Don't panic mr mainwaring
Posted: Sun Aug 30, 2009 9:26 amWe could have set a new record low for Premiership starts had we lost yesterday, up until the red card that looked quite possible. It is still not a great start, but IF we can win the next two games then we're back up where we were last season. Chelski are in ominous form, but haven't played anyone strong yet (Hull, Sunderland, Fulham and Burnley)
Liverpool 09/10 : P4 W2 D0 L2 F9 A7 PTS 6
and at selected stages of last season
Liverpool 08/09 : P5 W3 D2 L0 F5 A2 PTS 11
Liverpool 08/09 : P11 W8 D2 L1 F16 A8 PTS 26
Liverpool 08/09 : P19 W12 D6 L1 F30 A12 PTS 42
Liverpool 08/09 : P27 W15 D10 L2 F43 A20 PTS 55
A win in the next game and we'd be only two points worse off than last season. We did then win five in a row before losing to spudz at WHL (which we've done already) so seven straight wins and we'd be one point better off. Seven straight wins is a big ask, but it's what the mancs pull out the hat when they need it (and better) and what we need to do to catch the early leaders up.
After that spudz defeat last season we drew four of the next eight games, and to reach 42 points from where we are now is 36 points from 15 games so certainly possible (12 wins) and what we need to be aiming at if we want to win the league. Our spell after the halfway mark cost us the title - P8 W3 D4 L1 F13 A8 PTS 13 so we may be trailing but there are spells in last season which we can improve on - as long as we don't slip up, that being the catch as we have already
Any which way you look at it, we need to go on a winning run. Last season was blighted by draws and to a far lesser degree defeats which interrupted our wins. Title rivals are always looking for their rivals to drop points, you need to keep winning and the one who keeps winning the most consistently wins the league. We started off 10 games unbeaten, we went 15 unbeaten after the defeat at WHL and ended 11 unbeaten with 10 wins and a draw. BUT at no point did we win more than five games in a row and haven't done that since 05/06 when we won 10 in a row after picking up just 10 points from the opening eight games and finished by winning 9 in a row
05/06
Games 01-08 : P8 W2 D4 L2 F5 A8 PTS 10
Games 09-18 : P10 W10 D0 L0 F21 A1 PTS 30
Games 19-29 : P11 W4 D3 L4 F8 A10 PTS 15
Games 30-38 : P9 W9 D0 L0 F23 A6 PTS 27
82 points scored overall, but the four spells very much different. We managed to recover from a poor start then and pass 80 points, but through long winning streaks. But for the second poor spell where we suffered four defeats we might have won the league, three of those defeats away to Arsenal, Man Utd and Chelsea. Compare 05/06 with 08/09, same number of wins but only two defeats in 08/09 compared to six in 05/06. If we'd turned two of those defeats into wins instead we'd be champions.
Maybe we need to look at seven wins per quarter, allowing the extra game over nine for when we do make a bad start. If we reach seven wins from 10 games then I'm sure we'd all be happy, then look to win at least seven from the next nine, repeat if for the next nine and then finish with seven wins from 10 and we'd have 28 wins, one more win than I say is minimum requirement. Look at it that way and you can see there isn't much room to draw when you're aiming for seven wins in 9/10 games.
Liverpool 09/10 : P4 W2 D0 L2 F9 A7 PTS 6
and at selected stages of last season
Liverpool 08/09 : P5 W3 D2 L0 F5 A2 PTS 11
Liverpool 08/09 : P11 W8 D2 L1 F16 A8 PTS 26
Liverpool 08/09 : P19 W12 D6 L1 F30 A12 PTS 42
Liverpool 08/09 : P27 W15 D10 L2 F43 A20 PTS 55
A win in the next game and we'd be only two points worse off than last season. We did then win five in a row before losing to spudz at WHL (which we've done already) so seven straight wins and we'd be one point better off. Seven straight wins is a big ask, but it's what the mancs pull out the hat when they need it (and better) and what we need to do to catch the early leaders up.
After that spudz defeat last season we drew four of the next eight games, and to reach 42 points from where we are now is 36 points from 15 games so certainly possible (12 wins) and what we need to be aiming at if we want to win the league. Our spell after the halfway mark cost us the title - P8 W3 D4 L1 F13 A8 PTS 13 so we may be trailing but there are spells in last season which we can improve on - as long as we don't slip up, that being the catch as we have already
Any which way you look at it, we need to go on a winning run. Last season was blighted by draws and to a far lesser degree defeats which interrupted our wins. Title rivals are always looking for their rivals to drop points, you need to keep winning and the one who keeps winning the most consistently wins the league. We started off 10 games unbeaten, we went 15 unbeaten after the defeat at WHL and ended 11 unbeaten with 10 wins and a draw. BUT at no point did we win more than five games in a row and haven't done that since 05/06 when we won 10 in a row after picking up just 10 points from the opening eight games and finished by winning 9 in a row
05/06
Games 01-08 : P8 W2 D4 L2 F5 A8 PTS 10
Games 09-18 : P10 W10 D0 L0 F21 A1 PTS 30
Games 19-29 : P11 W4 D3 L4 F8 A10 PTS 15
Games 30-38 : P9 W9 D0 L0 F23 A6 PTS 27
82 points scored overall, but the four spells very much different. We managed to recover from a poor start then and pass 80 points, but through long winning streaks. But for the second poor spell where we suffered four defeats we might have won the league, three of those defeats away to Arsenal, Man Utd and Chelsea. Compare 05/06 with 08/09, same number of wins but only two defeats in 08/09 compared to six in 05/06. If we'd turned two of those defeats into wins instead we'd be champions.
Maybe we need to look at seven wins per quarter, allowing the extra game over nine for when we do make a bad start. If we reach seven wins from 10 games then I'm sure we'd all be happy, then look to win at least seven from the next nine, repeat if for the next nine and then finish with seven wins from 10 and we'd have 28 wins, one more win than I say is minimum requirement. Look at it that way and you can see there isn't much room to draw when you're aiming for seven wins in 9/10 games.
