Liverpool FC Forum

My brother looks at things from a statistical perspective. He explains our decline as the 'reversion to mean' statistical theory.

Basically you have above average stand out occurrences, ie Mo has a way above average player (positional sense, dribble/shoot/score ratio, or VVD wins above average one on one or Robbo/Trent have above average assists). These abnormal statistical performances are not linear. They can't and they don't happen in every situation, ie every game. Mo can only play brilliantly in 15 games per season, VVD 25 and TAA in 18 depending on position, physical demands, age etc..

The more you play a stand out performer, the more their brilliant performances are dilluted by average performances;and should the team be over played, the less dominating we are and the greater the chance we'll lose. Slobo is a great example: started off strong then reverted to mean, a shadow of his early season performance.

In short, the more you play a great player, the less-great they play with the outcome they revert to 'mean'. Hence we started out going for 4 cups and we ended up with the Carabao. Only because it was the first cup to be finalised. Nunez isn't a great talent so over playing him has actually worsened his effectiveness not improved it. His shoot/miss rate now is worse than it was at the beginning of the season. Klopp has no idea about reversion to mean, he somehow believes if he's over played he'll improve.

This is why City with their bigger spend on a greater number of quality players maintain their momentum because Pep can rotate and keep his key players fresh ensuring their performances remain 'above average'. The greater the overall quality of the squad, the greater the ability to maintain momentum, ensure your over-achievers remain fresh and neither individual players nor team revert to mean.

Of course you can get this wrong by spending tons of money on the wrong players such as Chelsea have done, or by having the wrong manager as Man United repeatedly do.

Mo, VVD, TAA, Robbo and Ali have been overplayed since 2019. Elliot, Jones, Gakpo and Nunez aren't good enough. MacAllister is a solid addition and Slobo will be if he is used intelligently. The new manager shouldn't despair, if we focus on just CL and EPL next season and bring in a couple of core players then we can go again, but we have to have a plan that sees our first team core go from 14 players to 20, to 24 over the next 3-4 windows. Chelsea and right, you can't avoid spending the money.

Google reversion to mean and read up on it.

I forgot to mention, the GPS device the players have on their backs doesn't just show positions, speed and distance, it also shows heart beat and blood oxygen levels. Klopp and his team have all the evidence they need to see how tired the players are but still persist in over playing them.

So that's basically "fatigue" with extra words. I'm sure Klopp is aware of it, he tries as much as he can to rotate, as much as the squad allows it. We can't do it like City can and there isn't much we can do about that bar getting some oil country to own us as well.

For this season though, the core Man City players have actually played more minutes than our players. I don't know about previous seasons but this season they've played more games and more minutes and they're still going strong. I wrote this in a different thread, for example Rodri has played 3700 minutes, Foden 3800, Ruben Dias 3600 minutes, Walker 3300, Silva 3200, Haaland 3400 and a few others with 3000 minutes+ while we only have van Dijk with with 3600 minutes and only Gomez, Mac Allister and Diaz have 3000 minutes or more. I bet Arsenal have more minutes too. So compared to our rivals our players were definitely not overplayed this season and with the lack of CL football we simply had no excuse to suddenly run out of steam like this.

I wouldn't say we have a squad full of academy players that are inexperienced. The only ones I can think of are Bradley, Williams, Quansah, Bajectic and Doak. Only 2 feature out of that.

We know playing for klopp takes a lot out of the players but he has been really good with his substitutions all season. Used all 5 in plenty as well. We still dominate games but the lack of quality in finishing them is what's killing us. We create the chances as well so it's more a player problem than a klopp one imo. Nunez, Salah, Diaz and Gakpo are all guilty of some horrific misses. They score most of those chances and confidence is through the roof elevating the entire squad. I don't think we can be that critical of him either as we all would have jumped at the thought of a 2nd, 3rd or 4th place last summer with a trophy. 
Playing for a big club means you have to be able to push all the way to the end and have a manager who knows how to achieve that. Klopp is only 2nd to Guardiola in that regard. Obviously he isn't perfect and does make mistakes but can't say costing us the title this year is one of them.

