problems and eradicate shortcomings. The potential of these players need to be discussed now, but true judgement cannot be passed for one, maybe two years.
 
It's fair to say that the new American ownership has begun with real positive action. Targets were identified, and deals were struck before mid-July, in time for the new boys to start their integration in pre-season training. On top of this, the future of the club was safeguarded with long-term deals handed to key players and the procurement of scores of teenage talents. Good money was received for those departing.
 
While generally positive, I try to keep an open mind regarding every new signing. I try to see why a player has been bought, and the good things he will potentially offer. All players can end up ultimately failing for one reason or another, but it's about looking at the potential to succeed in the present and future, not what may have happened in the past.
 
That doesn't mean I think every signing will automatically succeed; no manager can outfox the law of averages. And no pundit can precisely foretell who'll be a hit and who won't.
 
But I've rarely been as excited by a summer's influx as the 2007 crop. Again it relates to potential, but these players have the ability to not just succeed as individuals but to enhance the team by adding hitherto absent dimensions. And for years to come, at that. These aren't quick fixes designed to burn briefly then fade.
 
I have been a fan of both Torres and Benayoun for a few years now. I spoke in depth about the former last week, but the latter is someone who impressed me in La Liga at an unfashionable club, and who had a superb first season in English football.
 
I've heard some fans suggest he's not as good as Luis Garcia, but the Israeli's record in the top Spanish division, in a weaker team, was arguably more impressive than the departed no.10, and he was only 21/22 at the time. And before West Ham's myriad of troubles last season, he had proved he can more than cut it in the more physical English game.
 
For me, Benayoun is a 'footballer's footballer'. He's not flashy, and hasn't played for fashionable clubs or a major nation, but he really understands how to do those classic Liverpool things: find space, pass-and-move, and play with intelligence. He's a team player, who will be comfortable taking part in fast, passing football. Closer to a Ray Houghton than a John Barnes, he has a lot to offer.
 
For me, Benayoun is a 'footballer's footballer'. He's not flashy, and hasn't played for fashionable clubs or a major nation, but he really understands how to do those classic Liverpool things: find space, pass-and-move, and play with intelligence. He's a team player, who will be comfortable taking part in fast, passing football. Closer to a Ray Houghton than a John Barnes, he has a lot to offer.

Andriy Voronin may not be a 'glamour' signing; and as a free transfer the pressure is off. But he's a player with pace, strength and good technique, who can chip in with a few goals from deeper positions.
 
The more I see of Ryan Babel, the latest acquisition, the more convinced I am that he can become very special. His goals record for a young winger (who also plays behind the main striker) is impressive.
 
Having made his Ajax debut at 17 and his full national debut at 18, he has been learning the game in public, and is not yet the finished article. Most wingers become increasingly prolific after a few years of steady development in their early 20s (see John Barnes, Harry Kewell and Christiano Ronaldo). The early seasons are all about adjustment.
 
At 19/20/21 Ronaldo (like Wayne Rooney) wasn't a player who could make enough impact, either creatively or in terms of goals, to push United towards a title. But at 22/23, he was. Had he been this good in 2003, he'd have either cost United three times as much, or someone like Real Madrid or AC Milan would have outbid them. It's often about buying players on the cusp of greatness, as AC Milan did with £5m Kaka, because those already fully established as great just don't change hands very often, and if they do, it's for megabucks.
 
Scoring goals as a winger takes a bit of learning beyond simply how to finish; it’s about knowing when to get into the box and when to stay out wide. Unlike young strikers, they aren't guaranteed lots of chances, so have to learn how to beat top-class keepers with fewer opportunities, and also, when to go for goal or look for a striker who may well be better placed. Inexperience means they might go for goal when a pass would be the better option, and then, following a few ‘polite’ words from the strikers, try to appease them when they’d be better off shooting themselves.
 
Babel is equally happy up front, and it's up to him to prove what is his most effective position –– not for where he wins rave reviews as an individual, but where he can help the team win games.
 
