kazza » Thu May 18, 2017 12:44 am wrote:I would say that if we had a better defense we would have scored more goals. So many times this season a jittery defense encouraged the other team only for them to park the bus once they scored. If we had a better defense I think we will score more with the players we have since they will see more open games.
I'd argue the opposite. Look at the goals conceded when Mane (and to a lesser extent Coutinho) is out of the side. It's not a coincidence. When we have 70%+ possession and aren't able to create and take good chances, we commit more bodies forward and quite often end up conceding as a result.
I keep saying that this notion of 'improve defense, win more' is a flawed one because defending better imo would mean sacrificing a bit going forward. Our attacking play -and everyone will agree on this- is the only reason we are where we are in the league. I'd argue that if we were 10% better off defensively and 10% worse off going forward we wouldnt be in the top4 now. See Utd as a good example of a side that didnt take enough risks throughout the season.
A better way to look at it would be looking at the games where we've conceded goals and dropped points and seeing where small improvements can be made. The only games were we conceded 1 or no goals and haven't won have been against Spurs, Utd (x2), Southampton(x2), Chelsea, and City.
Off the bat, set pieces are an issue. If we had a Van Dijk instead of a Lovren, we'd concede less from set pieces and crosses. Outside that, you'd have to look at it on a per game basis to judge. For simplicity, I've looked at the games where we conceded 2 or more goals in the league.
In 11 games were we conceded 2 or more, we won 2, drew 3, and lost 6. Disregard the 2 we won.
Burnley (away) 2-0
- No Mane
- Klavan at CB, no Matip
- 80%+ possession, 26 shots (burnley 3), 5 on target (burnley 2)
Bournemouth (away) 4-3
- Mane subbed off at 69mins with us winning 1-3
- Lucas at CB, no Matip
- No Lallana, no Coutinho
-They scored 3 in last 15mins
- 60%+ possession, 2 clearcut chances missed -0 to Bournemouth
West Ham (home) 2-2
- No Coutinho
- 67%+ possession, 19 shots (West Ham 8)
Sunderland (away) 2-2
- No Coutinho
- Klavan at CB, no Matip
- conceded from 2 penalties (equalizer in 84th min) after taking forward off and bringing Lucas on
- 70%+ possession, 21 shots (Sunderland 10), 15 on target (Sunderland 5), 2 clearcut chances missed -0 to Sunderland
Swansea (away) 3-2
- No Mane
- Klavan at CB, no Matip
- 73%+ possession, 16 shots (Swans 6), 5 on target (Swans 3)
Hull (away) 2-0
- Lucas at CB, no Lovren
- 72%+ possession, 22 shots (Hull 7)
- Terrible game for us going forward, caught on counter twice
Leicester (away) 3-1
- Lucas at CB, no Lovren
- 70% possession, 17 shots (Leicester 14)
- Poor down both ends of the pitch
Bournemouth (home) 2-2
- No Mane
- Klavan at CB, no Matip to start
- No Lallana
-Coutinho subbed off for Matip at 69 mins at 2-1 - they scored equalizer in 87th minute
- 66%+ possession, 20 shots (Bournemouth 8), 8 on target (Bournemouth 2), 3 clearcut chances missed - 2 to Bournemouth
Crystal Palace(home) 1-2
- No Mane
- 3 at the back
- No Lallana
-Subs only made in last 10mins, terrible bench
- Conceded both goals from crosses
- 72%+ possession, 14 shots (CP 7)
Most of the goals we conceded are either on the counter or from crosses. In most of the games, we've had more than double the possession of the opposition and more than double the attempts. Personally, I think Lovren & Matip are 2 of the best CBs in the league; the only reason I'd replace one of them (and it's a toss up between them for me) is to add a CB who is better at dealing with crosses. Down the other end, I think it's obvious we struggle when Mane in particular is not on the pitch. We concede more, score less, and are more prone to getting caught on the counter. Our forwards, Firmino and to a lesser extend Origi, are nowhere near clinical enough. They both need a number of good chances to be created for them to score, most top forwards create and take chances out of nothing.