The ship stays the same so we will see what the new captain can get from it next season.

We've had a strange season, new mid, injuries, inconsistent new comers and existing players.
Ironically we were keeping the flow going when players were in Afcon and when we had injuries. That was when the other lads in the squad like Quansah, Bradley were given playing time.

Regardless of being "burnt out", "lack of depth", our main issue has been conversion of chances. Had Nunez, Salah converted a fraction of the chances they got we would be in a alternative position, mood right now and threads like this wouldn't even exist.

Nunez has played 2966 mins, as Damjan said some City players like Foden, Rodri and still performing consistently even though they have played way more than him. Nunez is not burnt out or fatigued, his just shyte infront of goal.

Liverpool players with highest mins - VVD 3712 / Diaz 3312/ Mcalister 3175/ Gomez 3004 / Nunez 2966
Arsenal players with highest mins - Saliba 4142 / Gabreil 4002 / Rice 3914 / Rice 3745 / Odegaard 3694 / Saka 3607 / Havertz 3466

I don't see Arsenal players being "burnt out" considering the amount of mins that they have played.  Our issue is lack of fluidity and being poor up front, no real cohesion within the team. Many times this season you see us with a crazy amount of possession, but what do we do??? Pass sideways and backwards. It comes down to quality and cohesion within each area of the team.

For argument sake lets remove Nunez and instil Kane, guarantee you guys we would be top and adrift by a few points. Our issue within the squad is lack of quality players.

Nunez is on his 2nd season and still has the same issues.
New arrivals have been on and off, Mcalister only came in form once he played in his designated role along side Endo.  Sboz since his injury has been shyte, Gravenburch is a waste of funds and Endo is inconsistent also.

redshade » Fri Apr 26, 2024 11:37 am wrote:Liverpool players with highest mins - VVD 3712 / Diaz 3312/ Mcalister 3175/ Gomez 3004 / Nunez 2966
Arsenal players with highest mins - Saliba 4142 / Gabreil 4002 / Rice 3914 / Rice 3745 / Odegaard 3694 / Saka 3607 / Havertz 3466

I don't see Arsenal players being "burnt out" considering the amount of mins that they have played. 

You miss the point that the core Liverpool players have been played in every game for the last 7 seasons, This is Arsenal's first 'big' season. Nunez doesn't have the same stamina as Mo, as evidenced by his lack of concentration in not even knowing where the goal is when he shoots. Each player has limitations as to teams. Liverpool have been running on fumes for 2+ seasons, Klopp is famous for getting 'the best out of his players', we're always praised as performing above our weight: all the evidence you need is right in front of your eyes.

Klopp is a great man manager but I'd be fascinated to know how and why he and Michael Edwards fell out and I wouldn't be surprised that fall out is behind our inability to get over the line,

As interesting as the stats and analysis are I honestly believe they simply overly complicate the real problem. We have stuttered our way through the entire season. Injuries to key players haven’t helped. On many occasions I have said LFC don’t do easy.Mistake after mistake have meant have meant we are chasing the game time and time again because we have allowed the opposition to take a relatively early lead through our own ineptitude rather than their brilliance. This obviously puts more pressure on our forwards who this season simply haven’t been good enough. Quite frankly it is remarkable what Klopp has achieved what he has with this team.

Unfortunately, there is simply one key reason for our problems. Compared to both City and Arsenal our lack of stand out high quality players is frustratingly poor. Obviously, because we lack real quality in so many areas this results in a quality of play that is down to grit and determination rather than the free flowing brilliant football demonstrated by City and Arsenal. You only have to look at their performances this week compared to our own pathetic display against Everton. It saddens me to admit that this team simply isn’t good enough. We currently only have one real world class player in Ali. VVD is the only other player who could be considered world class. Mo has fallen off the graph and at this point in time could not be considered world class.

So in summary forget all the stats, monitors and graphs and get back to the most basic of reasons for success. High quality stand out players win you games. It doesn’t matter how good a carpenter is, if he has a blunt chisel then he will have a serious problem !!