At just 20, he already has four international goals in 14 games for a major footballing nation, as well as being so far ahead of most other players of the same age he starred as the Dutch won the U21 European Championship. He may not be as developed as Chelsea's Florent Malouda, but he has the potential to be better. Marco van Basten, the Holland manager and one of the game's greatest centre-forwards, said Babel could be the next Thierry Henry. That's praise indeed.
 
Interestingly, Fernando Torres reminds me somewhat of the ex-Arsenal star. But that doesn't mean either will be the 'new' Henry; after all, English football waited 140 years for a player like Henry in the first place. Being reminiscent of a world-class player does not mean being an identikit, or a cast-iron certainty to reproduce his achievements. But it's better than resembling Luke Chadwick.
 
Lucas Leiva is another 20 year-old with immense potential. This is, after all, the youngest-ever Brazilian Footballer of the Year. Less of an attacking flair-merchant like Kaka (the previous youngest recipient of that honour, back in 2003), Lucas is a box-to-box midfielder who can do a bit of everything.
 
While I've gone out on a limb in the past, and successfully backed what were seen as slightly left-field signings, like 35-year-old Gary McAllister in 2000 and Peter Crouch in 2005, I've also been wrong about players like Fernando Morientes and Djibril Cissé. I thought the former could overcome a lack of pace with his intelligence, but injuries and a loss of confidence held him back. Cissé, who can score goals, lacked the control for the more patient football Liverpool changed to under Benítez.
 
But from what I can see, the new signings have no such apparent drawbacks.
 
While I think Babel, Torres, Lucas and Voronin have the necessary armoury to succeed –– skill, pace, strength and a good attitude –– it's important to give them time to adjust to the Premiership, and grow into their roles in the team. Rather than go for overpriced or average Premiership players who may need less time adjusting, Benítez has taken the necessary long-term view.
 
It has to be remembered that no player is a robot; you can't transpose him from one environment to another and expect him to put in the exact same performances. Like those warnings on financial advertisements, 'your investment can go up or down'. A new club, new city/country/language, new manager, new team-mates, new training regime, new tactics –– all these things affect a player, either positively or negatively.
 
A bigger club with much better players and a really top-class manager can lift a player to new heights. Competition for places can propel him to new levels of consistency. A bigger stadium, more passionate support, and higher-profile games can inspire him. Rotation can keep him hungry and fresh.
 
Alternatively, he can struggle to get onto the wavelength of his new team-mates or manager. Competition for places can make him insecure, perhaps leading to him trying too hard. The pressure of a big club can see him wilt. Rotation can disrupt his flow.
 
How can a manager know how all of these things will pan out in advance? He can't. All he can do is research the player's skills and personality, and hope the blend with his team-mates is successful. Oh, and that there's a good helping of luck for all concerned. An early injury never helps, while, if a striker, scoring a goal or two early on removes a lot of pressure.
 
It's a type of survival of the fittest. Those who adapt the way the manager hopes get to stay; those who don't are shipped out. The aim must be that, in time, the successes remain in place with years ahead of them to shine, while the 'failures' are let go.
 
In theory they all look perfect for England, with only Benayoun looking less physically imposing –– but he's already been a hit here.

Only time will tell how far it will take the Reds this season, or whether it's another year or two until it all comes together to perfection. It's not about making excuses, or talking about three or five year plans, just being realistic. This was a very young Liverpool squad, and now lots of new young players have been added to it. As they mature, the team will naturally improve.

If all goes well, with every passing year there will be more key men in place; and so even if only half of the new additions each season are outright successes, then it will mean a significant step forward.
 
For instance, Xabi Alonso and Josemi were two early Benítez signings in 2004/05; the former remains a crucial player and can be so for many years, while the latter was soon traded in. In 2005 Pepe Reina, Momo Sissoko and Peter Crouch were bought, and remain important figures; by contrast, Bolo Zenden was released this summer. Daniel Agger and Robbie Fowler arrived in January 2006; the latter left this summer having done a decent job, but the former could be at centre-half for the next decade and beyond.
 
Last summer Kuyt and Bellamy were signed; the former has the chance to form an exciting partnership with Fernando Torres, while the latter was recently sold for a profit. In midfield, Mark Gonzalez struggled after a promising start, but Jermaine Pennant got better as the season went on, and the snapping up of Javier Mascherano was an inspired addition.
 
And crucially, out of all Benítez's many successes in the transfer market, only Luis Garcia is no longer at the club.
 
Liverpool have managed to hold onto all their much-coveted stars –– but as Benítez bought players in their early-20s, he's not had to bid any farewell due to age. Had he gambled on quick-fire solutions –– top-class 30-somethings who'd last a season or two at most –– the core of the side could need rebuilding this summer. As it is, it's been about improving on the notable talent already in place.
 
So despite some (inevitable) failures in the transfer market, and those purchases like Bellamy who didn't fail but didn't set the world alight either, the core of the side has grown stronger and broader each year. With the possible exception of Steve Finnan (who may yet defy time), none of the Reds' key men will be 'over-the-hill' within the next four years.
 
For me, there are a lot of parallels with the Arsenal team that started to emerge in the three years before the league and FA Cup double in 2002. Wenger's 1998 success, like Benítez's in Istanbul and Cardiff, was an early fillip, coming within two years of taking over. But it was five years before Wenger's team really started to make its mark, winning the title in 2002 and, as 'Invincibles', again in 2004.
 
Key experienced players like David Seaman, Tony Adams and Dennis Bergkamp –– inherited when he took over –– were still in place in 2002; for Liverpool, read Jamie Carragher, Steve Finnan and Steven Gerrard.
 
An essential early central-midfield addition from the manager's homeland –– Patrick Vieira (Xabi Alonso) –– had adapted seamlessly to the English game, while a relatively recently-acquired centre-back, Sol Campbell (Daniel Agger) was winning rave reviews.
 
Perhaps Wenger's key signings were Thierry Henry in 1999, and Robert Pires in 2000. Which bears comparison with Benítez's signings this summer: the addition of that extra bit of attacking flair, and the potential for brilliance.
 
Also, it’s worth noting that Manchester United, league winners in 2003, added Ronaldo that summer and Rooney a year later, but it was 2006/07 before these two key attackers won the club its next major trophy. There was no shortcut for them.
 
Patience is crucial, when it comes to building a team, and regarding each individual. Had Juventus shown the patience Arsenal did with Theirry Henry, they wouldn't have so quickly offloaded someone who became the best in the world. Of course, Arsenal, with Arsene Wenger and numerous other Frenchmen, was more conducive to Henry succeeding. But even then, after four months –– as it was with Bergkamp and Pires –– Henry was not considered a success. It took time.
 
So when do you judge a player? After one season at Liverpool, Emile Heskey was an unqualified success. After four he wasn't. After one year at Arsenal, Pires was a flop. After four he was a runaway hit. Even the best players in the world have had poor seasons now and again; but two in a row would suggest either an inability to hack it, staleness, serious injury concerns, or an irreversible decline.
 
What excites me most is that wrapped up in the newcomers is a real mix of strength, pace, height and top-notch skill. In theory they all look perfect for England, with only Benayoun looking less physically imposing –– but he's already been a hit here.
 
Only time will tell how far it will take the Reds this season, or whether it's another year or two until it all comes together to perfection. It's not about making excuses, or talking about three or five year plans, just being realistic. This was a very young Liverpool squad, and now lots of new young players have been added to it. As they mature, the team will naturally improve.
 
Realistically, the Reds can win the league next season; but, barring disaster, the team should be even more prepared a year later (as were Arsenal back at the start of the decade). It can take time to integrate so many new key players. Manchester United have also strengthened this year, while Chelsea will come back like the proverbial wounded animal. (Of course, we can but hope it's less wounded lion and more wounded hedgehog.) So it will be tough, whatever happens.
 
Of course, it would take us to dreamland if the handful of new attacking players have anything like the impact Kenny Dalglish's signings did that glorious season two decades ago.
 
If they get close, we could be in for success that lasts a few years.