Reg » Fri Apr 26, 2024 6:08 am wrote:

redshade » Fri Apr 26, 2024 11:37 am wrote:Liverpool players with highest mins - VVD 3712 / Diaz 3312/ Mcalister 3175/ Gomez 3004 / Nunez 2966
Arsenal players with highest mins - Saliba 4142 / Gabreil 4002 / Rice 3914 / Rice 3745 / Odegaard 3694 / Saka 3607 / Havertz 3466

I don't see Arsenal players being "burnt out" considering the amount of mins that they have played. 

Klopp is a great man manager but I'd be fascinated to know how and why he and Michael Edwards fell out and I wouldn't be surprised that fall out is behind our inability to get over the line,

I've long suspected that Klopp and Edwards may have been at loggerheads when it comes to how we approach player recruitment.

Infact would not be surprised at all if one of the reasons Klopp chose to call it a day was due to knowing FSG were looking to bring Edwards back and him not being on fully on board with the decision.

Klopp is too big a manager to be dictated to. One of the best in the world and where ever he goes next, he'll be bringing success.

I'm not surprised we've gone for Arne Slot.....he'll be a guy who will be happy to be led by Edwards when it comes to player recruitment because he has landed one of the biggest jobs in world football after only a few seasons of managing and will happily play ball for now. If he is successful and his stock grows, no doubt he'll be wanting more control and input.

Klopp announcing he was going could also be a factor in some of the players performing badly. What is going on behind the scenes in terms of atmosphere etc.

Why last summer was he committed for 2 years then 3 months later says no. What happened during that time for him to change his mind. Is it the documentary that we are doing because he did say years ago he wouldn't do one or is it a fallout from last years summer dealings. He was made look a right tit by big boots Billy over the caiceido business. He spent months telling everyone we didn't have the money and then suddenly he goes over klopp and puts in a 110mil bid. He was negotiating with Lavia as well which ended up making him look a fool.

His relationship with Edwards is reportedly not good and now he's back with even more control. Talk already about tying up Slot in the next few days which imo is bad taste as we are still in our season and so are they. Is all this unfolding around him and we are making moves like he isn't there. Lately he looks so dejected and beaten which is sad to see.

Is it players Edwards wanted to buy, or players he wanted to sell? Klopp holds onto players too long.... Ox, Lallana, Thiago etc.. he gets emotionally attached to them.

I guess we'll have to wait for the autobiography.

Reg » Fri Apr 26, 2024 5:12 pm wrote:Is it players Edwards wanted to buy, or players he wanted to sell? Klopp holds onto players too long.... Ox, Lallana, Thiago etc.. he gets emotionally attached to them.

I guess we'll have to wait for the autobiography.

Good point.  Remember having a good chat with someone who works at the club and it was indicated the powers that be were reluctant to give Henderson a contract back in 2021 when he was 31. Edwards and his team felt he was on the decline and it was time to move him on however Klopp pushed hard against that and insisted he wanted to keep hold of him and in the end they bowed to his demand.

I'm not convinced all was that rosy between Klopp and Edwards. Klopp is an elite coach but during his time with us, Edwards has also massively increased his stock and built a solid reputation and feel there has been bit of a power struggle there. FSG regard Edwards highly and wouldn't be surprised if they made it known to Klopp they were looking to bring him back and maybe that tipped Klopp into calling it a day. Let's be honest, he will be the most in demand manager when/if he looks to return to management and will have his pick of clubs.

I think it was timing and it just clicked with Klopp and Liverpool and Edwards was a part of the success. There is no doubt that Klopp is a great manager but his stock went up too when he came to Liverpool. I think it would be fair to say it clicked with Ferguson, Wenger, even Maureen on his first stint. Once again these are all good managers but do you think Fergie would have been as successful with another club had he left ten years in? Had he gone to Middlesbrough could he have emulated the success he had at ManUre?

Klopp never made us, we made him as good a manager as he is.