*** NOte LFC2007 - I didn not write all this !!  :laugh:
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Postby burjennio » Wed Jul 18, 2007 3:47 pm

Top notch post Reg and one thats got me EVEN MORE exicited about the start of the season, I think I better lie down:p
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Postby Bad Bob » Wed Jul 18, 2007 3:53 pm

Tomkins makes a good point about being patient.  I know the impulse is to want to see a return on these investments straight away--and I think we will, to a certain extent.  But, I think it will take until the 2008-2009 season for things to really start to gel for us.  I think if Torres and Babel can overcome the stigma of their price tags and bed in well, we'll have a really exciting young team on our hands--a team that will only get better as they play together season after season. :nod
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Postby Penguins » Wed Jul 18, 2007 4:23 pm

Well, I generally like tomkins articles even if some are overly optimistic.

I do like the fact that he mentions Henry/Pires and Rooney/Ronaldo as examples.

Even if they are class players they did need a few seasons to really show their potential.

I see Torres and especially Babel in the same way.
To expect instant success from day 1 is something I'd find a bit weird. They'd come good, but all great players till needs time in a new league and new enviroment.

Drogba is another example. 1st 2 seasons he was ok, nothing more nothing less.

I'd expect to see a true title challenge around 2009-2010 when Torres as got a couple of seasons under his belt and Babel hopefully at the age of 23 has matured into a top class player. Most players like Alonso, Masch, etc will be entering their prime at that moment also.

The future looks very red, but only this summer has rafa been allowed to get some higher ranked targets. I am not saying the previous 3 years was a waste cause he did pick up some great players along the way but the devlopment of the team will move faster along now when Rafa isn't forced to gamble on 4th choices and sell them after a season.
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Postby scouser 'til I die » Wed Jul 18, 2007 4:38 pm

No offence but I could not be arsed reading all that :laugh: but reading the other posts gives me a general idea of the post, and i cannot agree more. We do need to be patient. The players we have brought in straight away won't become world class superstars overnight. And who knows, someone out the blue who has been with us for a while could shine out and become one of our best players - kuyt springs to mind, would like to see him bang in 20+ this season.

On a whole we can only wait and hope, we may not challenge for the title this year- we might stay in the race but I cant see us showing any large intent of actually getting first place - but in the next seasons we could be looking at our 19th title and then 20th then 21st etc :D
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Postby scouser 'til I die » Wed Jul 18, 2007 4:45 pm

Just read it all good post Reg :D
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Postby Reg » Wed Jul 18, 2007 4:57 pm

scouser 'til I die wrote:Just read it all good post Reg :D

I know... I know... I´m knackered.........  :D  :D
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Postby god_bless_john_houlding » Thu Jul 19, 2007 1:21 am

I've been hearing we need to patient for 10-15 years. My patience is running out, wheter thats because I grew up with Liverpool winning the league every other year I don't know, but I am growing worried that while we are being patient United and Chelsea will be strenghting their sides with more world beaters and we have to make do with the best of the rest i.e. Kuyt instead of Shevchenko (even though Shevchenko has been a flop), we have to pick Sissoko instead of Essien. I see this pattern continuing until we finally win our 19th title. I think next year United and Chelsea will strenghten even more and Arsenal's youngsters will start to come good while we are falling further and further behind. Hopefully this won't happen but that's all I can see happening.

Also I think price tags of 20 odd million for the likes of Torres cause expectations to rise. We will expect something in return for that money but the press and media will put a lot more pressure on the lad because of that price tag. I think Torres would be best listening to our fans than the media who just want to see him fail. Babel I think is our 1st choice left winger because Kewell is injury prone nowadays. Riise is getting worse year in year out and Aurellio is already out till Christmas, and even then I don't see him dislodging Babel. The only way Babel won't be chosen is if Rafa puts Mascheranho and Alonso in the middle, shoving Gerrard out on to the right and putting Yossi on the left.

Going back to the pateince argument. This is Rafa's 4th season, I think we have to seriously deliver this season domestically. I think time is running out for Rafa and there isn't a lot of pateince left in fans, certainlly those like myself who were acustomed to Liverpool being crowned champions of England. The new summer signings have assured so many people, me included, that Rafa is looking to take us to that next level but I honestly believe we have to achieve that this year.
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2) pass and move is the Liverpool groove
3) FIRST WILL ALWAYS BE FIRST AND SECOND WILL ALWAYS BE NOTHING.
4) If Torres has scored 60 league goals for Liverpool by the start of the 2011/12 season, I'll say he's better than Owen.
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Postby Reg » Thu Jul 19, 2007 2:49 am

Arsenal and ManUre eventually toppled the greatest winning streak ever known in football. They didnt copy us, they went their own way.

The key factors, they both had, and STILL have (the same) great managers.

Fergie was nearly sacked before he brought success, Wenger has been accused of being the most boring man in football. We have Rafa with the potential to join the mangerial greats but he needs time.

Dont blame Rafa for Ged's lack of league success.

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Postby Bad Bob » Thu Jul 19, 2007 3:35 am

god_bless_john_houlding wrote:I've been hearing we need to patient for 10-15 years. My patience is running out, wheter thats because I grew up with Liverpool winning the league every other year I don't know, but I am growing worried that while we are being patient United and Chelsea will be strenghting their sides with more world beaters and we have to make do with the best of the rest i.e. Kuyt instead of Shevchenko (even though Shevchenko has been a flop), we have to pick Sissoko instead of Essien. I see this pattern continuing until we finally win our 19th title. I think next year United and Chelsea will strenghten even more and Arsenal's youngsters will start to come good while we are falling further and further behind. Hopefully this won't happen but that's all I can see happening.

Also I think price tags of 20 odd million for the likes of Torres cause expectations to rise. We will expect something in return for that money but the press and media will put a lot more pressure on the lad because of that price tag. I think Torres would be best listening to our fans than the media who just want to see him fail. Babel I think is our 1st choice left winger because Kewell is injury prone nowadays. Riise is getting worse year in year out and Aurellio is already out till Christmas, and even then I don't see him dislodging Babel. The only way Babel won't be chosen is if Rafa puts Mascheranho and Alonso in the middle, shoving Gerrard out on to the right and putting Yossi on the left.

Going back to the pateince argument. This is Rafa's 4th season, I think we have to seriously deliver this season domestically. I think time is running out for Rafa and there isn't a lot of pateince left in fans, certainlly those like myself who were acustomed to Liverpool being crowned champions of England. The new summer signings have assured so many people, me included, that Rafa is looking to take us to that next level but I honestly believe we have to achieve that this year.

I don't think it's inconsistent to say we need to be patient but still move up a level.  What I mean is that we should expect to be challenging for the title this season--giving it a real proper go (which is moving up a level).  But, I suspect we may just come up a bit short this season, with new players bedding in, etc.  So, we need to be patient enough to stick with Rafa and his system, as I honestly feel that he'll deliver us the title within the next 3 years.
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Postby mungi » Thu Jul 19, 2007 7:54 am

ive always enjoyed reading tomkins columns, generally he seems to be right most of the time
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Postby Roger Red Hat » Thu Jul 19, 2007 11:19 am

can anyone list our in's and out's so far. I'm struggling to find the details. With prices paid would be a help too.

thanks
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Postby duk » Thu Jul 19, 2007 11:28 am

Babel I think is our 1st choice left winger

:laugh:
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Postby duk » Thu Jul 19, 2007 11:29 am

I think time is running out for Rafa and there isn't a lot of pateince left in fans


speak for your self mate
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Postby Dutchsky » Thu Jul 19, 2007 11:47 am

Reg wrote:His goals record for a young winger (who also plays behind the main striker) is impressive.

?
2003/04  AFC Ajax Eredivisie 1 played 0 goals
2004/05  AFC Ajax Eredivisie 20 p 7 g
2005/06  AFC Ajax Eredivisie 25 p 2 g
2006/07  AFC Ajax Eredivisie 27 p 5 g

International matches played: 14
Goals 4 ( 3 in friendly matches, 1 in qual. against rumenia)


His selection in the dutch squad made most people frown; because he wasn't a regular in Ajax and his record and rating at that moment didn't justifcy his squadselection.
But Van Basten has his own way (he didnt select Van Nistelrooy for a while <unbelievable>()
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